NEWARK, Calif. - May 18, 2016 RMS, a global catastrophe risk management firm, has completed groundbreaking analysis to quantify the economic risk to San Francisco’s property from future sea level rise. The analysis was used to inform the city’s recently released Sea Level Rise Action Plan, commissioned by Mayor Edwin Lee, and is based on the National Research Council’s upper-end projection of a 66-inch sea level rise by the year 2100.
RMS found that $55 billion of private and public sector property in the low-lying coastal areas around San Francisco would be permanently inundated by the end of the century. The calculation assumes that no measures are put in place to increase the city’s resilience and reflects present day costs to rebuild the affected buildings and infrastructure, rather than the market values 84 years from now.
RMS also calculated the property loss estimates for a 1-in-100-year extreme storm surge temporarily pushing up sea levels further to 108 inches. In this scenario an additional $22 billion of property assets would be at risk, bringing the total exposure to $77 billion.
Patrick Otellini, San Francisco’s Chief Resilience Officer said:“RMS was an essential partner in helping us deliver on Mayor Ed Lee’s directive to quantify the City’s risk from sea level rise as part of establishing our Sea Level Rise Action Plan. It was a great example of a successful public-private partnership. We believe RMS provided the highest resolution analysis that any major city in the world has used to quantify risk from sea level rise, and we now have a strong foundation for establishing our adaptation plans.”
Since publishing the Sea Level Rise Action Plan San Francisco’s mayor has announced an $8 million investment over the next two years to begin strengthening the city’s seawall, a critical piece of infrastructure, which provides flood protection to the downtown district.
“Our sea-level rise impact analysis for the City of San Francisco is already delivering results, by helping the city decide where to prioritize action and investment for resilience building projects, such as reinforcing the seawall,” said RMS’ Chief Strategy Officer, Paul VanderMarck. “As a company headquartered in the Bay Area, we appreciate first-hand the importance of increasing the city’s resilience to sea-level rise. But San Francisco is not unique in this respect. Coastal cities across the world face the same challenges from climate change.”
The project with the City of San Francisco is a milestone in RMS’ work with the public sector. As a result of RMS’ partnership with 100 Resilient Cities and the Rockefeller Foundation RMS has committed to help cities around the world in their efforts to improve resilience. The San Francisco project highlights the firm’s ability to use its unique expertise to quantify the shocks and stresses that can afflict cities.
Michael Berkowitz, President of 100 Resilient Cities said: “We know that sea level rise is coming and that it will impact our coastal cities. The opportunity is for San Francisco and the Bay Area to manage that and other complex issues ahead. RMS’ work shows the value of partnering with experts in the private sector to understand and quantify the impact these shocks and stresses may have, and how to reduce them. Building resilience across the world’s cities will naturally require partnerships with various sectors. To manage risk we need to measure it — and partners like RMS are key to that challenge.”
At RMS’ annual Exceedance conference in Miami this week, the first ever international workshop will be convened to help public sector leaders understand the application of resilience analytics. It will explore the value of science-based catastrophe modeling tools to help government and its agencies plan for risks such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, pandemics, wildfire, drought, terrorism and cyber-attacks. And, crucially, it will discuss how to finance those strategies.
Daniel Stander, Managing Director at RMS said: “Local, regional and national governments worldwide are increasingly embracing more comprehensive and actionable metrics to close the resilience gap. When considering the complex interplay between catastrophic shocks (like storms) and background stresses (like climate change) San Francisco’s approach provides an excellent example for other coastal cities of how to develop consensus around investments which build resilience.”
Notes to Editors:
The analysis used RMS’ proprietary data on individual buildings in San Francisco combined with information provided by the city on public assets. The $77 billion of property exposed to the most extreme scenario consists of 2,606 private sector buildings with a total value of $39 billion as well as $35 billion of public assets including city buildings, port facilities, San Francisco airport, the northern waterfront seawall and various other forms of infrastructure.
Newark, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20. RMS insured losses represent estimates from major wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado at December 1, 2020: Region Insured Losses (USD $ bn) as of 1 December, 2020 Northern California Oregon and Washington Colorado 5.0 - 9.0 1.0 - 3.0 Up to 1.0 The RMS estimate includes losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI), and additional living expenses (ALE) across residential, commercial, and industrial lines. Smoke and evacuation are expected to be significant contributors to losses for the wildfires this season, contributing about 20 percent of losses in California and Colorado and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington. The estimate also accounts for notable post-event loss amplification (PLA) from property damage (25 to 30 percent) and business interruption/ALE (up to 100 percent or greater). The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the U.S. Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Model, part of the North America Wildfire HD Model suite, released in February, 2019. The model covers the entire contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports from federal and respective state agencies for the Oregon, Washington, and Colorado fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database. Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “2020 represents the most destructive fire season on record, in terms of burn area in California. Since August, 69 major fires that exceeded 1,000 burned acres each, have burned so far. Five of the six largest ever California wildfires have occurred in 2020, with over 4.4 million acres burned in total to date. While fires earlier in the season were dominated by ignitions sparked by the intense lightning storm in August, extreme wind-driven fires dominated the last few months. A similar phenomenon resulted in record-breaking fires in Oregon as well this season, with over 20 major fires driven by extreme winds, burning more than 1.2 million acres so far. In October, Colorado experienced its three largest destructive fires with more than 24 major fires burning 850,000 acres in total. Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development said: “This wildfire season reaffirms the growing catastrophic nature of this peril. Wildfire risk is clearly evolving, not only in California, but also in other states, as we observed in Oregon and Colorado. While changing climate patterns have significantly influenced the record-breaking fires this season, several other factors also profoundly affected the ignition potential and expected losses from these events in different ways. Most notable amongst them are the Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) measures undertaken by utilities, preparedness and response of firefighters in Northern California despite COVID-19 challenges, and recent legislative actions governing wildfire claims settlement such as the California Senate Bill 872. RMS is currently engaged with various stakeholders in evaluating these factors and understanding their impact on the emerging risk profile of this peril as part of its wildfire modeling agenda.” END The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
London, UK – 23rd Nov, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, collaborated with Willis Re Securities and Securian Financial to launch the new La Vie Re Limited (Series 2020-1) mortality catastrophe bond providing US$100m of reinsurance protection for Minnesota Life Insurance Company, a Securian Financial affiliate. RMS acted as the modeling agent on the cat bond transaction, providing a view of the risk covered by the bond to investors. RMS used its suite of excess mortality and morbidity models, covering infectious disease pandemics, terrorism, earthquakes, and other perils, including a contribution to the expected loss from the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering the U.S., this is the first indemnity 144A excess mortality bond that models the cedants’ portfolio on a loss ratio basis. The notes being issued by La Vie Re were launched to cat bond investors, and the full US$100m principal was achieved with a coupon price of 2.85%. Jin Shah, Client Director, RMS, said: “Investors have warmly welcomed Securian Financial as a new sponsor to the ILS market. Likewise, RMS is pleased to support another new issuer secure reinsurance protection from the ILS market with a novel structure and trigger. Using our life risk modeling capabilities, RMS developed an indemnity trigger on loss ratios and supported investors’ understanding of the risk, especially on the contribution from the current COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic outlooks reflect the latest research on vaccine availability, efficacy and distribution, and how this may mitigate the impact of a second, winter wave of COVID-19 infections threatening regions where strict social distancing measures have been relaxed. It was a pleasure to collaborate with Securian Financial and Willis Re Securities and it’s great to see the ILS market continue to support innovation in the market.”
NEWARK, CA – October 27, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, announces the appointment of Patrick (Pat) McCarthy as Executive Vice President of Sales and Client Development, with immediate effect. Pat will lead this global organization for RMS, and brings a successful track record of delivering meaningful innovations and high-value solutions to some of the world’s most revered enterprises. Pat joins RMS from SAP, where most recently he was Senior Vice President and General Manager of SAP’s Ariba and Fieldglass businesses, focused on enterprise supply chain optimization and risk reduction. He also supported customers as they moved from legacy solutions to SaaS, always with an eye on value creation. Pat had been at SAP for 15 years in various senior roles including as COO for a large part of the US business, the Midwest Market Unit. Prior to SAP, Pat spent seven years at Oracle in various leadership roles spanning sales, industry, and solution roles in its JD Edwards and PeopleSoft businesses. Pat started his career with ten years at Frito-Lay and Pepsi-Co, where he held several management roles. Pat will report directly to RMS CEO, Karen White. Karen White, Chief Executive Officer at RMS, said: “Pat is joining at an exciting and challenging time in our industry and at RMS. He is exceptionally strategic and has earned his stellar reputation for bringing mission-critical innovations and solutions to global customers. Pat’s impressive approach to deeply understanding the markets and enterprise customers he serves, with an eye on helping them to innovate and on their business outcomes, is aligned with RMS’s mission to be a strong strategic partner for our customers. Pat’s formidable experience supporting global customers as they leveraged leading-edge technology and solutions to advance their businesses will be a great asset to RMS and the customers we serve.” Pat McCarthy added: “I’m very excited to be joining RMS as it’s an honor to work for a company so focused on building resilience into businesses and economies. For 30 years, RMS’s science and models have been the most trusted view of risk in the industry. It’s more important now than ever before that clients have access to the best modeling science and platforms, helping them drive business results that exceed their expectation. I’m pleased to be leading a team that continues to leverage our core strengths and simultaneously maps out a future with our clients that leverages innovations and the latest science as we tackle the future of risk.”