RMS Analysis Finds $77 Billion of Property in San Francisco is at Risk from Sea Level Rise by the Year 2100
Announcement comes as RMS holds first international workshop on the use of risk modeling by the public sector to make cities more resilient
NEWARK, Calif. -
May 18, 2016 -
RMS, a global catastrophe risk management firm, has completed groundbreaking analysis to quantify the economic risk to San Francisco’s property from future sea level rise. The analysis was used to inform the city’s recently released Sea Level Rise Action Plan, commissioned by Mayor Edwin Lee, and is based on the National Research Council’s upper-end projection of a 66-inch sea level rise by the year 2100.
RMS found that $55 billion of private and public sector property in the low-lying coastal areas around San Francisco would be permanently inundated by the end of the century. The calculation assumes that no measures are put in place to increase the city’s resilience and reflects present day costs to rebuild the affected buildings and infrastructure, rather than the market values 84 years from now.
RMS also calculated the property loss estimates for a 1-in-100-year extreme storm surge temporarily pushing up sea levels further to 108 inches. In this scenario an additional $22 billion of property assets would be at risk, bringing the total exposure to $77 billion.
Patrick Otellini, San Francisco’s Chief Resilience Officer, said: “RMS was an essential partner in helping us deliver on Mayor Ed Lee’s directive to quantify the City’s risk from sea level rise as part of establishing our Sea Level Rise Action Plan. It was a great example of a successful public-private partnership. We believe RMS provided the highest resolution analysis that any major city in the world has used to quantify risk from sea level rise, and we now have a strong foundation for establishing our adaptation plans.”
Since publishing the Sea Level Rise Action Plan San Francisco’s mayor has announced an $8 million investment over the next two years to begin strengthening the city’s seawall, a critical piece of infrastructure, which provides flood protection to the downtown district.
“Our sea-level rise impact analysis for the City of San Francisco is already delivering results, by helping the city decide where to prioritize action and investment for resilience building projects, such as reinforcing the seawall,” said RMS’ Chief Strategy Officer, Paul VanderMarck. “As a company headquartered in the Bay Area, we appreciate first-hand the importance of increasing the city’s resilience to sea-level rise. But San Francisco is not unique in this respect. Coastal cities across the world face the same challenges from climate change.”
The project with the City of San Francisco is a milestone in RMS’ work with the public sector. As a result of RMS’ partnership with 100 Resilient Cities and the Rockefeller Foundation RMS has committed to help cities around the world in their efforts to improve resilience. The San Francisco project highlights the firm’s ability to use its unique expertise to quantify the shocks and stresses that can afflict cities.
Michael Berkowitz, President of 100 Resilient Cities, said: “We know that sea level rise is coming and that it will impact our coastal cities. The opportunity is for San Francisco and the Bay Area to manage that and other complex issues ahead. RMS’ work shows the value of partnering with experts in the private sector to understand and quantify the impact these shocks and stresses may have, and how to reduce them. Building resilience across the world’s cities will naturally require partnerships with various sectors. To manage risk we need to measure it — and partners like RMS are key to that challenge.”
At RMS’ annual Exceedance conference in Miami this week, the first ever international workshop will be convened to help public sector leaders understand the application of resilience analytics. It will explore the value of science-based catastrophe modeling tools to help government and its agencies plan for risks such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, pandemics, wildfire, drought, terrorism and cyber-attacks. And, crucially, it will discuss how to finance those strategies.
Daniel Stander, Managing Director at RMS said: “Local, regional and national governments worldwide are increasingly embracing more comprehensive and actionable metrics to close the resilience gap. When considering the complex interplay between catastrophic shocks (like storms) and background stresses (like climate change) San Francisco’s approach provides an excellent example for other coastal cities of how to develop consensus around investments which build resilience.”
Notes to Editors:
The analysis used RMS’ proprietary data on individual buildings in San Francisco combined with information provided by the city on public assets. The $77 billion of property exposed to the most extreme scenario consists of 2,606 private sector buildings with a total value of $39 billion as well as $35 billion of public assets including city buildings, port facilities, San Francisco airport, the northern waterfront seawall and various other forms of infrastructure.
The City of San Francisco’s Sea Level Rise Action Plan can be downloaded here. Details of RMS’ Resilience 2016 workshop can be found here.
RMS models and software help financial institutions and public agencies evaluate and manage catastrophe risks throughout the world, promoting resilient societies and a sustainable global economy.