NEWARK, CA – August 14, 2020 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total insured losses from Hurricane Isaias will be between US$3.0 and US$5.0 billion. The estimate includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m.
Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranges for the U.S. and Caribbean (US$ billions):
|Region||Insured Loss in USD B|
|United States||3.0 - 4.5|
|Caribbean||Less than 0.5|
|Total||3.0 - 5.0|
“Although Isaias weakened to a tropical storm after landfall, it maintained its intensity as it moved up the U.S. east coast and underwent extratropical transition, due to its interaction with a strong jet stream and favorable atmospheric conditions. As a result, many areas of high exposure, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, were subject to stronger winds and wind gusts than would otherwise be expected, especially in coastal areas of these regions. It’s another example of how impactful low intensity storms can be”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
For the U.S., this estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints (hazard reconstructions of Isaias’s wind field and storm surge) in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
The U.S. estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. It also includes factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled sources of loss, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. RMS expects the majority of insured losses to impact residential lines.
“The large number of affected exposures, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., are likely to produce large claims volumes. Pressure to settle these claims quickly may lead to claims inflation. We also considered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect fewer loss inspections following this event, potentially causing prolonged repairs and recovery times, both of which tend to inflate claims costs” said Pete Dailey, vice president, Product Management, RMS.
The estimate also includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. RMS derived the NFIP losses using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 NFIP policy-in-force data published by FEMA in 2019.
RMS expects the majority of total U.S. insured losses to be driven by wind. Storm surge expected to contribute to less than 10% of the total losses.
For the Caribbean, this estimate includes wind-only losses, which RMS expects to be less than US$500 million, based on analysis of RMS post-landfall stochastic event tracks in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The Caribbean loss estimate includes property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, and industrial lines of business.
The RMS insured wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias are based on RMS industry exposure databases representing insured hurricane exposure in the U.S. and Caribbean.
Hurricane Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, and the second landfalling hurricane of the season. It was the Atlantic Basin's earliest forming "I" storm on record. Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina on August 3, 2020 as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) according to the National Hurricane Center and RMS HWind. The storm subsequently weakened to tropical storm intensity and quickly tracked northeast along the east coast of the U.S., affecting much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with tropical storm-force winds and stronger gusts.
Prior to impacting the U.S., Isaias made landfall over Andros Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, August 1, also as a Category 1 hurricane. Other Caribbean countries and territories impacted by the storm include Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos.
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
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NEWARK, CA – 19 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching new global views for acute and chronic perils and their climate change impact. RMS already offers a range of regional peril and climate change models, which support detailed acute physical loss modeling products, as well as data products covering hazard and risk scores, and loss costs for individual locations, across multiple time horizons. RMS climate change models and data products have been welcomed by the market, and allow users to stress test portfolio management, risk mitigation, and adaption strategies. The newly announced global views significantly extend RMS’s peril and climate change impact coverage to provide fully correlated global views of risk, and include event frequency and severity, and analysis for current baseline and future climate views. With these new global views, RMS not only delivers a view of risk for acute peril-specific risks, but also chronic risks such as drought, heat stress, water stress, and sea-level rise. This global peril coverage will enhance RMS’s applications on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ with the Risk Modeler™, ExposureIQ™, TreatyIQ™, SiteIQ™, and UnderwriteIQ™ applications delivering global insights in the future. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, said: “We are continuing to see growing demand for risk insights on acute and chronic perils and climate change, from investors and corporations across many industries such as banking, commercial real estate, and insurance. The effects of these risks will unfold over many years and will have many direct and indirect implications for both industry and society. We firmly believe that long-term strategies and decision making can only benefit from detailed and analytical insight into hazard and risk impacts for present and future climates.”
NEWARK, CA – 18 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, today announces it will be releasing four new High Definition™ (HD) models, including Europe Windstorm, North America Winterstorm (WT), North America Severe Convective Storm (SCS), and Terrorism. RMS HD Models represent the next generation of risk modeling, delivering deeper analysis and granularity from Moody's. The HD probabilistic models incorporate a high-fidelity, simulation-based framework for modeling event frequency and severity, to provide a major step forward in the quality of catastrophe risk quantification. The framework allows for event footprints to be represented more realistically across larger event sets. The new RMS Europe Windstorm HD Model further enhances the current model and will cover 17 countries, adding Finland and Lichtenstein. The HD model includes a climate variability view and has expanded storm surge analytics to include the U.K., Ireland, France, and Belgium. Storm clustering will be modeled natively within the HD framework, together with an option to run the model without clustering. Industrial facilities, builders’ risk, and marine cargo will also all be covered. With the new model RMS will be able to offer a complete High-Definition solution for all atmospheric climate perils across Europe including Europe SCS HD Model, Europe Windstorm HD Model - and the Europe Flood HD Model, which was particularly relevant during the Berndt flooding in 2021. The exceptionally high insured losses from the U.S. severe winter weather event of February 2021 placed the winter storm peril in sharp focus. Both the RMS North America Winterstorm and RMS North America SCS HD Models benefit from a simulation-based framework that better represents the time-dependent nature of SCS/WT event frequency and hazard. This includes event clustering, seasonality, and the representation of cumulative hazard such as multi-day SCS outbreaks, or the cumulative snow buildup on a building due to multiple snowfalls. RMS launched its market-leading Terrorism Model in 2002, to help firms better manage exposed risks and quantify losses and casualties due to macro terrorism. As part of the suite of capabilities Moody's provides clients, the new RMS Terrorism HD Model offers increased transparency in exceedance probability (EP) generation, with outputs and analysis processes consistent with other RMS HD models. Workflow improvements include expanded financial model capabilities, multi-region selections, property and workers compensation in a single analysis, and introduces selectable causes of loss: conventional, fire only, or chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN). The planned general availability for the RMS Terrorism HD Model will be in 2022, Europe Windstorm HD Model in 2023, and North America Winterstorm and North America Severe Convective Storm in 2024. Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, Model Production Management, RMS, said: “The RMS High Definition Models are delivering a step-change in risk analysis across the insurance industry. All the technological capabilities within the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ support the RMS HD model enhancements for clients. These model announcements build on Moody’s continued commitment to bringing reliable and precise analytics to the modelers, underwriters, the C-suite, and across the industry. RMS has always invested in leading science and technology to ensure that clients have some of the best information available to help them with their risk decisions.”
NEWARK, CA – 17 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching a new application, UnderwriteIQ™, hosted on the cloud-based RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™. UnderwriteIQ enables underwriters to have greater control of risks by bringing hazard, exposure, and loss data together in the underwriting process at the point of decision – all based on RMS model science and data. The new application will allow underwriters to price with confidence, enable consistent risk decisions, and improve operational efficiency. The application is hosted on the modular and unified RMS Intelligent Risk Platform (IRP). The platform provides proprietary and tertiary data analytics to rapidly generate high-resolution risk insights via applications that meet underwriting and portfolio management needs. Moe Khosravy, Executive Vice President, Software and Platform, RMS, said: “The growth in adoption of the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has been phenomenal. A substantial number of clients are benefiting from the secure cloud-based platform that provides superior advanced analytics through a single holistic enterprise risk management system, without the hardware and software maintenance required for on-premise offerings. IRP easily integrates into existing systems and its modular design allows users to license and use only the required applications or APIs.” UnderwriteIQ is the latest addition to the RMS IQ application suite, which also includes TreatyIQ™ and ExposureIQ™. The TreatyIQ application allows users to rapidly design and analyze both simple and complex treaty program structures, as well as import and leverage any modeled loss data, adapted to a user’s view of risk. An intuitive, underwriter-centric user experience supports customized pricing and capital metrics and can display rapid roll-up results, with analytics on aggregate positions and the performance of risk capital. ExposureIQ allows users to manage both reinsurance and insurance accumulations within one application, building structures that represent their business hierarchies in an intuitive way. The application also provides near real-time catastrophe event visualization using a powerful mapping module that directly integrates RMS Event Response and RMS HWind data. ExposureIQ makes business-wide exposure management faster and more accurate, allowing for easy identification of the key drivers of accumulations and portfolio trends, and analysis of deterministic losses across any region in the world. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, concluded: “The RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has gone from strength to strength since it was launched in 2018, as can be seen by its adoption across the insurance market. Powered by RMS models, science, and technology, UnderwriteIQ is a welcome addition to the existing IQ applications suite, delivering business value, end-to-end consistency, and an improved client experience. RMS plans to always continue to invest in and deliver the technology, science, and solutions that help our clients make better risk decisions.”