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London, U.K. – September 14, 2018 – RMS®, a global catastrophe risk modeling and analytics company, has estimated that the insured loss for Japan from Typhoon Jebi will be between USD$3 billion and $5.5billion (¥340 to ¥620billion).

This estimate is based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed event footprint through the RMS Japan Typhoon High Definition model, using the 2018 Japan Typhoon Industry Exposure Database. In addition, to develop and enhance these industry loss estimates, RMS participated in remote and in-person reconnaissance; conducted by risk modelers from the RMS office in Tokyo.

Approximately 80 percent of the loss comes from the Kansai region, where Jebi made a second landfall west of Kobe, impacting the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe conurbation.

Within the Kansai region, the loss is driven predominantly from Osaka Prefecture. The estimate also accounts for the wind footprint affecting large parts of Japan; including in northern Honshu and in Hokkaido where, when tracking offshore, the typhoon impacted these areas while undergoing extratropical transitioning.

The RMS estimate includes typhoon coastal flooding - observed in Kansai International Airport, in the ports of Kobe and Osaka, and in localized areas of reclaimed land/barrier islands in Osaka Bay. Typhoon driven inland flooding is deemed to be negligible from this event.

Marine cargo losses are included in the estimate, from the Kobe and Osaka ports – primarily from typhoon driven coastal flooding.

Post Loss Amplification is not anticipated to be a significant factor for Typhoon Jebi. The estimate excludes losses from damage to infrastructure and port facilities. Marine hull is not included, neither are claims adjustment expenses, nor some aspects of business interruption including Contingent Business Interruption.

Yasunori Araga, President, RMS Japan, said: “2018 continues to be an eventful year for natural catastrophes in Japan, both for earthquakes and typhoons. The RMS Japan Typhoon High Definition model has been used for this assessment, as has the Japan Earthquake High Definition model in recent months. The investment from RMS into the technology and science for the Japan models reflects the determination to allow all our clients the best view of risk in Japan; which, as recent events show, is of vital importance.”

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About Moody's RMS

Moody’s RMS shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector, with Moody’s RMS models underlying the nearly $2 trillion USD Property & Casualty industry. Moody’s RMS empowers organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

Moody’s RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation, unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Organizations can address the risks of tomorrow with the Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence.

Further supporting the industry’s transition to modern risk management, in 2020, Moody’s RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems.

In 2021, Moody’s Corporation acquired Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and as part of Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s RMS serves the P&C insurance industry as the leading provider of expertise, science, and technology in integrated risk. A trusted solutions partner, Moody’s RMS enables effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

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RMS is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Haggie Partners

PR Lead, Americas
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