LONDON – November 10, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading risk modeling and solutions company, estimates that insured losses from Windstorm Ciarán, also known as Emir, will likely fall between 0.9 billion Euro and 1.5 billion Euro (US$1.0–US$1.6 billion).
France accounts for the majority of the loss. The storm also affected Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands, the Netherlands, and Germany between November 1-2, 2023.
This loss estimate is based on wind hazard reconstructions using the recently released Moody’s RMS® Europe Windstorm HD Models, and includes damage to property, automobiles, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but excludes losses arising from infrastructure damage, which are not expected to be material.
The loss estimates also consider minor impacts from non-modeled sources of loss such as coastal and inland flooding, and damage to forestry, ports, and watercraft.
Post-event loss amplification due to material and labor shortages – which can drive up replacement costs, is expected to be minor, even if inflationary trends are prevalent in the countries worst affected by this event.
Damages from Storm Domingos, named by Spain’s state meteorological agency AEMET that impacted Central-West France in the days following Ciarán, are not included in this estimate.
Giovanni Leoncini, Senior Product Manager for Europe Windstorm Models at Moody’s RMS, said: “Windstorm Ciaràn can be thought of as a weaker sibling of 87J, the Great Storm of 1987, which severely affected the United Kingdom and Northwest France in October 1987."
"Even with lower gust speeds and a more limited extent compared to 87J, losses will still be significant for France. Despite the recent period of windstorm activity, the destruction now brought by Ciaràn reminds us of the importance of extratropical cyclones for the (re)insurance industry.”
The technology and data used in providing this information are based on scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and the encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
MOODY’S RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL MOODY’S RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
Estimates reflect insured wind, storm surge, and inland flooding impacts for the U.S. Additionally, Moody’s RMS estimates losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) could be in the range of US$500 million.