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NEWARK, CA – May 4th, 2020: RMS, the leading global risk modeling and analytics firm, announced today at its annual Exceedance conference the release of new European Severe Convective Storm (EU SCS) High Definition Models. The models represent 50,000 years of simulation of hail and straight-line wind and tornado risk and include all key lines of business -- including automobile and property. In addition, the models cover 17* countries in Europe, complementing the RMS European climate hazard model suite. 

Severe convective storms in Europe generally occur within the mid-latitudes in summer and can cause extensive loss to vehicles and property. Sometimes viewed as an attritional peril, severe convective storm risk is often managed using historical experience, despite incomplete observational reporting. Recent events have shown the potential cost this peril can cause for the (re)insurance industry. From 2013 to 2019, losses from major and attritional severe convective storms exceeded €12 billion.

The models cover the full spectrum of sources of SCS loss, from localized tornadoes and hailstorms to large derechos. The HD framework enables modeling time-based policy conditions such as hours clauses of varying length, fulfilling the diverse needs of European insurers for underwriting, portfolio management, and capital adequacy. The models were developed based on the latest scientific research and complement the existing suite of RMS climate peril models for Europe, providing users with a holistic view of climate risk across the domain. 

Severe convective storms have the particularity to drive significant impact to both property and automobile lines of business. RMS employs innovative technology to model the vulnerability of these two lines. This includes dynamic modeling of automobile movement, helping users understand sensitivity in vehicle vulnerability due to variation in location and time of day. 

The RMS Severe Convective Storm HD Models benefit from the HD simulation technology available within the RMS unified cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI). With the new version of Risk Modeler 2.0™, which runs on RI, HD Models will now be integrated to work in the familiar workflows RiskLink® provides for RMS’s existing users, and the new HD Models are seamlessly integrated with RiskLink models for side by side use. The RMS Severe Convective Storm HD models are available today through Analytical Services, for evaluation and validation, and will be running on Risk Modeler 2.0 for summer 2020.  

Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, RMS said:“RMS’ EUSCS HD Models give a pan-European view of convective storm risk, developed using latest scientific research, and complementing the existing RMS Europe Wind & Flood solutions, providing users with a holistic view of climate risk across the domain. It covers the full spectrum of SCS hazards - from localized tornadoes, diverse hailstorms, to large derechos. We use a hybrid modeling approach combining parametric and statistical methods which best capture storm footprints, and their associated frequency and severity, hence enabling the assessment of cross-peril correlations. The multi-peril stochastic set includes over 7.5 million events, covering 17 countries, based on 50,000 years of simulations, so that we appropriately capture the spatial and temporal scale of convective storm risk in the European modelling domain. This provides in-depth analytics not only on potential loss magnitudes for insurers’ portfolios, but it also captures the geographic and sub-peril correlations accurately. The model is calibrated using billions of Euro property and automobiles claims data.”

RMS High Definition Models are the next generation of risk modeling, delivering greater analysis and granularity than ever before. RMS HD Models have now all undergone a significant upgrade as they transitioned to the Risk Modeler application, which gives them greater flexibility and computational strength. The following models are in addition to the US Flood and US Wildfire HD Models that have been available through Risk Modeler’s earlier version: 

  • Updated Europe Inland Flood Model suite that covers 18 river basins and over 8,000 catchments across 15 countries in Europe
  • Updated Japan Earthquake and Tsunami and New Zealand Earthquake models that both include sub-peril coverage for tsunami, fire-following, liquefaction and landslides
  • Updated Japan Typhoon and Inland Flood Model that incorporates the most recent events such as Typhoons Jebi, Faxai and Hagibis.

Each of these models is available today through Analytical Services and for evaluation and validation, and will be coming onto Risk Modeler 2.0 for June-September 2020.  

ENDS

* - The 17 countries are: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Ireland, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. France includes Monaco; Italy includes San Marino and Vatican City.

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March 22, 2021
RMS Launches New Climate Change Models

Newark, CA – March 22, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, today announced the forthcoming launch of a new suite of Climate Change Models to help customers assess the near and long term impacts of climate change on physical assets and their businesses, in order to make the best possible risk and financial decisions.   According to RMS CEO, Karen White, “Today there are no robust or consistent frameworks that can quantify the physical risks posed by catastrophes in a changing climate at the depth required.  The innovative suite of RMS Climate Change Models changes that, giving the market a powerful new set of tools. With increasing Board-level attention, stakeholder scrutiny, and regulatory pressure, businesses need to operationalize climate change analytics to make better decisions and enable better transparency. It is clear that the financial impacts of climate change are not solely a “future problem”. The increasing incidence of wildfires, floods and hurricanes mean that climate change insights need to be incorporated into financial decisions that are being made today, in parallel with long term strategic planning and meeting increasing regulatory, environmental, social and governance (ESG) and TCFD reporting requirements, and investor and customer demands. This necessitates a climate change framework and models fully consistent with today’s catastrophe risk analytics and one which addresses the challenges posed by physical climate change risk and its broad impact across all relevant time scales – from today through to the end of the century.” Most RMS models, including all major peril models, already incorporate the impact of climate change up until now – but more is required to meet the evolving and significant market needs. The new RMS Climate Change Models take our existing capabilities further with forward-looking predictive insights and analysis. The new Climate Change Models empower RMS’s economic modeling framework with the best climate science consensus, including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  The new models will be generally available in June for major peril models North Atlantic Hurricane, Europe Inland Flood and Europe Windstorm. Further models and geographies will follow this initial model suite launch. The RMS climate change solutions also include climate change specialist advisory and consulting expertise and regulatory, ESG and TCFD support.   The Climate Change Models address the perils most impacted by climate change and feature: Probabilistic modeling to capture events across different climate change scenarios The ability to adjust time horizons and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) A proprietary industry and economic exposure database to deliver more accurate and impactful climate change models Embeddable software which integrates into existing workflows to facilitate seamless and easy operationalization  Consulting and additional expertise supporting regulatory submissions and activities, and providing insights from these new models today   Commenting on the RMS climate change solutions, Eric Letourneau, SVP, Group Head of CAT Accumulation Management, QBE, said: “The insights on climate risk provided by RMS have enabled us to better understand climate-related risks and opportunities for our business, to report those insights to financial stakeholders, and to develop and test strategy for our business. We can embed these analytics in our business processes, confident that we have consistency with how we measure underwriting risk and capital requirements now and in the future.” The new RMS Climate Change Models, data, and analytics empower organizations to: Understand the impacts climate change may have on capital and assets today and in the future Price and manage risks to better reflect changing conditions Confidently communicate risks posed by climate change to all stakeholders Comply with regulatory submissions in an efficient and sustainable way RMS has been modeling natural catastrophe risk for the insurance industry for more than 30 years and has been leading research into the impact of climate change on catastrophic losses since RMS’s involvement in the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report.   You can learn more about RMS Climate Change solutions here:   https://www.rms.com/climate-change  

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RMS Estimates that Total Insured Losses from the 2020 Western U.S. Wildfires Will Be Between US$7bn – US$13bn

Newark, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20. 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As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.

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About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector. We empower organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by offering unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI), our open, unified cloud platform for global risk, which enables them to tap into RMS HD models, rich data layers, intuitive applications, and APIs.

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a new modern open standard data schema designed to be an extensible, flexible, and future-proof asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner, enabling effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

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Matthew Longbottom

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+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Devonne Cusi

PR Lead, Americas
+1 551 226 1604 prteam@rms.com
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