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NEWARK, CA – August 23, 2021RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that insured losses from the Western and Central Europe flooding that occurred between July 12 and 18, 2021 will likely range between €5 billion and €6.5 billion (US$6 billion and US$7.7 billion).

RMS reconstructed a flood hazard footprint that covers the worst affected areas, including western and southern Germany, eastern Belgium, eastern France and Luxembourg. RMS estimates that the total insured losses for these regions will likely be in the range of €5 billion to €6.5 billion. Germany is the dominant contributor of loss to the event with about 70 percent of the total loss, followed by Belgium with about 25 percent of the loss.  

The loss estimate was calculated through an analysis of the brand-new flood footprint functionality in the RMS Europe Inland Flood HD Models running on Risk Modeler™. The new flood footprint functionality allows users to run the footprint on their own exposure to obtain a granular bespoke loss estimate.

The loss estimate includes insured property and business interruption loss to residential, commercial, industrial, automobile, and infrastructure lines and accounts for the potential of post-event loss amplification and extended business interruption. It excludes losses observed in the Netherlands, which sits outside of the model domain, and losses in Switzerland, Bavaria and Saxony in Germany, and Austria, which were caused outside the time window of the heaviest rainfall. 

Daniel Bernet, product manager, Europe Flood Models, RMS: “In terms of loss, this event is expected to be comparable to the costliest European flood events in recent history, the Central and Eastern Europe floods of 2002 and 2013. However, unlike the 2002 and 2013 events during which overtopping and breaching of major rivers contributed substantially to overall damages, the 2021 event occurred in a different region and was characterized with much steeper and faster flood waves with higher flow velocities in smaller rivers and tributaries that caused substantial structural damage, and regretfully, an unusually high number of fatalities.”

A stationary low-pressure system, named Bernd by the Berlin Institute of Meteorology, triggered intense rainfalls over Western and Central Europe, as well as swaths of severe convective storms leading to widespread and record-breaking flooding. Affected countries include Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, and Austria.  

ENDS

The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.

RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.

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About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) a Moody's Analytics company, shapes the world's view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector. We empower organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics. RMS models underlie the nearly US$2 trillion Property & Casualty industry and many insurers, reinsurers, and brokers around the world rely on RMS model science.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by offering unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence across organizations and industries. 

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner, enabling effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

RMS is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Haggie Partners

PR Lead, Americas
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