Europe Windstorm HD Models
Leverage the HD framework to model a more realistic representation of wind, coastal flood, and climate change risk across 17 European countries.
Five Ways Moody’s RMS High-Definition Modeling Helps You Manage Windstorm Risk
2022 Catastrophe Review:
A look back on an exceptional year of catastrophic events.
Moody's RMS Europe Windstorm HD Models Unify Climate Modeling to Enhance Risk Selection Across the Continent
A Pan-European Peril
Windstorms can cause considerable damage across large domains. While severe windstorms such as Daria in 1990 or Lothar in 1999 may be infrequent, Moody's RMS models provide solutions for multiple use cases, from underwriting to portfolio management and capital adequacy.
Drive Superior Risk Selection
Utilize the latest science and data to improve risk pricing.
Build a More Realistic View of Risk
Better model the complexity of wind and coastal flood risk leveraging the HD model framework.
Unify Climate Modeling
Analyze risk with a consistent approach to hazard and vulnerability across the complete Europe Climate HD model suite.
Build a More Realistic Representation of Wind and Coastal Flood Risk
Spotlight
Five Ways Moody's RMS HD Modeling Helps You Manage European Windstorm Risk
HD Models give you access to the most complete view of climate risk across Europe with geographic coverage of greater than 98 percent gross written premium (GWP) across 17 countries, the inclusion of all sub-perils, and a climate-conditioned view of risk.
Multidecadal Variability of European Windstorms
We first noticed multidecadal variability of European windstorm activity ten years ago, with 50 percent lower frequencies of damaging storms in the new millennium than in the eighties and nineties. This variability is important: A company’s length of loss experience is unlikely to match the model calibration period, which impacts model validation.
Challenges Around Modeling European Windstorm Clustering
The twenty-fifth anniversary of Daria, Herta, Wiebke, and Vivan in 2015 called for an examination of the most damaging cluster of European windstorms on record, and how a modeled view of clustering could help increase understanding.
Related Products
Explore a range of peril risk models to help provide you with a comprehensive model suite across Europe.
Regional and Country Windstorm Models
Regional Models
Click a region on the interactive map to see coverage.
Europe Severe Convective Storm
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Austria
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Belgium
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Czech Republic
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Denmark
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France (including Monaco)
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Germany
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Ireland
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Luxembourg
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Netherlands
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Norway
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Poland
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Slovakia
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Sweden
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Switzerland
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United Kingdom
North America
Latin America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Europe Severe Convective Storm
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Austria
-
Belgium
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Czech Republic
-
Denmark
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France (including Monaco)
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Germany
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Ireland
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Luxembourg
-
Netherlands
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Norway
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Poland
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Slovakia
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Sweden
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Switzerland
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United Kingdom
Resources
One Year Since Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin: Understanding...
In February 2022, a sequence of powerful windstorms known as Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin (also known as Ylenia, Zeynep, and Antonia respectively) caused billions of euros of insured loss in Europe. With the first anniversary of these storms, we are reminded of the need to consider clustering when modeling windstorms in Europe. The 2022 windstorms happened as a large temperature gradient over the North Atlantic led to the formation of a series of low-pressure systems, which were then associated with a strong ...
Then and Now: Fifty Years after Quimburga
On November 13, 1972, now some 50 years ago, one of the strongest and most devastating windstorms struck Europe. Back in 1972, I was a teenager living with my family in northern Germany, and for us, this Autumn day started like any other. My siblings and I took the train to school which was some 15 kilometers (9 miles) from where we lived. At that point, we had no idea that this day would become one that we would remember for the rest of our lives. Quimburga, or the Lower Saxony Storm, originated on Nove...
Five Ways RMS HD Modeling Helps You Manage European Windst...
Windstorms remain the main driver of natural catastrophe insured loss in Europe, due in part to high levels of insurance penetration across the region. While individual claims might be small, the sheer size of these storms means multiple countries at a time are often impacted, resulting in significant cumulative costs to (re)insurers. Regulatory focus is therefore high, with (re)insurers required to provide evidence that they hold adequate capital for these types of events. The complex dynamics of extratr...
Moody's RMS Europe Windstorm HD Models Unify Climate Model...
Flood, hail, and convective storms have dominated conversations in the European insurance market in recent years. This is driven by significant catastrophic events such as the 2021 Western and Central Europe Floods, with insured losses estimated by Moody's RMS to be between €10 billion and €13.2 billion. Severe thunderstorms and convective weather in France earlier this year saw insured losses of €3.9 billion according to France Assureurs. And the February 2022 storm series of Ylenia, Zeynep, and Antonia (na...
Friederike/David: The Day Our Luck Ran Out?
Little more than a week ago, I signed off my previous blog post, discussing storm Eleanor/Burglind, with the following thought: As the number of minor windstorms impacting Europe this season grows, we are left to wonder how many more “near misses” can we experience before our luck runs out? At the time, I further noted that: One-day-out, the forecasts for Friederike were trending towards lower and lower severities As an immature and fast-moving system, these forecasts were subject to high uncertain...
Europe’s Winter Windstorms – the Only Certainty is Uncerta...
The annual damage from European windstorms can range significantly: from years when there are clusters of severely damaging storms to other years with almost no windstorm loss. How much of this volatility can we predict, and how much remains a roll of the dice? And more specifically, what storm activity can we expect over the next few months? Forecasting Storminess Our understanding of the drivers of annual storminess has increased greatly in recent years, allowing us to provide more forecasting insight th...
European Windstorm: Such A Peculiarly Uncertain Risk for S...
Europe’s windstorm season is upon us. As always, the risk is particularly uncertain, and with Solvency II due smack in the middle of the season, there is greater imperative to really understand the uncertainty surrounding the peril—and manage windstorm risk actively. Business can benefit, too: new modeling tools to explore uncertainty could help (re)insurers to better assess how much risk they can assume, without loading their solvency capital. Spikes and Lulls The variability of European windstorm se...
Examining the European Windstorm Outlook This Winter
The 2020–21 European windstorm season kicked off with Storm Alex in early October as a microcosm of this century so far, promising great winds then delivering a lot of water. The previous winter saw many similar weak windstorms, with just one notable event in Ciara/Sabine causing roughly €1.5 billion in losses in February. Will this season extend the run of relatively benign winter winds, or will we see a return to the stormier 1980s and 1990s? In the first part of this blog, we will look at the indicati...
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