How RMS can help you understand this key peril for Europe.
Understand Tail Risk
An innovative hybrid approach that combines numerical and statistical models, as well as historical events to deepen insights.
Enhanced building vulnerability definition and representation of regional construction practices offer variations in vulnerability by geography and risk type.
Granular Hazard Variability
Models incorporate high-resolution surface roughness data for modeling granular hazard variability, calibrated using extensive weather station data.
Model outputs validated against millions of claims, representing several tens of billion of claims.
Multidecadal Variability of European Windstorms
We first noticed multidecadal variability of European windstorm activity ten years ago, with 50 percent lower frequencies of damaging storms in the new millennium than in the eighties and nineties. This variability is important: A company’s length of loss experience is unlikely to match the model calibration period, which impacts model validation.
Challenges Around Modeling European Windstorm Clustering
The twenty-fifth anniversary of Daria, Herta, Wiebke, and Vivan in 2015 called for an examination of the most damaging cluster of European windstorms on record, and how a modeled view of clustering could help increase understanding.
Friederike/David: The Day Our Luck Ran Out?
Little more than a week ago, I signed off my previous blog post, discussing storm Eleanor/Burglind, with the following thought: As the number of minor windstorms impacting Europe this season grows, we are left to wonder how many more “near misses” can we experience before our luck runs out? At the time, I further noted that: One-day-out, the forecasts for Friederike were trending towards lower and lower severities As an immature and fast…
Europe’s Winter Windstorms – the Only Certainty is Uncertainty
The annual damage from European windstorms can range significantly: from years when there are clusters of severely damaging storms to other years with almost no windstorm loss. How much of this volatility can we predict, and how much remains a roll of the dice? And more specifically, what storm activity can we expect over the next few months? Forecasting Storminess Our understanding of the drivers of annual storminess has increased greatly in recent years,…
European Windstorm: Such A Peculiarly Uncertain Risk for Solvency II
Europe’s windstorm season is upon us. As always, the risk is particularly uncertain, and with Solvency II due smack in the middle of the season, there is greater imperative to really understand the uncertainty surrounding the peril—and manage windstorm risk actively. Business can benefit, too: new modeling tools to explore uncertainty could help (re)insurers to better assess how much risk they can assume, without loading their solvency capital. Spikes and…
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