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Quantifying North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk

RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models help the market gain necessary insights about the evolving tropical cyclone risk landscape, informing sound underwriting, portfolio management, reinsurance, and risk transfer decisions.

Obtain a Complete and Correlated View of Hurricane Risk

Utilize the models' basin-wide event methodology to assess key drivers of risk to support portfolio growth and diversification strategies. The U.S. component is linked with the RMS® U.S. Inland Flood HD Model, providing the means to develop a complete view of wind, storm surge, and tropical cyclone precipitation-induced flooding in one place.

Validate Modeled Losses Against Historical Experience

Gain accurate insights into potential losses to inform pricing decisions, support rating agency discussions, and determine reinsurance limit needs with confidence.

Tools to Develop Your Own View of Risk

Stress test model assumptions, sensitivities, and uncertainties of hurricane risk to event rates, wind and storm surge settings, building stock, and vulnerability functions, including the impact of mitigation techniques and near- and long-term climate trends.

North Atlantic Hurricane

Developed over 25+ years, the models provide the most comprehensive solution in the market for managing tropical cyclone risk.

Event Set

The models are informed by a single, basin-wide stochastic event set in the Atlantic that captures the impacts of wind and storm surge for the full spectrum of landfalling, bypassing, and transitioning storms, and similar event catalogs for the East Pacific and Hawaii. Geographic coverage spans 40 countries in total, including 20+ U.S. states, Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Central America, the Caribbean, and offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Vulnerability

The North Atlantic Hurricane Models support more effective risk differentiation and selection decisions at the local level. With over 1,750 unique vulnerability functions across a variety of primary building characteristics, regions, and lines of business, the models reflect the latest market practices, enabling accurate insights into vulnerability risk differentiation for underwriting and managing hurricane risk.

Validation and Acceptance

The models have been extensively reviewed by clients, third-party experts, over $21 billion in detailed claims data and observations across 35+ historical events. This has supported 20+ years of FCHLPM certification in Florida and successful rate filings in 20+ states.

Hazard

The models employ high-quality satellite imagery to represent local variations in wind hazard, and they integrate a hydrodynamic surge modeling framework to capture the impacts of hurricane-induced coastal flooding in the U.S. and parts of the Caribbean down to street level.

Related Products

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RMS HWind

Developed over 25+ years by world-class hurricane observation researchers, RMS HWind provides observation-based tropical cyclone data for real-time and historical events in the Atlantic, East Pacific, and Central Pacific Basins.

united-states-flood
U.S. Flood

Identify suitable risks, implement refined underwriting guidelines, manage exposure accumulations, and design profitable growth strategies related to flood risk.

Cyclone, Hurricane, and Typhoon
Cyclone, Hurricane, and Typhoon

Assess tropical cyclone risk to inform sound underwriting, portfolio management, and risk transfer decisions.

Resources

Hurricane Laura
Video
BBC News Interview With RMS About Hurricane Laura

Tom Sabbatelli-Goodyer interviewed live on BBC News about the impacts of Hurricane Laura.

Hurricane Laura
Blog
Atlantic Hurricane in 2020: Are We in Store for Another Record-Breaking Year?

In the midst of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with storms forming in rapid sequence, records broken early in the season and four storms already producing significant damage in the Caribbean and U.S., whether we are headed for a record-breaking year is a good question. Various forecast agencies have issued mid-season updates, which signal prospects for the remainder of the season. But what about the 2020 season to date, and how does it compare to notably…

Hurricane Laura
Video
RMS Interviewed on Sky News Talking About Hurricane Laura

Ian King interviewing Tom Sabbatelli-Goodyer on Hurricane Laura making landfall.

News
News
RMS Estimates that Insured Losses from Hurricane Isaias Will Be Between US$3bn – US$5bn

Newark, CA – August 14, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total insured losses from Hurricane Isaias will be between US$3.0 and US$5.0 billion. The estimate includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranges for the U.S. and Caribbean (US$ billions): Region Insured Loss…

News
News
RMS Updates Views Of Risk For Asia Pacific Earthquake & North Atlantic Hurricane

Newark, California - April 29, 2019  RMS, the leading global risk modeling and data analytics firm, announced today the release of new views of earthquake risk in Taiwan and in six countries across Southeast Asia, as well as an update to its view of hurricane risk across the hurricane-impacted countries in the North Atlantic basin. The models will be delivered on version 18.1 of RiskLink and RiskBrowser, RMS’ industry-leading risk management software. …

News
News
RMS Estimates that U.S. Insured Losses from Hurricane Hanna Will Not Exceed USD $400 Million

Newark, CA – July 30, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that the U.S. insurance losses from Hurricane Hanna will not exceed $400 million. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind and storm surge, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). “Wind and storm surge-driven losses for Hanna are expected to be consistent with losses projected by RMS’ HWind…

News
News
RMS Achieves Industry First With Certified Florida Commission On Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) Hurricane Models Available Simultaneously On-Premise And Cloud

Newark, CA. - June 24, 2019  Today, RMS, a leading global risk modeling and analytics firm, announced that its Version 18.1 RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models were approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 13, 2019, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to Version 18.1 hurricane models on both RiskLink 18.1 and the…

News
News
RMS Estimates Hurricane Dorian Insured Losses For The U.S. Will Be Between USD $500 Million And $1.5 Billion

NEWARK, Calif. - September 13, 2019  RMS, a leading global risk modeling and analytics firm, estimated insured losses from Hurricane Dorian to the U.S. will be between $500 million and $1.5 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind and storm surge damage across the U.S., including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). This loss estimate for the U.S. reflects property damage and business interruption to…

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