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Newark, CA – September 3, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total onshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Laura will be between US$9.0 and US$13.0 billion. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$400m and US$600m.

Onshore U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Laura (US$ billions):

Wind + Surge Inland Flood NFIP Total
8.5 – 12.0 0.1 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.6 9.0 – 13.0

“Although Laura avoided major metropolitan areas like Houston and New Orleans, it was still an extremely impactful U.S. event. After making landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm, it maintained its intensity as it moved inland, causing widespread wind and water-driven damage well into interior portions of Louisiana. The extent and severity of these damages has been verified by our development teams via web and aerial-based reconnaissance efforts”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.  

This estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across impacted states, including Louisiana and Texas, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints (hazard reconstructions of Laura’s wind field and storm surge) in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD (high-definition) Model. Ensemble footprints capture the uncertainties surrounding observed hazard, including wind speeds, storm surge, and wave heights. 

Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, as well as post-event loss amplification and non-modeled sources of loss. Industrial losses include impacts to speciality lines, such as refineries and petrochemical plants, many of which lie along this part of the Gulf coastline. 

The estimate also includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to reach US$400 million to US$600 million. NFIP losses were derived using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, and the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models.

RMS estimates an additional US$1.0bn to US$2.0 billion of insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave-driven damages. Offshore losses were estimated using the September 2020 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database.

“Offshore assets have evolved significantly since the impactful hurricanes of Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Ike in 2008, but there is still a prevalence of platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf region. Many of these assets, including several high-value deep-water platforms, were exposed to the significant wind and wave impacts from Hurricane Laura. At landfall, Laura produced devastating sustained winds of 150 mph [240 km/h], according to both the National Hurricane Center and RMS HWind forecasting service. Our forecasts provided clients with estimates of Laura’s potential impacts in the critical days leading up to landfall,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development

In the two days following landfall, the system weakened considerably as it tracked further inland into Arkansas and parts of the Ohio Valley. Eventually, Laura became a “remnant low” and merged with a passing extra-tropical system, accelerating eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Hurricane Laura was the twelfth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the first major hurricane of the season, and the third landfalling hurricane of the season. It was the Atlantic Basin's earliest forming twelfth storm on record, and a record seventh named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. before the end of August. NOAA expects the Atlantic to remain highly active through the remaining three months of the official 2020 hurricane season.

 

END

The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.

RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.

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August 18, 2020
RMS Estimates that Insured Losses from Hurricane Isaias Will Be Between US$3bn – US$5bn

Newark, CA – August 14, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total insured losses from Hurricane Isaias will be between US$3.0 and US$5.0 billion. The estimate includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. Hurricane Isaias insured loss estimates ranges for the U.S. and Caribbean (US$ billions): Region Insured Loss in USD B United States 3.0 - 4.5 Caribbean Less than 0.5 Total 3.0 - 5.0 “Although Isaias weakened to a tropical storm after landfall, it maintained its intensity as it moved up the U.S. east coast and underwent extratropical transition, due to its interaction with a strong jet stream and favorable atmospheric conditions. As a result, many areas of high exposure, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, were subject to stronger winds and wind gusts than would otherwise be expected, especially in coastal areas of these regions. It’s another example of how impactful low intensity storms can be”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.   For the U.S., this estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints (hazard reconstructions of Isaias’s wind field and storm surge) in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.  The U.S. estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. It also includes factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled sources of loss, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. RMS expects the majority of insured losses to impact residential lines.   “The large number of affected exposures, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., are likely to produce large claims volumes. Pressure to settle these claims quickly may lead to claims inflation. We also considered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect fewer loss inspections following this event, potentially causing prolonged repairs and recovery times, both of which tend to inflate claims costs” said Pete Dailey, vice president, Product Management, RMS. The estimate also includes estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to be between US$400m and US$700m. RMS derived the NFIP losses using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 NFIP policy-in-force data published by FEMA in 2019. RMS expects the majority of total U.S. insured losses to be driven by wind. Storm surge expected to contribute to less than 10% of the total losses.  For the Caribbean, this estimate includes wind-only losses, which RMS expects to be less than US$500 million, based on analysis of RMS post-landfall stochastic event tracks in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The Caribbean loss estimate includes property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, and industrial lines of business.  The RMS insured wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias are based on RMS industry exposure databases representing insured hurricane exposure in the U.S. and Caribbean.  Hurricane Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, and the second landfalling hurricane of the season. It was the Atlantic Basin's earliest forming "I" storm on record. Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina on August 3, 2020 as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) according to the National Hurricane Center and RMS HWind. The storm subsequently weakened to tropical storm intensity and quickly tracked northeast along the east coast of the U.S., affecting much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with tropical storm-force winds and stronger gusts.  Prior to impacting the U.S., Isaias made landfall over Andros Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, August 1, also as a Category 1 hurricane. Other Caribbean countries and territories impacted by the storm include Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos.    END The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF. …

July 30, 2020
RMS Estimates that U.S. Insured Losses from Hurricane Hanna Will Not Exceed USD $400 Million

Newark, CA – July 30, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that the U.S. insurance losses from Hurricane Hanna will not exceed USD $400 million. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind and storm surge, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). “Wind and storm surge-driven losses for Hanna are expected to be consistent with losses projected by RMS’ HWind forecast product suite prior to landfall. The storm made landfall in southern Texas as a Category 1 hurricane with stronger winds than expected. However, the impacted region is an area with low industry exposure,” said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.  This estimate includes property damage and business interruption from wind and storm surge-driven coastal flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. The estimate also includes wind-driven damage to offshore platforms in the western Gulf of Mexico; however, offshore platform loss constitutes a small fraction of the overall insured loss. Storm surge losses reflect the impact of coverage leakage, an escalation in claims severity for wind-only policies in instances where wind and water hazards co-exist in residential lines of business. Losses associated with inland flooding are expected to be negligible because the storm maintained its forward motion after landfall and only caused high rainfall totals in isolated areas. RMS expects losses to the NFIP to represent approximately USD $100 million or less of the total insured loss estimate. Texas has the second highest number of NFIP policies-in-force in the U.S., many of which are located in coastal areas impacted by storm surge from Hanna.  Hurricane Hanna was the eighth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season and the earliest eighth named storm on record. It made landfall on Saturday, July 25, 2020 on Padre Island, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 km/hr). Hanna maintained this intensity and made a second landfall shortly after in Kenedy County. For this loss estimate, wind and storm surge impacts were simulated using version 18.1 RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and RMS ensemble footprints, which are hazard reconstructions of Hanna’s wind field and storm surge. END The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.…

About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) helps insurers, financial markets, corporations, and public agencies evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by marrying data and advanced model science with leading-edge SaaS technology. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI), our open, unified cloud platform for global risk, enabling them to tap into RMS HD models, rich data layers, intuitive applications, and APIs.

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a new modern open standard data schema designed to be an extensible, flexible, and future-proof asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner enabling effective risk management for better business decision making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Devonne Cusi

PR Lead, Americas
+1 551 226 1604 prteam@rms.com
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