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Newark, CA. - June 24, 2019  Today, RMS, a leading global risk modeling and analytics firm, announced that its Version 18.1 RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models were approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 13, 2019, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to Version 18.1 hurricane models on both RiskLink 18.1 and the forthcoming Risk Modeler 2.1 application on Risk Intelligence (RI). This certification will be valid until November 1, 2021.

Following this approval, RMS becomes the first risk modeling and analytics firm to have its hurricane models approved by the FCHLPM on a software and cloud platform simultaneously.

“Certification by the Florida Commission is a strong indicator of the integrity of our hurricane model, its quality, and the science, data, and engineering underpinning it,” said Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models, “The recent updates to Version 18.1 reflect enhancements to each model component to improve the differentiation and quantification of hurricane risk throughout the Atlantic Basin.”

On April 29, 2019, RMS announced the release of its updated North Atlantic Hurricane Models in Version 18.1. Leveraging new hurricane science, data, and technology, the latest view of the hurricane risk landscape within this model incorporates the following enhancements:

  • Long-term event rate set updated to comply with the May 2017 vintage of the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) data
  • New medium-term rate forecast for 2019-2023 informed by data-driven and methodological enhancements, including the latest historical Atlantic Basin hurricane data through the end of the 2018 season
  • New historical event reconstructions from recent hurricane seasons
  • Vulnerability updates to select primary and secondary characteristics, as well as specialty lines to reflect new RMS building research, hurricane claims data, and Institute of Business and Home Safety (IBHS) research

Cihan Biyikoglu, Executive Vice President of Product at RMS said, “RMS is committed to offering its risk solutions in multiple distribution formats to meet the evolving business needs of the (re)insurance market. Having Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models available on both RiskLink and Risk Intelligence (RI) gives clients choice on how they access and make use of this critical market currency to inform their view of hurricane risk.”

For additional details on the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models click here.

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RMS Estimates that Total U.S. Insured Losses from Hurricane Sally Will Be Between US$2bn – US$3.5bn

Newark, CA – September 24, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Sally will be between US$2.0 and US$3.5 billion. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$400m and US$800m. U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Sally (US$ billions): Wind & Surge Inland Flood NFIP Total 1.3 - 2.3  0.3 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.8 2.0 - 3.5 “Sally made landfall with much stronger winds than expected. While it weakened considerably as it moved inland, the slow-moving nature of the storm brought persistent wind and storm surge to much of the Gulf coastline, combined with heavy rainfall and widespread flooding to interior regions. Sally is another example of how hurricane damage can take many different forms”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.  This estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Gulf and Florida regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and estimates from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Sally’s hazards that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed wind speeds and storm surge. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. Estimates include post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects the majority of insured losses will impact residential lines. The estimate also includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to reach US$400 million to US$800 million. NFIP losses were derived using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. “We expect Sally to be a sizable event for the NFIP. The majority of NFIP take-up occurs in coastal counties, especially in the states most impacted by the hurricane, notably Alabama and Florida. However, the inland extent of heavy rainfall from this event means we’ll likely see NFIP losses stemming from inland flood as well,” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development.  Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday, September 16, 2020 as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Sally produced sustained winds of 105 mph (170 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Informed by a suite of real-time observational data sources, RMS HWind products estimated comparable winds at and just after landfall. The landfall location was also well-forecast by the HWind forecasting products. “In the days leading up to landfall, our HWind forecasts consistently provided clients with scenarios indicating a potential Alabama landfall location, even prior to the NHC official forecasts trending east away from New Orleans. This event is another strong validation point in demonstrating the predictive value of these products,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development. In the 24-36 hours following landfall, Sally weakened quickly as it tracked further inland into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas, before being downgraded to a “remnant low” on September 17. Hurricane Sally was the eighteenth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the seventh hurricane, and the fourth U.S. landfalling hurricane of this very active season. Sally is the eighth named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. so far in 2020, a new record for U.S. landfall activity as of mid-September. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.   ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF. …

September 22, 2020
RMS Estimates Insurance Losses from Western U.S. Wildfires to Be Between US$4bn and US$8bn

NEWARK, Calif. – September 22, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk company estimates insured losses for the Western U.S. will be between US$4.0 and US$8.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of September 20, 2020, and further escalation in losses are likely as many fires are still ongoing in California, Oregon, and Washington. RMS estimates insured losses from major wildfires in Northern California, Oregon, and Washington as follows (US$ billions): Regions Insured Losses as of September 20, 2020 Northern California 3.0 - 5.0 Oregon & Washington 1.0 - 3.0 Wildfires in the Western U.S. have led to over four million acres burned so far (2.5 million in Northern California and over 1.5 million in Oregon and Washington) and over 13,500 structures damaged or destroyed as of September 20, 2020. Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “While this season is exceptionally noteworthy on many fronts, I want to highlight a silver lining: 30 to 60 percent of structures in many of these mega complex footprints actually survived the fire. This is because building science has identified many factors that increase the survivability of structures such as wildfire-resistant vents. We need to find bold ways to duplicate those measures at scale. If this is the new normal, we can’t afford not to embrace effective steps towards mitigation.” RMS estimates include losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI) across residential, commercial, industrial lines, and additional living expenses (ALE). Smoke and evacuation are significant contributors to losses during the ongoing Western U.S. wildfires, contributing about 20 percent of losses in Northern California fires and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington fires, respectively. The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the RMS U.S. Wildfire HD Model, part of the suite of RMS North America Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Models, released in February 2019. The model covers the contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports for Oregon and Washington fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database. As many major fires are still active in these states, additional increases in loss are possible. Learn more about the RMS North America Wildfire HD Model here. ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF. …

About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) helps insurers, financial markets, corporations, and public agencies evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by marrying data and advanced model science with leading-edge SaaS technology. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI), our open, unified cloud platform for global risk, enabling them to tap into RMS HD models, rich data layers, intuitive applications, and APIs.

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a new modern open standard data schema designed to be an extensible, flexible, and future-proof asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner enabling effective risk management for better business decision making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Devonne Cusi

PR Lead, Americas
+1 551 226 1604 prteam@rms.com
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