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Tag: counterfactual analysis
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Searching for Surprise Catastrophes: The Beirut ...
The history of catastrophe modeling over the past three decades, has been punctuated sporadically by catastrophes which have caused enormous…
London Bridge Terrorism Inquests: A Counterfactu...
The inquests into the deaths of eight individuals killed in a terrorist attack on London Bridge and in Borough Market on June 3, 2017, were…
Reimagining the 1918 Pandemic
Ask any child, a world without Walt Disney would be unimaginable. Born in December 1901, Walt was sixteen years old when he caught the 1918…
Reimagining History – Counterfactual Risk Analysis
Just under ten years ago, as the global financial crisis was unfolding, the book The Black Swan emerged as the most quoted critique of the…
Learning More About Catastrophe Risk From History
In my invited presentation on October 22, 2015 at the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries GIRO conference in Liverpool, I discussed how…
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