Newark, CA – August 14, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total insured losses from Hurricane Isaias will be between US$3.0 and US$5.0 billion. The estimate includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m.
Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranges for the U.S. and Caribbean (US$ billions):
|Region||Insured Loss in USD B|
|United States||3.0 - 4.5|
|Caribbean||Less than 0.5|
|Total||3.0 - 5.0|
“Although Isaias weakened to a tropical storm after landfall, it maintained its intensity as it moved up the U.S. east coast and underwent extratropical transition, due to its interaction with a strong jet stream and favorable atmospheric conditions. As a result, many areas of high exposure, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, were subject to stronger winds and wind gusts than would otherwise be expected, especially in coastal areas of these regions. It’s another example of how impactful low intensity storms can be”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
For the U.S., this estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints (hazard reconstructions of Isaias’s wind field and storm surge) in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
The U.S. estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. It also includes factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled sources of loss, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. RMS expects the majority of insured losses to impact residential lines.
“The large number of affected exposures, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., are likely to produce large claims volumes. Pressure to settle these claims quickly may lead to claims inflation. We also considered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect fewer loss inspections following this event, potentially causing prolonged repairs and recovery times, both of which tend to inflate claims costs” said Pete Dailey, vice president, Product Management, RMS.
The estimate also includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. RMS derived the NFIP losses using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 NFIP policy-in-force data published by FEMA in 2019.
RMS expects the majority of total U.S. insured losses to be driven by wind. Storm surge expected to contribute to less than 10% of the total losses.
For the Caribbean, this estimate includes wind-only losses, which RMS expects to be less than US$500 million, based on analysis of RMS post-landfall stochastic event tracks in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The Caribbean loss estimate includes property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, and industrial lines of business.
The RMS insured wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias are based on RMS industry exposure databases representing insured hurricane exposure in the U.S. and Caribbean.
Hurricane Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, and the second landfalling hurricane of the season. It was the Atlantic Basin's earliest forming "I" storm on record. Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina on August 3, 2020 as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) according to the National Hurricane Center and RMS HWind. The storm subsequently weakened to tropical storm intensity and quickly tracked northeast along the east coast of the U.S., affecting much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with tropical storm-force winds and stronger gusts.
Prior to impacting the U.S., Isaias made landfall over Andros Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, August 1, also as a Category 1 hurricane. Other Caribbean countries and territories impacted by the storm include Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos.
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
NEWARK, Calif. – June 30, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, and the Saudi Reinsurance Company (Saudi Re) announce a new agreement, with Saudi Re adopting RMS models and services for a more comprehensive view across the Asian market. The agreement will enable Saudi Re to enhance risk analysis across multiple geographies including India, China, and the Philippines. Saudi Re continues to grow its activities and client base in the Asian market, and is further enhancing its ‘in-house’ capability of assessing risks particularly in this expanding region. “Our clients know and expect the best insights, service and quality from Saudi Re,” said Fahad Al-Hesni, MD-CEO at Saudi Re. “The new agreement with RMS will help ensure the continued delivery of these standards, through applied use of leading science and technology. Being the first to acquire RMS models in the Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council (re)insurance market, we expect that our use of RMS models will increase value, and ultimately profitability, to all our global clients when managing their risk.” RMS EVP Client Development Pat McCarthy said, “We are honored to be working with Saudi Re. With this deal, the reinsurance and insurance markets in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia are able to take full advantage of the latest science and technology to help navigate the evolving risk landscape. Our continued investment in our models and services aims to give Saudi Re full confidence that they will be in the best position to proactively support their own clients and goals.” END About Saudi Re Saudi Reinsurance Company "Saudi Re" is a Saudi joint stock company, founded in Riyadh in 2008 as the first reinsurance company established in Saudi Arabia. With offices in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Saudi Re is one of the MENA regions leading reinsurers and has a diversified global portfolio which expands over 40 countries across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Saudi Re is A3 rated by Moody’s with a stable outlook.
Newark, Calif. – June 8, 2021 – Today, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced that Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models was approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 1, 2021, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to Version 21.0 hurricane models available on RiskLink® 21.0 and the Risk Modeler application on the RMS open cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™. This multi-environment approval builds on the successes of the Version 18.1 FCHLPM certification in 2019, when RMS became the first catastrophe risk modeling and solutions firm to have its hurricane models certified for use simultaneously on both on-premises and cloud software. Matthew Nielsen, senior director, regulatory affairs, RMS, said: “Obtaining FCHLPM certification is a key milestone in the development and go-to-market process of our hurricane models. It underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models, based on industry-leading science, data, methods, engineering, and software. The certification also has implications for other regions, as many other states affected by hurricanes look to Florida’s model certification process as a first step for their own state approvals.” On May 5, 2021, RMS announced updates to Version 21.0 of its hurricane models. Informed by new data and learnings from recent impactful seasons, including more than US$6 billion in new claims data, the updated hurricane models allow RMS to continue providing the (re)insurance market with the most comprehensive view of the hurricane risk landscape. Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models Suite, said: “The updates in Version 21.0 include the latest insights into current and evolving market conditions in risk-prone areas. For instance, recent changes to the statewide building code in Florida have extended the geographical applicability of roof replacement requirements throughout the state. Initial assessments suggest this may drive material increases on overall claim severity, because it means a roof that might experience as little as 25% damage is required to be replaced in full. In Version 21, alongside our reference view of vulnerability, we've introduced a new alternative view of vulnerability for residential lines in Florida to help clients understand the sensitivities of these potential impacts to their books.” Other enhancements in Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models include: Long-term event rates updates to incorporate two new seasons of hurricane activity (2017-2018) from the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) data. New medium-term rate forecast for 2021-2025 informed by data-driven updates, including the latest historical Atlantic Basin hurricane data through the record-breaking 2020 season. New historical event reconstructions from recent seasons, including hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), and Michael (2018). Vulnerability updates in the Caribbean based on new claims data and learnings from the impactful 2017-2018 seasons. Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer and executive vice president, models and data, RMS said: “As the 2021 hurricane season is now underway, it’s important to remember that hurricane is one of the biggest drivers of annual insured losses throughout the North Atlantic Basin. Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models incorporates important learnings and insights from the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, including the most new claims data and event rates informed by data from the most recent 2020 season. These advantages help give (re)insurers a more comprehensive view of risk applicable at the point of underwriting through to portfolio management and risk transfer decisions." The FCHLPM certification of Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models will be valid until November 1, 2023. Version 21.0 will be generally available on June 23, 2021, on both RiskLink and Risk Modeler simultaneously. Learn more about the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models here. The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
Newark, Calif. – May 7, 2021 – At its annual Exceedance conference this week, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, demonstrated the benefits (re)insurance customers are experiencing by moving to RMS Risk Modeler™, the cloud-based risk modeling application running on the RMS open cloud platform, Risk Intelligence™. Risk Modeler, a next-generation cloud-based modeling application, is designed to meet the complex needs of risk analysts and cat modelers at scale. Risk Modeler enables real-time risk analytics and unified, high-performance execution of RiskLink models and High-Definition (HD) simulation models. Designed with a deep understanding of customer requirements and leveraging the latest technological innovations, Risk Modeler easily integrates with other on-premise applications as well as other cloud applications through open APIs and export services, giving customers greater flexibility and choice. This week at Exceedance, the industry has heard from RMS customers about the advantages they are gaining by adopting Risk Modeler to help manage their risk portfolios. Gallagher Re, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, and Unipol spoke during the conference keynotes about their experiences with Risk Modeler to date. Howden Group also shared their insights on the benefits of Risk Modeler. Neil Bramley, analytics executive, Gallagher Re, “Gallagher was keen to take advantage of the SaaS Solution, pushing the technology harder and faster, leveraging the benefits and scale of secure cloud computing to ultimately create tangible advantage and upsides for our clients. Risk Modeler helped us grow our analytical capability tremendously and our usage stats are through the roof compared to last year, with the added benefit of zero downtime whenever our divisions are looking to access new functionality and solutions.” Gian Luca De Marchi, group chief risk officer, Unipol Gruppo S.p.A., “Risk modeling through the Risk Modeler application allows us to run portfolio analyses and to support risk management assessments for risk profiling, risk monitoring, capital allocation, and optimal risk transfer. Now, the RMS models could help us in moving to an internal model, reducing the gap between economic capital and regulatory capital, and provide robust support in meeting regulatory requirements in particular in relation to stress tests.” David Flandro, managing director, Head of HX Analytics, Howden Group, “Risk Modeler together with RMS’s trusted science is an important part of our analytics ecosystem that helps Howden provide a differentiated service to our clients and partners. The SaaS delivery and API-based development framework is well positioned to help service our digital-first vision with distinction.” Alexander Hanks, executive director, head of actuarial & analytics, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, “We worked with RMS as early adopters, making full use of Risk Modeler’s API first development approach to fully integrate modeling with our own cloud tools, switching off RiskLink and RiskBrowser in the process. Gone are the days of manually working with spreadsheets, copying and pasting and relying on manually re-running modeling of jobs. The automation work has taken manual time-consuming tasks away and we're able to spend much more time on interpreting modeling results and providing deeper insights to our clients.” Speaking at the conference, RMS CEO, Karen White, said, “When RMS launched Risk Modeler 2.0 in 2020, more customers started on their cloud migration with us. We are seeing more momentum in the industry for digital first strategies. Today, insurers, reinsurers, and brokers from every major global geographic region are on the RMS platform. Leveraging leading models, technology, and the cloud to gain greater risk insights helps them to avoid surprises, confidently deploy more capital, and potentially develop new products and new business models.”