Challenging conventional thinking pays dividends with regards to assessing hurricane risk. And as the current North Atlantic Hurricane Season marches on, here are five points — some of which are insights from last year’s active season, that can help you to reframe and potentially rethink your view of hurricane risk.
1. Hurricane Threat Is Not Just from Wind or Storm Surge
In many respects, Hurricane Harvey was the standout hurricane from last year’s trio of notable events in Harvey, Irma and Maria. The severe amounts of rainfall from Harvey — more than fifty inches (127 cm) in some areas over southeast Texas in August 2017 — certainly differentiated this event.
In 2014, Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer at RMS, wrote a blog posing the question whether water, and not wind is the primary driver of hurricane risk and corresponding losses. With events like Harvey in 2017, Robert’s viewpoint becomes more and more valid. Although Harvey was a category 4 hurricane at landfall, around 90 percent of the estimated losses were from inland flooding. The dominance of flood-driven losses in recent events — whether they be caused by storm surge, precipitation, or both — argues for a full hurricane catastrophe modeling solution. If tropical cyclone-induced rainfall is not included as a modeled peril, there is every chance of missing a large contribution of total loss for events like Harvey.