Newark, CA – May 4, 2020: As the world is changing in profound ways, so is risk. Climate change, pandemic events, and cyberattacks are threats we all now have to consider in new and innovative ways. With better understanding of risks, better decisions can be made, enabling better risk management end-to-end. Today, at the opening of its annual Exceedance conference, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, announced significant new model and product releases and updates for RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI).
RMS Risk Intelligence (RI), first launched in May 2019, is an open, modular, unified, and reliable cloud platform that enables advanced modeling, deeper risk insights and analytics. Leveraging a cloud-native architecture, RI delivers higher performance and scale. With the RMS Risk Intelligence platform, there is no hardware or software to maintain, focused on reducing cost of ownership. The platform enables (re)insurers, the capital market, governments, and other organizations to efficiently operate and manage all their RMS risk models in the cloud, with an intuitive user experience, integrated with advanced risk analytics. RI is compliant with all industry recognized best-in-class security requirements such as GDPR, ISO27001, C5 and SOC2.
This week, during the virtual Exceedance 2020 conference, RMS will demonstrate significant advancements on RMS Risk Intelligence.
Risk Modeler 2.0
Risk Modeler 2.0™ is a break-through product release at RMS, running on RMS Risk Intelligence. Risk Modeler 2.0 provides advanced portfolio and account risk analyses leveraging RMS models and is designed to meet the complex needs of risk analysts and cat modelers. The latest version of the Risk Modeler product enables real-time risk analytics and unified, high performance execution of RiskLink® models and HD Models. It can also be easily integrated with on-premises modeling and other on-premises applications as well as other cloud applications through open APIs, giving customers maximum flexibility and choice. Risk Modeler 2.0 offers an all-in-one RiskLink and RiskBrowser experience, with familiar features along with an enhanced, intuitive user interface that streamlines workflows to reduce the time and steps it takes to complete complex analyses. Risk Modeler 2.0 is a unified modeling and analytics solution for an entire organization to run portfolio and account modeling workflows, promoting real-time risk insights.
Risk Modeler 2.0 provides:
Risk Modeler 2.0 is available to customers in preview today and will be generally available with RiskLink models, with initial HD models in preview, by June 2020.
Risk Modeler with New HD Models
RMS High Definition Models are the next generation of risk modeling, delivering greater analysis and granularity than ever before. RMS HD Models have now all undergone a significant upgrade as they transitioned to the Risk Modeler application, which gives them greater flexibility and computational strength. The following models are in addition to the US Flood and US Wildfire HD Models that have been available through Risk Modeler’s earlier version:
All these HD Models are available today, and will be generally available between June and September 2020 in the Risk Modeler 2.0 application. Customers can evaluate and validate these models even earlier with the preview program for Risk Modeler, or through Analytical Services. Customers can access the Europe Inland Flood and US Wildfire Models starting in June on Risk Modeler 2.0, followed by Europe Severe Convective Storm, Japan Typhoon, Japan Earthquake and New Zealand Earthquake Models coming onto Risk Modeler 2.0 shortly after. All HD models will be generally available on the new Risk Modeler 2.0 by September 2020.
Analytical Application Suite
RMS Risk Intelligence also offers a new suite of advanced applications that are tailored for specific portfolio management and underwriting tasks. These include:
Cihan Biyikoglu, Executive Vice President, Product, at RMS, said: “The significant advancements that the RMS team has made across all our products, HD Models, and especially Risk Modeler have been possible through collaboration with more than 400 RMS customers this past year. The Risk Intelligence unified cloud platform, through its innovative use of the risk data lake, the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), unified modeling and IQ applications - securely brings greater scale, capabilities and risk insights to the market. I am also excited about what the future holds in terms of new products and technologies. Further developments of the machine learning and artificial intelligence tools used by RMS will continue to open greater opportunities.”
Karen White, Chief Executive Officer at RMS said, “Risk Intelligence is the world’s first comprehensive global risk platform. The complexity and connectedness of risks continually confront us - we are all experiencing the crisis of COVID-19, along with the persistent crises of climate change, extreme weather and growing cyber threats. Facing all this, our industry needs a modern risk platform that takes advantage of all manner of data, modeling and analytics, in a way that is fast, integrated, and leverages technology in new ways for better insights and outcomes. RMS promised innovation, and with Risk Modeler 2.0 and the IQ applications, we have delivered – with an integrated platform for modeling risk in the cloud at the scale and speed required to take on the future of risk.”
Newark, CA – September 23, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that the total U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Nicholas to be between US$1.1 and US$2.2 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Nicholas made landfall on September 14, 2021 near Sargent Beach, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h). The storm brought hurricane-force winds, prolonged heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast, including many areas in southern Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida, as well as Hurricanes’ Laura and Delta (2020). Total insured loss estimates for Hurricane Nicholas (US$ billions): Wind + Surge Private Inland Flood NFIP Total 0.7 – 1.4 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.5 1.1 – 2.2 RMS estimates US$700 million to US$1.4 billion in privately insured wind and storm surge losses based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Nicholas’ hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The precipitation-induced inland flooding losses were generated using footprints from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. RMS modelers developed and validated the wind, storm surge, and inland flood reconstructions and corresponding loss estimates using publicly available observations, including wind stations, rivers water level gauge data, and web reconnaissance. “A notable impact from this event is the rainfalls, especially in Louisiana, where many towns and cities are still in the early stages of recovery after Hurricane Ida. RMS event response teams estimate roughly 40 percent of postal codes in Louisiana that were impacted by flooding in Nicholas were also impacted by flooding from Ida a few weeks earlier. We expect the overlapping nature of these two storms to further amplify losses, including the risk of rainfall infiltration, and to prolong the claims settlement process,” says Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The estimate also includes US$200 – $500 million in losses for NFIP in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico region. NFIP losses were derived using RMS’ view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, Version 21 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and considers sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA). RMS expects the majority of wind and storm surge losses to come from Texas, and the majority of the NFIP and insured flood losses to come from Louisiana. Hurricane Nicholas was the fourteenth named storm of the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season and the sixth hurricane. It was the second hurricane to make landfall this season. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. END The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
Newark, CA – September 16, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore and offshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Ida to be between US$31 and US$44 billion. The estimate builds upon the earlier industry loss estimate of US$25-$35 billion for the Gulf of Mexico region, to include inland flooding impacts in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. regions. RMS estimates US$6–$9 billion in insured losses from precipitation-induced flooding in the Atlantic states in this event. The majority of the insured flood losses in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. – between US$4.5 and US$7.0 billion, will be to the private market, with an additional US$1.5–$2.0 billion to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Total U.S. onshore and offshore insured loss estimates for Hurricane Ida (US$ billions): Wind + Surge Inland Flood NFIP Offshore Energy Total Gulf 21 - 28 1.0 - 1.5 2.3 - 4.0 0.7 - 1.5 25 - 35 Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast U.S. n/a 4.5 - 7.0 1.5 - 2.0 n/a 6 - 9 Total U.S. Onshore and Offshore 21 - 28 5.5 - 8.5 3.8 - 6.0 0.7 - 1.5 31 - 44 The overall industry loss estimate for this event includes wind and storm surge losses in the Gulf of Mexico based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Ida’s hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The industry estimate also includes impacts from precipitation-induced inland flooding in the Gulf Coast states (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi), Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions, using footprints from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. “Ida will be remembered as a wind and storm surge event in the Gulf of Mexico, and a flood event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. The storm’s remnants brought historic amounts of rainfall over just a few hours to some of the most exposure-dense areas in that part of the country. Many locations from Philadelphia to New York City experienced six-hourly rainfall totals in excess of 100-year return period levels, which is beyond building design standards in that region, causing widespread fluvial and pluvial flooding. The fact that this region also experienced heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Henri a few weeks prior created saturated antecedent conditions that exacerbated the extent and severity of flooding in Ida,” said Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. Losses for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, as well as sources of post-event loss amplification and leakage of flood losses onto windstorm policies. “RMS expects insured losses associated with precipitation-induced inland flooding to be material in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, even though a sizable flood protection gap remains. RMS estimates total economic losses from flooding in this region to be over US$15 billion, meaning that the majority of flood damages for this event will be uninsured. Many properties in New York and New Jersey had inundated basements in areas outside the designated FEMA special flood hazard areas (SFHAs), which drive the requirement for homeowners to obtain a flood insurance policy. While such losses will unlikely be covered unless they have a flood insurance policy, the pressure to expedite claims processing in this region is likely to cause coverage leakage as frequently seen with storm surge. We expect a portion of the uncovered flood-related losses in Ida to be paid out on wind policies, especially for residential lines without NFIP coverage,” said Firas Saleh, Director, RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. Total insured losses from Ida reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, automobile, industrial, infrastructure, marine cargo and specie, watercraft, and other specialty lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. “We expect a sizable portion of the overall insured losses from Ida to be associated with post-event loss amplification. A combination of COVID-19 related impacts, including rising construction costs, labor shortages, and fewer loss inspections could contribute to economic demand surge as repairs are undertaken in the coming months. That, along with prolonged power outages will only lengthen recovery and repair times, all of which may lead to increased overall claim costs in this event,” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development, RMS. The total U.S. insured loss estimate includes US$3.8–US$6 billion losses to the NFIP, with US$1.5–US$2 billion expected to come from the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast states. NFIP losses were derived using RMS’ view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 21 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. While flood policy take-up is significant in coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, some of the areas worst affected by floods during Ida have minimal (<10%) NFIP participation. RMS expects the majority of onshore insured losses from Ida to be driven by wind, followed by inland flooding, and then storm surge. Additionally, insured wind losses will be driven by residential lines, and insured water losses will be dominated by commercial and industrial lines. Insured losses to infrastructure, watercraft, and marine cargo and specie lines in Ida will be less than US$1 billion. Based on the August 2021 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database, and modeled ensemble footprints, RMS estimates insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico from wind and wave damages to be between US$0.7–US$1.5 billion. Outside of the U.S., Ida impacted parts of the Caribbean, including Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, with strong winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding. RMS estimates less than US$100 million in insured losses from the event in the Caribbean. Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on Sunday, August 29 as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Ida produced sustained winds of 150 miles per hour (241 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. As Ida moved northward toward the Tennessee River Valley, it weakened and eventually transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone before impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions with torrential rain and flash flooding. Hurricane Ida was the ninth named storm of the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season, the fourth hurricane, and the fifth named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this season. Ida was also the fourth hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since 2020, following Hurricanes’ Laura, Delta, and Zeta. Over two months remain in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. END The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.