Newark, CA – August 14, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total insured losses from Hurricane Isaias will be between US$3.0 and US$5.0 billion. The estimate includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m.
Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranges for the U.S. and Caribbean (US$ billions):
|Region||Insured Loss in USD B|
|United States||3.0 - 4.5|
|Caribbean||Less than 0.5|
|Total||3.0 - 5.0|
“Although Isaias weakened to a tropical storm after landfall, it maintained its intensity as it moved up the U.S. east coast and underwent extratropical transition, due to its interaction with a strong jet stream and favorable atmospheric conditions. As a result, many areas of high exposure, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, were subject to stronger winds and wind gusts than would otherwise be expected, especially in coastal areas of these regions. It’s another example of how impactful low intensity storms can be”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
For the U.S., this estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints (hazard reconstructions of Isaias’s wind field and storm surge) in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
The U.S. estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. It also includes factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled sources of loss, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. RMS expects the majority of insured losses to impact residential lines.
“The large number of affected exposures, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., are likely to produce large claims volumes. Pressure to settle these claims quickly may lead to claims inflation. We also considered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect fewer loss inspections following this event, potentially causing prolonged repairs and recovery times, both of which tend to inflate claims costs” said Pete Dailey, vice president, Product Management, RMS.
The estimate also includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. RMS derived the NFIP losses using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 NFIP policy-in-force data published by FEMA in 2019.
RMS expects the majority of total U.S. insured losses to be driven by wind. Storm surge expected to contribute to less than 10% of the total losses.
For the Caribbean, this estimate includes wind-only losses, which RMS expects to be less than US$500 million, based on analysis of RMS post-landfall stochastic event tracks in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The Caribbean loss estimate includes property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, and industrial lines of business.
The RMS insured wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias are based on RMS industry exposure databases representing insured hurricane exposure in the U.S. and Caribbean.
Hurricane Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, and the second landfalling hurricane of the season. It was the Atlantic Basin's earliest forming "I" storm on record. Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina on August 3, 2020 as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) according to the National Hurricane Center and RMS HWind. The storm subsequently weakened to tropical storm intensity and quickly tracked northeast along the east coast of the U.S., affecting much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with tropical storm-force winds and stronger gusts.
Prior to impacting the U.S., Isaias made landfall over Andros Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, August 1, also as a Category 1 hurricane. Other Caribbean countries and territories impacted by the storm include Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos.
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
LONDON, U.K. – September 22, 2021 – Apollo Partners LLP (Apollo), an independent specialist insurer and reinsurer, announced today that it has integrated the RMS® ExposureIQ™ application into its exposure management workflow. Apollo selected RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, to enable outstanding internal exposure management processes and underwriting. This followed an extensive evaluation that demonstrated the vital support our ExposureIQ application provides to exposure and portfolio managers. Robert Stevenson, Head of Operations at Apollo, said: “Before committing to ExposureIQ, we conducted an extensive evaluation of how the RMS exposure management tool could facilitate enhanced internal workflows and how we could better present and visualize exposure information. Our primary focus was to have a single exposure data source feeding multiple applications and not have to convert or upload exposure datasets between applications. ExposureIQ provides that capability. Our team is currently using ExposureIQ to support our frontline underwriting workflow and is providing a more agile platform to analyze current and historical events.” ExposureIQ, the cloud-based exposure management application running on the RMS open cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™, enables faster and more accurate business-wide exposure management. RMS recently announced the addition of event response and HWind data as the latest integrations to ExposureIQ. ExposureIQ, along with Risk Modeler™ and SiteIQ™, offers all access centralized exposure data allowing for efficient, fast analysis – removing the need for costly data double-entry and allowing for technology integration across different solutions. Jason Futers, Managing Director at RMS, said: “Exposure management is key to our customers’ ability to build profitable portfolios. The ExposureIQ application was developed on our truly unified platform, Risk Intelligence, where our customers can quickly derive deeper insights and improve what are traditionally manual, repetitive activities such as event response. There are a number of stand-alone exposure tools in the market, so we’re delighted a sophisticated insurer such as Apollo has adopted the Exposure IQ application after such a thorough evaluation.” Learn more about the ExposureIQ application. END About Apollo Syndicate Management Apollo Syndicate Management Limited is an independent specialist insurer and reinsurer with a team of talented and experienced professionals across a number of specialty lines. Apollo offers adaptable and flexible underwriting services at Lloyd’s and leads a number of London market consortia. Apollo’s market-leading underwriting talent has allowed the business to spearhead sharing economy initiatives such as ibott (“Insuring Businesses of Tomorrow, Today”). For more information, please see: http://www.apollounderwriting.com/
Newark, CA – September 16, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore and offshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Ida to be between US$31 and US$44 billion. The estimate builds upon the earlier industry loss estimate of US$25-$35 billion for the Gulf of Mexico region, to include inland flooding impacts in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. regions. RMS estimates US$6–$9 billion in insured losses from precipitation-induced flooding in the Atlantic states in this event. The majority of the insured flood losses in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. – between US$4.5 and US$7.0 billion, will be to the private market, with an additional US$1.5–$2.0 billion to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Total U.S. onshore and offshore insured loss estimates for Hurricane Ida (US$ billions): Wind + Surge Inland Flood NFIP Offshore Energy Total Gulf 21 - 28 1.0 - 1.5 2.3 - 4.0 0.7 - 1.5 25 - 35 Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S. n/a 4.5 - 7.0 1.5 - 2.0 n/a 6 - 9 Total U.S. Onshore and Offshore 21 - 28 5.5 - 8.5 3.8 - 6.0 0.7 - 1.5 31 - 44 The overall industry loss estimate for this event includes wind and storm surge losses in the Gulf of Mexico based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Ida’s hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The industry estimate also includes impacts from precipitation-induced inland flooding in the Gulf Coast states (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi), Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, using footprints from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. “Ida will be remembered as a wind and storm surge event in the Gulf of Mexico, and a flood event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. The storm’s remnants brought historic amounts of rainfall over just a few hours to some of the most exposure-dense areas in that part of the country. Many locations from Philadelphia to New York City experienced six-hourly rainfall totals in excess of 100-year return period levels, which is beyond building design standards in that region, causing widespread fluvial and pluvial flooding. The fact that this region also experienced heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Henri a few weeks prior created saturated antecedent conditions that exacerbated the extent and severity of flooding in Ida,” said Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. Losses for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, as well as sources of post-event loss amplification and leakage of flood losses onto windstorm policies. “RMS expects insured losses associated with precipitation-induced inland flooding to be material in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, even though a sizable flood protection gap remains. RMS estimates total economic losses from flooding in this region to be over US$15 billion, meaning that the majority of flood damages for this event will be uninsured. Many properties in New York and New Jersey had inundated basements in areas outside the designated FEMA special flood hazard areas (SFHAs), which drive the requirement for homeowners to obtain a flood insurance policy. While such losses will unlikely be covered unless they have a flood insurance policy, the pressure to expedite claims processing in this region is likely to cause coverage leakage as frequently seen with storm surge. We expect a portion of the uncovered flood-related losses in Ida to be paid out on wind policies, especially for residential lines without NFIP coverage,” said Firas Saleh, Director, RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. Total insured losses from Ida reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, automobile, industrial, infrastructure, marine cargo and specie, watercraft, and other specialty lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. “We expect a sizable portion of the overall insured losses from Ida to be associated with post-event loss amplification. A combination of COVID-19 related impacts, including rising construction costs, labor shortages, and fewer loss inspections could contribute to economic demand surge as repairs are undertaken in the coming months. That, along with prolonged power outages will only lengthen recovery and repair times, all of which may lead to increased overall claim costs in this event,” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development, RMS. The total U.S. insured loss estimate includes US$3.8–US$6 billion losses to the NFIP, with US$1.5–US$2 billion expected to come from the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast states. NFIP losses were derived using RMS’ view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 21 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. While flood policy take-up is significant in coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, some of the areas worst affected by floods during Ida have minimal (<10%) NFIP participation. RMS expects the majority of onshore insured losses from Ida to be driven by wind, followed by inland flooding, and then storm surge. Additionally, insured wind losses will be driven by residential lines, and insured water losses will be dominated by commercial and industrial lines. Insured losses to infrastructure, watercraft, and marine cargo and specie lines in Ida will be less than US$1 billion. Based on the August 2021 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database, and modeled ensemble footprints, RMS estimates insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico from wind and wave damages to be between US$0.7–US$1.5 billion. Outside of the U.S., Ida impacted parts of the Caribbean, including Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, with strong winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding. RMS estimates less than US$100 million in insured losses from the event in the Caribbean. Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on Sunday, August 29 as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Ida produced sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (241 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. As Ida moved northward toward the Tennessee River Valley, it weakened and eventually transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone before impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions with torrential rain and flash flooding. Hurricane Ida was the ninth named storm of the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season, the fourth hurricane, and the fifth named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this season. Ida was also the fourth hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since 2020, following Hurricanes’ Laura, Delta, and Zeta. Over two months remain in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. END The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
NOIDA, India – September 8, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, and J. B. Boda Group announce a new agreement towards licensing the RMS® India Earthquake Model and RMS® India Inland Flood Model and the adoption of RMS Analytical Services, enabling J. B. Boda to offer a more comprehensive catastrophe risk view for their clients in India and around the globe. This agreement will strengthen J. B. Boda’s risk analysis capabilities to enhance their support of clients that have portfolios with risk exposure in India. J. B. Boda continues to grow its activities and client base in various markets. It is further enhancing its in-house capability of assessing risks. Rohit A. Boda, managing director, J. B. Boda, stated: “J. B. Boda is committed to offering our clients cutting-edge solutions and insights into the natural perils they are exposed to. For over 10 years, J. B. Boda has worked with RMS, and this new agreement will enable us to continue assisting our clients with modeling their exposures by using state-of-the-art technology and updated scientific research. Our in-house modeling capability will result in increased efficiency as well as more informed and up-to-date teams, which will eventually help us serve better.” Alok Kumar, managing director India, RMS, said: “We are pleased to be in a position to strengthen and expand our work with long-standing customers such as J. B. Boda. Flood and earthquake are major perils in India, and deeper insights and analysis of these risks will be greatly beneficial to all J. B. Boda’s clients.” END Notes: The RMS India Inland Flood Model and Data Products provide an advanced pluvial flood risk solution that explicitly models monsoon rainfall at its core. This solution captures over 125,000 events across 9,033 catchments throughout India and offers the most comprehensive view of flood risk in the market. The RMS India Earthquake Model identifies the level of earthquake risk for appropriate pricing based on stochastic events and their losses. RMS Analytical Services provide a new dimension for internal operations. Companies can gain access to expertise in identifying, quantifying, reporting, and managing catastrophe risk from point of underwriting to portfolio-level analysis, along with regulatory reporting and bespoke analytics. About J. B. BODA Group The J. B. Boda Group, established in 1943 by the visionaries Late Chairman Mr. Jagmohandas Bhagwandas Boda together with his brother, Late Mr. Dhirajlal Bhagwandas Boda, is the pioneer of reinsurance broking in India. The Group is the oldest and the leading broker in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and emerging countries, as well as the first Indian broker at Lloyd’s, U.K., accredited in December 2002. The Group today offers insurance, reinsurance broking, and related services such as non-marine and marine survey and loss assessment including export-import survey at major Indian ports, off-shore and on-shore survey, protection and indemnity services to Indian ship owners and charterers, risk inspection, asset valuation, life product development, life fund actuarial valuation, employee benefit valuation, wellness programs, and training/seminars for the clients. The Group is dealing in 90+ countries serving over 500 clients with a specialized workforce close to 1,000 globally with 25 branches in India and nine overseas offices.