Build a More Realistic Representation of Wind and Storm Surge Risk
Native Storm Clustering
Model the time-dependencies of events including, seasonality, clustering, and antecedent conditions.
Flexible Financial Modeling
Express all possible terms and conditions in any (re)insurance contract, including the hours clause.
Enhanced Secondary Uncertainty
Produce a more realistic representation of loss severity and claims distribution with ground-up simulation.
Highly Granular Storm Surge Modeling
Gain high-quality insights regardless of low-resolution exposure data with an advanced disaggregation methodology.
Multidecadal Variability of European Windstorms
We first noticed multidecadal variability of European windstorm activity ten years ago, with 50 percent lower frequencies of damaging storms in the new millennium than in the eighties and nineties. This variability is important: A company’s length of loss experience is unlikely to match the model calibration period, which impacts model validation.
Challenges Around Modeling European Windstorm Clustering
The twenty-fifth anniversary of Daria, Herta, Wiebke, and Vivan in 2015 called for an examination of the most damaging cluster of European windstorms on record, and how a modeled view of clustering could help increase understanding.
Regional and Country Windstorm Models
Friederike/David: The Day Our Luck Ran Out?
Little more than a week ago, I signed off my previous blog post, discussing storm Eleanor/Burglind, with the following thought: As the number of minor windstorms impacting Europe this season grows, we are left to wonder how many more “near misses” can we experience before our luck runs out? At the time, I further noted that: One-day-out, the forecasts for Friederike were trending towards lower and lower severities As an immature and fast-moving system, these forecasts were subject to high unce...
Europe’s Winter Windstorms – the Only Certainty is Uncerta...
The annual damage from European windstorms can range significantly: from years when there are clusters of severely damaging storms to other years with almost no windstorm loss. How much of this volatility can we predict, and how much remains a roll of the dice? And more specifically, what storm activity can we expect over the next few months? Forecasting Storminess Our understanding of the drivers of annual storminess has increased greatly in recent years, allowing us to provide more forecasting insight th...
European Windstorm: Such A Peculiarly Uncertain Risk for S...
Europe’s windstorm season is upon us. As always, the risk is particularly uncertain, and with Solvency II due smack in the middle of the season, there is greater imperative to really understand the uncertainty surrounding the peril—and manage windstorm risk actively. Business can benefit, too: new modeling tools to explore uncertainty could help (re)insurers to better assess how much risk they can assume, without loading their solvency capital. Spikes and Lulls The variability of European windstorm se...
Examining the European Windstorm Outlook This Winter
The 2020–21 European windstorm season kicked off with Storm Alex in early October as a microcosm of this century so far, promising great winds then delivering a lot of water. The previous winter saw many similar weak windstorms, with just one notable event in Ciara/Sabine causing roughly €1.5 billion in losses in February. Will this season extend the run of relatively benign winter winds, or will we see a return to the stormier 1980s and 1990s? In the first part of this blog, we will look at the indicati...
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