Based in London, James works within Model Development as a member of the RMS Event Response team, supporting real-time Event Response operations and assisting on various Event Response projects. James holds a bachelor’s degree in Physical Geography and Geology from the University of Southampton and a master’s degree in Applied Meteorology from the University of Reading.
This time last year, we were in the thick of a series of Atlantic hurricanes that caught the world’s attention with images of significant damage and destruction. Fast forward to 2018 and it seems that Japan is bearing the brunt of natural catastrophes this summer, with a series of typhoons, floods, and earthquakes dominating global headlines.
The latest headline maker is Super Typhoon Jebi, the fifth typhoon to impact Japan this year and billed by many media outlets as Japan’s most powerful storm in 25 years. The country’s five typhoons are just one symptom of an overall active Pacific basin, alongside a record-setting pace of tropical development in the northeast Pacific. Some outlets tie this increased Pacific activity to an El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which conversely has repressed Atlantic hurricane activity to date.
With alerts ranging from hurricane warnings to storm surge and flood watches, the central Gulf Coast states from Louisiana to the western counties of the Florida Panhandle await the arrival of Tropical Storm Gordon.
Located only 130 miles offshore of Mobile, Alabama, the outer rain bands of Gordon are beginning to bring deteriorating weather conditions to the Florida Panhandle and central Gulf coastline. A band of deep convection near its well-defined surface center and increased lightning activity near the inner core is indicative of an organized system with the potential to intensify. This is reflected in the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, which calls for Gordon to be a Category 1 hurricane when it makes landfall in the north-central Gulf of Mexico coastline later tonight. Gordon looks set to be first hurricane to hit the contiguous U.S. this year, though it is not the first named system to threaten the central Gulf coastline; Alberto affected Louisiana and Alabama earlier in the season as a subtropical storm.
All eyes are on Hurricane Lane as it started to make its northerly turn towards the Hawaiian Islands late yesterday (Wednesday, August 22) and at the time of writing (Thursday, August 23, 1600 UTC) Lane is heading north, some 200 miles from the Hawaiian Islands as a Category 4 major hurricane with wind speeds of 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour).
If Hurricane Lane did make landfall in the state, according to CNN it would become the first major cyclone to achieve this in 26 years, since Hurricane Iniki in 1992. Landfall does not look likely though; the current best-estimate wind field forecasts from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) as of 1000 UTC, Thursday August 23, show that hurricane force winds are not currently expected to impact land. But there is still an outside chance; due to Lane’s forecast track, a shift in the track direction and intensity could bring hurricane force winds onto land. Based on the current CPHC wind speed probability, there is a less than 20 percent chance of hurricane force winds impacting any of the islands in Hawaii.
With the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season underway, the (re)insurance industry is still reflecting on the events of last year. The 2017 season will be remembered as one of the most active, damaging, and costliest seasons on record, and specifically for the impacts of three storms: Harvey, Irma, and Maria.
RMS followed its longstanding strategy of delivering thoughtful and thorough analysis of all available data sources when responding to the events of 2017, including the use of instrumentation and in-person RMS staff research and reconnaissance.
RMS has released its 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review documenting one of the most active, damaging, and costliest seasons on record. The 2017 season saw a total of 17 named storms, with ten of these storms reaching hurricane strength and occurring consecutively within a hyperactive period between August and October. The season will be remembered for its six major hurricanes and specifically for the impacts of three of these storms: Harvey, Irma, and Maria.
The official hurricane season for the North Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30 and encompasses over 97 percent of annual climatological activity. Out-of-season tropical systems — events happening through December to May — are rare, but not unprecedented. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) states that since 1851, 88 storms have been observed in the Atlantic during the off-season — that’s about one out-of-season storm every two years. In theory, this could be an underestimate, as the peer-reviewed literature suggests an undercount of Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the satellite reconnaissance era.
The midway point of the Atlantic hurricane season has just passed, and despite a relatively tame start, we have already witnessed two major U.S. hurricane landfalls — Harvey and Irma — in quick succession. It is the first calendar year on record where two hurricanes of Category 4 strength or greater have made landfall in the contiguous U.S. To add insult to injury, Maria has quickly intensified and is expected to be the fourth major hurricane of the season as it tracks through the Leeward Islands, an area left devastated by Irma less than two weeks ago.
With 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, we have already met the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) definition of an above-average full Atlantic hurricane season. It is understandable that many in the insurance industry may be suffering from “hurricane fatigue” well before the calendar flips over to October.
If we’ve learned anything about forecasts and predictions (pick any recent event, sporting, political etc.) they give an indication of the situation, but cannot predict the absolute outcome, and surprises can most definitely happen. We are into the first weeks of the North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs for six months from June 1 to November 30, and a variety of forecasting groups and agencies have issued preseason forecasts. Continue reading →