Newark, California - April 29, 2019 RMS, the leading global risk modeling and data analytics firm, announced today the release of new views of earthquake risk in Taiwan and in six countries across Southeast Asia, as well as an update to its view of hurricane risk across the hurricane-impacted countries in the North Atlantic basin. The models will be delivered on version 18.1 of RiskLink and RiskBrowser, RMS’ industry-leading risk management software.
The model updates incorporate RMS’ latest methodologies and reflect the latest in RMS research on hazard, vulnerability and financial modeling enhancements.
The Latest View on Atlantic Hurricane Activity
The North Atlantic Hurricane models include updates to long-term and medium-term hurricane event rates, new historical event reconstructions from recent seasons, and vulnerability enhancements informed by new data and RMS building research. The release enables RMS to continue to comply with the hurricane standards of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, while providing the (re)insurance market with an expansive suite of modeling tools that reflect the most up-to-date view of the Atlantic hurricane risk landscape.
A Model Designed for Today’s Taiwan Earthquake Risk Market
The insurance market in Taiwan has changed significantly since RMS first released its earthquake model in 2001 following the 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi Earthquake. With this release, the RMS Taiwan Earthquake Model reflects the latest science on earthquakes and on building performance to best support risk management practices for this region of high seismic risk.
South East Asia Earthquake Models Reflect New Market and Scientific Insights
The countries of Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia are among the fastest growing economies in the world, with rapid development of the building stock and expansion of the exposure in the region. The version 18.1 Southeast Asia Earthquake models build on the enhancements made in version 17 in 2017, incorporating new and expanded market data, market feedback, and improved data sets. This comprehensive, new view of risk serves a wide variety of use cases ranging from location-level pricing and primary underwriting applications, through pricing of per risk facultative reinsurance, and management of exposure aggregations, to understanding portfolio-level tail risk across multiple countries.
Enhanced High-resolution Capabilities in the U.S.
In keeping with RMS’ commitment to ensure the highest quality and accuracy geocoding for its models, geocoding will be updated for all U.S. models in version 18.1. In addition, the amount of high-resolution building data has doubled for the U.S., providing users with the confidence that when they model a risk in version 18.1 they are getting the best view of the hazard at those locations.
Managing Director for Asia Pacific and Japan appointed
As a further sign of RMS’s commitment to the region, Andy Woodhouse has been appointed as Managing Director for Asia and Japan. Andy joins RMS from Temenos, the banking software firm, where he was Regional Services Director. Prior to that he was Head of Product and Business Development at Bloomberg, and Managing Director at Real Time Systems, a global financial technology firm. Other experience has included Managing Director at SunGard Global Services, Banking Industry Director at Oracle and Director of Financial Management Solutions at Peoplesoft. Andy will be based in Hong Kong, where he lives.
Neil Isford, Executive Vice President, RMS, said: “Asia Pacific is a critical growth area for RMS and our clients. This is reflected in our commitment to not only delivering and updating an increasing suite of models for the region, but also in the caliber of the staff we have working with clients. Andy has over 20 years of experience in successfully building teams across this region to sell and implement software-based solutions, and I know that his experience and enthusiasm will be of great benefit to all our Asia Pacific clients.”
Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, RMS said: “We have continued to build and develop our model offering in this important region over the past years as can be seen in the new models and model updates. Version 18.1 is a further proof point that the RMS model suite stays abreast of the latest science, methodologies and technology in risk analysis. RMS is committed to delivering the best quality models and science to the market and V18.1 delivers on this.”
Newark, CA – October 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Delta to be between US$2.0bn and US$3.5bn. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$200m and US$400m. U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Delta (US$ billions): Wind & Surge Inland Flood NFIP Total 1.7 - 2.8 0.1 - 0.3 0.2 - 0.4 2.0 - 3.5 This estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across the impacted states, including Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and estimates from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Delta’s hazards that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The RMS estimate includes a 15% reduction in insured onshore losses due to the cumulative impacts of Hurricane Laura, which damaged much of the same region six weeks earlier. “The overlapping nature of Delta and Laura will create a complicated claims management and loss attribution process for the industry. Using an innovative combination of high-resolution aerial imagery and machine-learning techniques, the modeling teams at RMS assessed the competing impacts of Hurricane Laura on Hurricane Delta losses. We determined that more than half of the impacted postal codes were also impacted by Laura, representing more than 90% of loss in this event. While Delta caused higher than expected damage to many structures due to pre-existing damage from Laura, reduced overall exposure-at-risk in the overlapping region after Laura means losses attributed to Delta will end up being lower than if Laura had never happened,” said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects most insured losses will be from residential lines. The estimate also includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) in the range of US$200 million to US$400 million. NFIP losses were derived using the RMS view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. In Mexico, RMS estimates insured losses from Delta to be less than US$500 million. The estimate reflects wind losses based on analysis of RMS post-landfall stochastic event tracks in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The estimate for Mexico includes property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, and industrial lines of business. Additionally, RMS estimates insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico to not exceed US$1.0bn from wind and wave-driven damages. Offshore losses are based on the October 2020 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database. “Unlike Laura, which impacted several deepwater oil and gas platforms earlier in the season, we expect offshore losses from Delta to be driven mainly by shallow water platforms. The storm shut in oil and gas production in the region up to levels not seen since Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike. However, Delta’s lower intensity and size while in the Gulf limited the wave heights and consequently, offshore losses are expected to be notably lower than those experienced in the 2005 and 2008 events,” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development. Delta made landfall near Creole, Louisiana on Friday, October 9, 2020 as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Delta produced sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Informed by a suite of real-time observational data sources, RMS HWind products estimated comparable winds at landfall. Delta's landfall location and intensity were well-represented by the HWind forecasting products more than 72 hours before the storm crossed into Louisiana. “As expected, Delta weakened from major hurricane status to a weaker Category 2 storm just before landfall due to a combination of conditions, including high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, both of which restrain a hurricane’s intensity. However, winds strong enough to cause damage expanded in width, increasing the number of coastal properties at risk. Fortunately, Delta rapidly weakened after landfall, which reduced the material wind and water-driven impacts across interior portions of the Gulf states,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development. Hurricane Delta was the twenty-fifth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the ninth hurricane, and the fifth U.S. landfalling hurricane of this very active season. Delta was a record-breaking tenth named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. so far in 2020, and a record-tying fourth named storm of 2020 to make landfall in Louisiana. Over six weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, officially ending on November 30. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modelled and non-modelled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
London and Tokyo – October 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, and Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., are pleased to announce that they are expanding and deepening their global commercial partnership through a new agreement. RMS models underlie Tokio Marine’s global view of natural catastrophe risk, and Tokio Marine entities have access to a range of RMS RiskLink® and HD™ models as well as RMS Risk Intelligence™ products. The goal of the partnership is to ensure that the highest quality, most accurate, best-science, data and technology-based views of risk across all perils and markets where Tokio Marine participates are leveraged to the benefit of Tokio Marine customers worldwide. Through the partnership, RMS models, data and applications, along with the RMS cloud platform, Risk Intelligence, may be leveraged by Tokio Marine entities globally. Tokio Marine has been a longstanding industry leader and partner with RMS, with the relationship spanning over 20 years. Tokio Marine partnered with RMS on the development of the Japan Earthquake and Japan Typhoon models, providing knowledge and insights to the benefit of the modelled views of those risks, the partnership, as well as the market at large. In addition to RMS RiskLink models, Tokio Marine has also licensed and is adopting the current suite of RMS high-definition (HD) models, which includes the Japan Typhoon and Flood HD Model, and the Japan Earthquake and Tsunami HD Model. Tokio Marine was an early adopter of RMS Risk Modeler™ and Exposure Manager™ solutions and is working towards adoption of the latest version, Risk Modeler 2.0, as it deploys new HD models. All RMS RiskLink models, together with HD models, are deployed on cloud-based Risk Modeler as of the September 30, 2020 release, along with portfolio and account modelling and analytics. Kenji Okada, Group Chief Risk Officer, Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. said: “RMS has been an important strategic partner for many years and has consistently demonstrated its commitment to investing in better science and technology for the insurance industry. We look forward to continuing and deepening this partnership over the years to come.” Karen White, Chief Executive Officer of RMS, said: “Tokio Marine has been a global market leader and valued partner to RMS throughout our longstanding relationship. The global risk market is growing more complex and inter-connected. As we together tackle existing as well as increasing risks such as climate change and extreme weather events, systemic risks, clash risks, cyber, pandemic and infectious disease risks and other perils, meaningful collaboration and partnerships, coupled with leading edge science and technology, are vital. We look forward to continuing our work with Tokio to ensure the deepest insights and views of risks, to optimize business outcomes and greater global resiliency.”