Newark, Calif. – May 5, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, revealed that according to its new Climate Change Models, and based on today’s exposures, insured average annual losses (AAL) from North Atlantic Hurricane wind could increase by as much as 24 percent by 2050*, and European Flood risk AAL could increase by up to 59 percent by 2050**, based on no mitigating factors taken.
The new RMS Climate Change Models combine the RMS financial impact modeling framework with the best climate science consensus, including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Generally available in June 2021, these models provide the most comprehensive climate change insights for North Atlantic Hurricane, Europe Inland Flood, and Europe Windstorm. Each model quantifies and differentiates the impacts of acute physical risk due to variable potential climate change scenarios (known as Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs), different time horizons, and within specific regions. This means that organizations can make more informed decisions about the impact of climate change on different physical assets and portfolios, including residential and commercial properties, warehouses, and retail chains. Further climate change models and geographies will follow this initial model suite launch.
The new RMS Climate Change Models, data, and analytics empower boardrooms and organizations to:
Commenting on the RMS Climate Change Solutions, Tom Fink, senior vice president and managing director at Trepp, said: “Our clients in the banking and commercial real estate markets are working to quantify their exposure to environmental risks. By incorporating the RMS climate risks analytics, Trepp can better help the investment and financial services industry understand the physical risks posed by a changing climate.”
Speaking at the annual RMS Exceedance conference, RMS chief research officer, Robert Muir-Wood, said: “Unpacking the risks from climate change includes many individual perils, components, and situations, some of which are profoundly non-linear. Also, when mediated through tropical cyclone size, intensity and track, winter storms or major river floods, the relationship between climate parameters and their impacts becomes highly complex and can only be captured in a full catastrophe modeling capability that we are now delivering. Clear metrics on current and future climate perils, such as those available with the RMS Climate Change Models and Solutions, are becoming vital for the insurance industry, businesses, and investors globally. Increases in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have already driven businesses, investors, and regulators to try to assess what this means for their current and future operations.”
RMS has been modeling natural catastrophe risk for the insurance industry for more than 30 years and has been leading research into the impact of climate change on catastrophe losses since its involvement in the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report. The RMS Climate Change Solutions also include climate change specialist advisory and consulting expertise as well as regulatory, ESG, and TCFD support.
Learn more about RMS Climate Change Solutions here: https://www.rms.com/climate-change
* For North Atlantic Hurricane the figures are for wind only and do not include storm surge or tropical cyclone-induced flooding. Exposure is based on the 2019 RMS Industry Exposure Database for all lines of business; further changes in losses would be expected from changes in exposure. The figures are based on an RCP 8.5 scenario.
** For European Flood, exposure is based on the 2020 RMS Industry Exposure Database for all lines of business; further changes in losses would be expected from changes in exposure. The figures are based on an RCP 8.5 scenario. 59 percent is based on the very latest version of the EU FL climate change model.
Newark, Calif. – June 8, 2021 – Today, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced that Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models was approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 1, 2021, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to Version 21.0 hurricane models available on RiskLink® 21.0 and the Risk Modeler application on the RMS open cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™. This multi-environment approval builds on the successes of the Version 18.1 FCHLPM certification in 2019, when RMS became the first catastrophe risk modeling and solutions firm to have its hurricane models certified for use simultaneously on both on-premises and cloud software. Matthew Nielsen, senior director, regulatory affairs, RMS, said: “Obtaining FCHLPM certification is a key milestone in the development and go-to-market process of our hurricane models. It underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models, based on industry-leading science, data, methods, engineering, and software. The certification also has implications for other regions, as many other states affected by hurricanes look to Florida’s model certification process as a first step for their own state approvals.” On May 5, 2021, RMS announced updates to Version 21.0 of its hurricane models. Informed by new data and learnings from recent impactful seasons, including more than US$6 billion in new claims data, the updated hurricane models allow RMS to continue providing the (re)insurance market with the most comprehensive view of the hurricane risk landscape. Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models Suite, said: “The updates in Version 21.0 include the latest insights into current and evolving market conditions in risk-prone areas. For instance, recent changes to the statewide building code in Florida have extended the geographical applicability of roof replacement requirements throughout the state. Initial assessments suggest this may drive material increases on overall claim severity, because it means a roof that might experience as little as 25% damage is required to be replaced in full. In Version 21, alongside our reference view of vulnerability, we've introduced a new alternative view of vulnerability for residential lines in Florida to help clients understand the sensitivities of these potential impacts to their books.” Other enhancements in Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models include: Long-term event rates updates to incorporate two new seasons of hurricane activity (2017-2018) from the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) data. New medium-term rate forecast for 2021-2025 informed by data-driven updates, including the latest historical Atlantic Basin hurricane data through the record-breaking 2020 season. New historical event reconstructions from recent seasons, including hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), and Michael (2018). Vulnerability updates in the Caribbean based on new claims data and learnings from the impactful 2017-2018 seasons. Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer and executive vice president, models and data, RMS said: “As the 2021 hurricane season is now underway, it’s important to remember that hurricane is one of the biggest drivers of annual insured losses throughout the North Atlantic Basin. Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models incorporates important learnings and insights from the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, including the most new claims data and event rates informed by data from the most recent 2020 season. These advantages help give (re)insurers a more comprehensive view of risk applicable at the point of underwriting through to portfolio management and risk transfer decisions." The FCHLPM certification of Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models will be valid until November 1, 2023. Version 21.0 will be generally available on June 23, 2021, on both RiskLink and Risk Modeler simultaneously. Learn more about the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models here. The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
Newark, Calif. – May 7, 2021 – At its annual Exceedance conference this week, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, demonstrated the benefits (re)insurance customers are experiencing by moving to RMS Risk Modeler™, the cloud-based risk modeling application running on the RMS open cloud platform, Risk Intelligence™. Risk Modeler, a next-generation cloud-based modeling application, is designed to meet the complex needs of risk analysts and cat modelers at scale. Risk Modeler enables real-time risk analytics and unified, high-performance execution of RiskLink models and High-Definition (HD) simulation models. Designed with a deep understanding of customer requirements and leveraging the latest technological innovations, Risk Modeler easily integrates with other on-premise applications as well as other cloud applications through open APIs and export services, giving customers greater flexibility and choice. This week at Exceedance, the industry has heard from RMS customers about the advantages they are gaining by adopting Risk Modeler to help manage their risk portfolios. Gallagher Re, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, and Unipol spoke during the conference keynotes about their experiences with Risk Modeler to date. Howden Group also shared their insights on the benefits of Risk Modeler. Neil Bramley, analytics executive, Gallagher Re, “Gallagher was keen to take advantage of the SaaS Solution, pushing the technology harder and faster, leveraging the benefits and scale of secure cloud computing to ultimately create tangible advantage and upsides for our clients. Risk Modeler helped us grow our analytical capability tremendously and our usage stats are through the roof compared to last year, with the added benefit of zero downtime whenever our divisions are looking to access new functionality and solutions.” Gian Luca De Marchi, group chief risk officer, Unipol Gruppo S.p.A., “Risk modeling through the Risk Modeler application allows us to run portfolio analyses and to support risk management assessments for risk profiling, risk monitoring, capital allocation, and optimal risk transfer. Now, the RMS models could help us in moving to an internal model, reducing the gap between economic capital and regulatory capital, and provide robust support in meeting regulatory requirements in particular in relation to stress tests.” David Flandro, managing director, Head of HX Analytics, Howden Group, “Risk Modeler together with RMS’s trusted science is an important part of our analytics ecosystem that helps Howden provide a differentiated service to our clients and partners. The SaaS delivery and API-based development framework is well positioned to help service our digital-first vision with distinction.” Alexander Hanks, executive director, head of actuarial & analytics, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, “We worked with RMS as early adopters, making full use of Risk Modeler’s API first development approach to fully integrate modeling with our own cloud tools, switching off RiskLink and RiskBrowser in the process. Gone are the days of manually working with spreadsheets, copying and pasting and relying on manually re-running modeling of jobs. The automation work has taken manual time-consuming tasks away and we're able to spend much more time on interpreting modeling results and providing deeper insights to our clients.” Speaking at the conference, RMS CEO, Karen White, said, “When RMS launched Risk Modeler 2.0 in 2020, more customers started on their cloud migration with us. We are seeing more momentum in the industry for digital first strategies. Today, insurers, reinsurers, and brokers from every major global geographic region are on the RMS platform. Leveraging leading models, technology, and the cloud to gain greater risk insights helps them to avoid surprises, confidently deploy more capital, and potentially develop new products and new business models.”
Newark, Calif. – May 6, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced new innovations to ExposureIQ™ on the Risk Intelligence platform, including real-time catastrophe event visualizations and more powerful reporting. RMS also unveiled new capabilities to allow cross-portfolio accumulations across reinsurance and insurance workflows. ExposureIQ is an innovative, cloud-based exposure management application designed to help portfolio managers gain deeper insights into their books, scaling to millions of locations, enabling easy discovery of hotspots, diversification, and portfolio re-balancing. The application provides access to exposure information which leverages events and footprints from RMS Event Response and RMS’s unique HWind real-time forecasting capabilities, to help gain a quicker and more accurate assessment of potential losses before, during, and after an event. Real-time analysis and insight into portfolios allow for alignment with a company’s risk appetite, exposing threats and opportunities within their portfolio. The latest ExposureIQ release provides powerful reporting with an in-app dashboard that allows portfolio analysis across the most critical building criteria, allowing customers to understand how varying geocoding resolutions impact results as well as understanding which building occupancies and construction types are driving their losses. This advanced reporting functionality speeds up analysis and empowers portfolio managers to make faster, better-informed decisions. ExposureIQ is now the only application in the market to provide near real-time event visualization through a powerful new mapping module that integrates RMS Event Response and RMS HWind data. There’s no longer a need for customers to download and upload data to their system. Customers can now automatically access the latest event data, visualize events against exposures, and run accumulations – all within the application on a near real-time basis. At its annual Exceedance Conference, RMS demonstrated how ExposureIQ will expand on these capabilities to allow customers to run accumulations across both their insurance and reinsurance books of business. It will enable users to easily build structures that represent business hierarchies in an intuitive way. For the first time, customers will be able to run accumulations across portfolios and across cedents all in one application and leverage the RMS rich data catalog derived from our market-leading model science. Speaking at the annual RMS Exceedance conference, RMS executive vice president, product, Cihan Biyikoglu, said: “Exposure management is one of the most important aspects in terms of overall business profitability and keeping business risk appetite in check. Real-time exposure information such as wind forecasting from RMS Event Response gives customers the insights and control they need during critical points before, during, and after an event. The inclusion of cross-portfolio and cross-cedant accumulation in this release takes portfolio analytics to an unprecedented level. RMS understands the importance of making decisions based on quality data and insights. ExposureIQ brings together excellence in modeling with the flexibility, scale, and performance of the cloud to enable companies to develop a comprehensive view of their portfolio, optimize workflows, generate quality insights, and improve profitability.”