Newark, CA – November 4, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Zeta to be between US$3 and US$5 bn. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$200m and US$300m.
U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Zeta (US$ bn):
|Wind + Surge||NFIP||Total|
|2.8 - 4.7||0.2 -0.3||3.0 - 5.0|
This estimate includes wind and storm surge losses across the impacted states, including Louisiana and Mississippi, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Model. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Zeta’s hazards that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. Losses associated with inland flooding are expected to be negligible, due to Zeta’s fast forward speed post-landfall, which kept high rainfall totals to isolated areas.
The RMS estimate includes a 5% reduction in insured onshore losses due to the cumulative impacts of Hurricane Sally, which damaged some of the same region earlier this season.
“We do expect some overlap between Zeta and Sally as the industry settles losses from these two events, but not to the degree of Delta and Laura a few weeks ago. Our Development Team found that approximately 20% of zip codes impacted by Zeta were also impacted by Sally, particularly at lower wind speeds. The overlap in the worst-affected areas of these two storms appears to be minimal. Thus, we expect a smaller loss reduction factor compared to the Delta and Laura events, largely attributed to structures in the overlapping region that sustained some, but not total damage from Sally, followed by additional damage from Zeta,” said Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects most insured losses will be from residential lines.
“Power outages and treefall-driven impacts were two key factors in Zeta. The storm’s fast forward speed brought damaging winds well inland, particularly in areas with an abundance of trees, including metro Atlanta. This, combined with already saturated soil conditions, led to one of the most significant power outages of the season. Some fallen trees also directly damaged buildings and vehicles. We expect these factors to amplify insured losses.” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development.
The estimate also includes losses to the NFIP in the range of US$200 million to US$300 million. NFIP losses were derived using the RMS view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
In Mexico, RMS estimates insured losses from Zeta to be minimal. However, consistent with previous impactful tropical cyclone events this season, overall insured losses constitute a fraction of the total economic losses, particularly in Mexico which has significantly lower rates of insurance take-up compared to the U.S.
Additionally, RMS estimates insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico to not exceed US$500m from wind and wave-driven damages. While platforms in the Central Gulf of Mexico are built with higher deck heights to negotiate wave hazard, Zeta exposed a significant number of state lease platforms to high winds and waves along the Louisiana coast. Offshore losses are based on the October 2020 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database.
Zeta made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana on Wednesday, October 28, 2020 as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Zeta produced sustained winds of 110 mph (177 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Informed by a suite of real-time observational data sources, RMS HWind products estimated comparable winds at landfall. Consistent with several previous events this season, the landfall location and timing were well forecast by the HWind forecasting products more than 72 hours before landfall.
“Despite encountering cooler waters and strong wind shear in its approach, Zeta managed to intensify before making landfall in Louisiana, nearly achieving major hurricane status. The storm’s fast forward motion–common for events that occur later in the season–reduced material water-driven impacts along the Gulf coast. However, that rapid movement brought hurricane-force winds well inland before Zeta finally weakened. In this unprecedented 2020 season, Zeta is another reminder that the season is far from over,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development.
Hurricane Zeta was the twenty-seventh named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the eleventh hurricane, and the sixth U.S. landfalling hurricane of this extremely active season. Zeta was the eleventh named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. so far in 2020, and a record-breaking fifth named storm of 2020 to make landfall in Louisiana. One month remains in the Atlantic hurricane season, ending officially on November 30.
RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.
The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
Newark, CA – March 22, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, today announced the forthcoming launch of a new suite of Climate Change Models to help customers assess the near and long term impacts of climate change on physical assets and their businesses, in order to make the best possible risk and financial decisions. According to RMS CEO, Karen White, “Today there are no robust or consistent frameworks that can quantify the physical risks posed by catastrophes in a changing climate at the depth required. The innovative suite of RMS Climate Change Models changes that, giving the market a powerful new set of tools. With increasing Board-level attention, stakeholder scrutiny, and regulatory pressure, businesses need to operationalize climate change analytics to make better decisions and enable better transparency. It is clear that the financial impacts of climate change are not solely a “future problem”. The increasing incidence of wildfires, floods and hurricanes mean that climate change insights need to be incorporated into financial decisions that are being made today, in parallel with long term strategic planning and meeting increasing regulatory, environmental, social and governance (ESG) and TCFD reporting requirements, and investor and customer demands. This necessitates a climate change framework and models fully consistent with today’s catastrophe risk analytics and one which addresses the challenges posed by physical climate change risk and its broad impact across all relevant time scales – from today through to the end of the century.” Most RMS models, including all major peril models, already incorporate the impact of climate change up until now – but more is required to meet the evolving and significant market needs. The new RMS Climate Change Models take our existing capabilities further with forward-looking predictive insights and analysis. The new Climate Change Models empower RMS’s economic modeling framework with the best climate science consensus, including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new models will be generally available in June for major peril models North Atlantic Hurricane, Europe Inland Flood and Europe Windstorm. Further models and geographies will follow this initial model suite launch. The RMS climate change solutions also include climate change specialist advisory and consulting expertise and regulatory, ESG and TCFD support. The Climate Change Models address the perils most impacted by climate change and feature: Probabilistic modeling to capture events across different climate change scenarios The ability to adjust time horizons and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) A proprietary industry and economic exposure database to deliver more accurate and impactful climate change models Embeddable software which integrates into existing workflows to facilitate seamless and easy operationalization Consulting and additional expertise supporting regulatory submissions and activities, and providing insights from these new models today Commenting on the RMS climate change solutions, Eric Letourneau, SVP, Group Head of CAT Accumulation Management, QBE, said: “The insights on climate risk provided by RMS have enabled us to better understand climate-related risks and opportunities for our business, to report those insights to financial stakeholders, and to develop and test strategy for our business. We can embed these analytics in our business processes, confident that we have consistency with how we measure underwriting risk and capital requirements now and in the future.” The new RMS Climate Change Models, data, and analytics empower organizations to: Understand the impacts climate change may have on capital and assets today and in the future Price and manage risks to better reflect changing conditions Confidently communicate risks posed by climate change to all stakeholders Comply with regulatory submissions in an efficient and sustainable way RMS has been modeling natural catastrophe risk for the insurance industry for more than 30 years and has been leading research into the impact of climate change on catastrophic losses since RMS’s involvement in the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report. You can learn more about RMS Climate Change solutions here: https://www.rms.com/climate-change
NEWARK, Calif. – March 17, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, and TigerRisk Partners, the leading risk, capital, and strategic advisor to the global insurance and reinsurance industry, today announced the expansion of their partnership to include additional models and data in a new multiyear agreement. With this agreement, TigerRisk can now access the full RMS global natural catastrophe risk models suite. This includes RMS High Definition Models™ such as the RMS North America Wildfire HD Models, RMS Europe Flood HD Models, and RMS Europe Severe Convective Storm HD Models. This complements TigerRisk’s longstanding implementation of the RMS natural catastrophe view of risk in the U.S. on RMS RiskLink®. “We are committed to providing our clients with best-in-class solutions as they navigate this volatile risk landscape,” said Rod Fox, chief executive officer of TigerRisk. “Our clients depend on us to help them maintain a competitive edge, and it’s important we work alongside organizations that can help us support their needs. Our expanded partnership with RMS ensures that we can increase the value we bring to our clients and continue to deliver solutions for managing global risk profitably.” Karen White, chief executive officer of RMS, said, “TigerRisk Partners has established themselves as an innovative reinsurance broker and capital advisor firm in the market. As a valued partner of RMS for over a decade, their investment in analytics aimed at providing the best insights and services for their clients mirrors our commitment to the market. We look forward to continuing to support TigerRisk with the most trusted view of risk in the industry as they grow their business and enhance their services.”
Newark, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20. RMS insured losses represent estimates from major wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado at December 1, 2020: Region Insured Losses (USD $ bn) as of 1 December, 2020 Northern California Oregon and Washington Colorado 5.0 - 9.0 1.0 - 3.0 Up to 1.0 The RMS estimate includes losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI), and additional living expenses (ALE) across residential, commercial, and industrial lines. Smoke and evacuation are expected to be significant contributors to losses for the wildfires this season, contributing about 20 percent of losses in California and Colorado and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington. The estimate also accounts for notable post-event loss amplification (PLA) from property damage (25 to 30 percent) and business interruption/ALE (up to 100 percent or greater). The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the U.S. Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Model, part of the North America Wildfire HD Model suite, released in February, 2019. The model covers the entire contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports from federal and respective state agencies for the Oregon, Washington, and Colorado fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database. Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “2020 represents the most destructive fire season on record, in terms of burn area in California. Since August, 69 major fires that exceeded 1,000 burned acres each, have burned so far. Five of the six largest ever California wildfires have occurred in 2020, with over 4.4 million acres burned in total to date. While fires earlier in the season were dominated by ignitions sparked by the intense lightning storm in August, extreme wind-driven fires dominated the last few months. A similar phenomenon resulted in record-breaking fires in Oregon as well this season, with over 20 major fires driven by extreme winds, burning more than 1.2 million acres so far. In October, Colorado experienced its three largest destructive fires with more than 24 major fires burning 850,000 acres in total. Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development said: “This wildfire season reaffirms the growing catastrophic nature of this peril. Wildfire risk is clearly evolving, not only in California, but also in other states, as we observed in Oregon and Colorado. While changing climate patterns have significantly influenced the record-breaking fires this season, several other factors also profoundly affected the ignition potential and expected losses from these events in different ways. Most notable amongst them are the Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) measures undertaken by utilities, preparedness and response of firefighters in Northern California despite COVID-19 challenges, and recent legislative actions governing wildfire claims settlement such as the California Senate Bill 872. RMS is currently engaged with various stakeholders in evaluating these factors and understanding their impact on the emerging risk profile of this peril as part of its wildfire modeling agenda.” END The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.