Log In
Access all customer product support, event response, and training in one place
LifeRisks PortalFind modeling tools based on best practice actuarial techniques and medical science
Miu PortalExplore analytics and risk insights for the alternative capital market
NEWARK, CA – January 25, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, estimates total U.S. economic losses from the recent California flooding at US$5-7 billion. This estimate reflects inland flood impacts for the U.S. and includes damage to infrastructure. The insured losses are anticipated to be between US$0.5-1.5 billion, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the private flood market.
The overall economic loss estimate is based on an event reconstruction using the Moody’s RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model and reflects property damage, contents, and business interruption, across residential, commercial, industrial, automobile and infrastructure assets.
A series of extratropical cyclones starting December 26, 2022, impacted the West Coast of the U.S, which resulted in heavy rainfall, overtopped rivers, flash floods, levee breaches, mudslides, fallen trees, debris flow, and heavy snow at high altitudes, together with some wind damage.
The rainfall associated with these extratropical cyclones was exacerbated by a band of high atmospheric water vapor, also known as an ‘atmospheric river’.
The rainfall intensity in California was so extreme that several locations in central California set new three-week rainfall records and certain locations received their annual average rainfall totals in less than one month.
This led to widespread flash floods and river overtopping, for example, water depths in the San Lorenzo River upstream of Santa Cruz rose by more than 16 feet (4.87 meters) in less than eight hours. This was the highest recorded water depth for the San Lorenzo River since records began some 85 years ago.
Infrastructure damage, which is accounted for within the economic loss estimates, was extensive. State highways and local roads bore the brunt of the damage due to a combination of flooding and mudslides. Trees previously stressed by dry conditions were uprooted due to high water velocities, saturated soils and heavy winds, which also caused damage to power networks, as well as to cars and properties.
The continuous rainfall and compound impacts from riverine-groundwater-coastal interactions also resulted in prolonged flooding for certain urban coastal areas of California.
Furthermore, the continuous drought preceding these extratropical cyclones events adds an extra dimension of complexity for reservoir operators and residents. It is important to highlight that 2022 was the second driest year in over 128 years for certain areas (e.g., Santa Cruz) and was categorized under ‘extreme drought’ according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
Although there has been a significant increase in the water levels of major reservoirs and snowpack, it remains unlikely that California is out of the drought, especially when it comes to aquifer replenishment, given the last three years of extreme drought and excessive groundwater withdrawals.
These storms generated high-intensity rainfall resulting in a high proportion of rainfall running off into the ocean, whereas aquifers generally recharge gradually from less intense rainfall systems and snow melt.
“To put this event in historical perspective with the 1862 ARkStorm, although some impacted areas are similar, the ARkStorm produced much more severe precipitation, for example, 35 inches (88.9 centimeters) of precipitation in San Francisco compared to ~ 15 inches (38 centimeters) from this event. Another important mitigating factor for this event is the presence of flood defenses, which were mostly absent in 1862,” said Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, Moody’s RMS.
A relatively small proportion of the economic damage is expected to be covered by insurance. The number of households in California with flood insurance stands at less than two percent – a figure that has been steadily declining. As of August 2022, there were only 193,281 residential National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies in place, representing a decline of around five percent as compared to 2021.
These low flood insurance take-up rates are attributed to the fact that only homeowners holding a government-backed loan who live in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) are mandated to obtain a flood insurance policy. But these SFHA boundary ‘flood zones’ do not always reflect the current flood risk, are backward-looking, and are infrequently revised.
Other factors impacting flood insurance take-up rates include, but are not limited to, affordability, the misconception that flood is covered under a standard homeowners’ policy, and a lack of understanding of the associated incurred cost from flooding.
Firas Saleh, Director, Product Management, Moody’s RMS, concluded: “Extreme drought leads to soil compaction which means less infiltration and more runoff, hence less aquifer recharge and higher risk of flooding. Nowhere is safe from flooding in California today. If we’ve learned anything from this extreme rainfall and subsequent damage, it’s that even perceived low-risk flood zones are still flood zones. If it rains, it can overflow.”
NEWARK, CA – June 6, 2023 – Moody’s RMS, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced that version 23 of the Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models was approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 1, 2023, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to version 23 hurricane models available on RiskLink® and the Risk Modeler™ application on the Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™. Informed by new industry loss and claims data, research, and insights from recent seasons, the updated version 23 hurricane models allow Moody’s RMS to continue to provide the (re)insurance market with the most comprehensive view of the hurricane risk landscape. The models include new updated data and learnings from major events over the last two years: Nearly USD $80 billion in new industry loss data, including Hurricane Ida (2021) and Hurricane Ian (2022) More than USD $6.5 billion in new detailed claims data, including more than USD $3 billion in new residential claims data outside of Florida, more than USD $2 billion in new U.S. commercial claims, and more than USD $1 billion in data from Puerto Rico Insights into structure and roof performance from field reconnaissance after recent events, including hurricanes Irma (2017), Michael (2018), and Ian (2022) Matthew Nielsen, senior director, regulatory affairs, Moody’s RMS, said: “We are proud to be the first risk modeler to gain FCHLPM approval under the newest standards. Obtaining FCHLPM certification underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models, based on industry-leading science, data, methods, engineering, and software.” The new version 23 will include updates to existing models for core perils and for climate change views and includes enhancements to geocoding, model analysis flexibility, data framework, security, and more. As Moody’s RMS has done in previous years, version 23 models and associated expanded functionalities will be released simultaneously for both on-premises and hosted clients using RiskLink® and RiskBrowser, and applicable updates will be applied to all Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ applications, including Risk Modeler™, ExposureIQ™, TreatyIQ™, UnderwriteIQ™, and the Location Intelligence API. With this new release, the Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ will now simultaneously support five model versions: 18, 18.1, 21, 22, and 23. Some key updates in version 23 include: Moody's RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models (including Climate Change Model) Geocoding updates in 37 countries including new 'Points of Interest' resolution U.S. and Caribbean Industry Exposure Databases and Industry Loss Curves Global Post-Loss Amplification (PLA) Scale Factor for Detailed Loss Model (DLM) analyses Moody's RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model v1.2 update Improvements in security, password rotations, and environment pre-requisites Robust View of Tropical Cyclone Risk: North Atlantic Hurricane Models “The version 23 release will ensure that Moody’s RMS continues to provide the market with a suite of North Atlantic hurricane modeling tools, analytics, and data solutions that reflect the most mature, robust modeling view of the dynamic and evolving hurricane risk landscape,” said Jeff Waters, staff product manager, Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. “These model updates are informed by a combination of new hurricane activity and loss data since version 21, analysis of billions of dollars in new detailed claims data, new building code information, and new Moody’s RMS and external research.” The release includes the following updates to the North Atlantic Hurricane Models: Revised long-term event rates and medium-term rates across the entire North Atlantic Basin Hazard updates, including a newer vintage of underlying land use-land cover data in Florida New and updated historical event reconstructions Significant vulnerability enhancements to residential and non-residential lines throughout the North Atlantic Basin – notably the elimination of the alternative vulnerability for Florida residential lines that were present in version 21 Geocoding revisions Updates to specialty lines, including Industrial Facilities Model Significant enhancements to the building inventory database Updated post-event loss amplification (PLA) factors Additionally, Moody’s RMS is introducing new software functionality allowing users to better reflect dynamic market conditions or non-modeled sources of loss directly within the model framework. Version 23 also adds functionality that is exclusive to the North Atlantic Hurricane Models, which allows users to reflect non-modeled sources of loss by coverage type. Such factors can have a significant impact on industry and client losses, from assignment of benefits, construction cost inflation, contingent business interruption because of widespread power outages or infrastructure damage, litigation, excessive tree loss/damage, or coverage leakage from inland flooding. The impact of each factor can vary greatly by coverage type. The FCHLPM certification of version 23 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models will be valid until November 1, 2025. Version 23 will be generally available on June 14, 2023, simultaneously on both RiskLink® and Risk Modeler™. Learn more about the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models here.
LONDON – MAY 25, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, is announcing that risk models from Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), Fathom, and JBA Risk Management (JBA) are all to be made available as a technology preview on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ (IRP), following the integration of the IRP into the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) Risk Modelling for Catastrophes (NRMC) service. This announcement builds on an earlier Moody’s RMS announcement on enhancing the IRP by integrating the NRMC service for Oasis Loss Modelling Framework-based risk models. When the solution is fully developed, and subject to the necessary agreements being put in place between Moody's RMS and its partners for the integration, customers who subscribe to the solution will be able to use Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform applications such as Risk Modeler™, UnderwriteIQ™, and TreatyIQ™ for unified execution of Moody’s RMS models, as well as ARA, Fathom, and JBA Risk Management models, running on the Nasdaq modeling service based on the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework (LMF), and other custom models and modeling engines. George Freimarck, Business Leader for Catastrophe Models at ARA, said: “North Atlantic hurricane remains the single largest region-peril risk for most property insurers. The ability to directly incorporate and blend results from multiple credible hurricane models on a single platform will help clients understand and manage that risk. The integration of ARA models into the IRP opens a wide range of options and possibilities for risk professionals and clients while removing burdensome technology integration.” Dr. Andrew Smith, Co-Founder, and Chief Operations Officer at Fathom, said: “We welcome the ecosystem innovation that Moody’s RMS, working with Nasdaq, is bringing to the risk market, model users, and modelers. We believe it will be incredibly attractive for customers to access multiple views of risk through the same interface, so we were excited when Moody’s RMS approached Fathom to help test the modeling engine’s capabilities and for our flood model to become one of the first to be integrated into the IRP." "The standardizing and simplifying of multi-vendor exposure and results data offers greater flexibility and efficiencies for risk professionals. All model users, and all those transacting in risk, will gain from friction-free model interoperability and unification of risk standards that this will deliver.” Jane Toothill, Managing Director at JBA Risk Management, said: “We are excited to see the integration of Moody’s IRP into Nasdaq’s NRMC as it means our suite of global flood models will be more easily accessible to mutual clients. The ability to run multiple models on the same platform will provide many benefits to the insurance and risk industries." "Greater modeling flexibility, improved efficiencies, and streamlined costs of ownership will all make significant differences, and by helping clients build reliance and promote mitigation measures, insurers can better prepare themselves and their clients against potentially catastrophic events.” Cihan Biyikoglu, Executive Vice President - Product, at Moody’s RMS, said: “With this initiative, we are hoping to create more opportunities for innovation in the global risk market, and we are delighted to be working with ARA, Fathom, and JBA. Moody’s RMS recognizes that customers often want to incorporate multiple models for a multitude of reasons, including hedging model risk and creating their own view of risk for a differentiated risk strategy." "We are making this much easier for our clients by allowing them to consolidate their modeling systems into a single unified experience and limiting the burden of complex data conversion between different exposure and loss data formats." "This will help them to free up IT budgets dedicated to maintaining multiple modeling environments, as well as allowing their catastrophe modelers better insights for risk selection, pricing, and transfer decisions. We are also working with additional model vendors and look forward to further announcements as this initiative continues to accelerate.” To learn more about third-party modeling on the Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform, please visit rms.com. END About Moody’s RMS Moody’s RMS shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector, with Moody’s RMS models underlying the nearly $2 trillion USD Property and Casualty industry. Moody’s RMS empowers organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics. Moody’s RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry and continues to lead in innovation, unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Organizations can address the risks of tomorrow with the Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence. Further supporting the industry’s transition to modern risk management, in 2020, Moody’s RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems. In 2021, Moody’s Corporation acquired Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and as part of Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s RMS serves the P&C insurance industry as the leading provider of expertise, science, and technology in integrated risk. A trusted solutions partner, Moody’s RMS enables effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management. Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter. ©2023 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its affiliates and licensors (“Moody’s RMS”). All rights reserved. All names, logos, and icons identifying Moody’s RMS and/or its products and services are trademarks of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its licensors or affiliates. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Risk Management Solutions, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency. About ARA Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) was founded in 1979, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to offer science and engineering research to solve problems of national importance. ARA delivers leading-edge products and innovative solutions for national defense, energy, homeland security, aerospace, healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, and insurance. ARA’s wind engineering expertise and its state-of-the-art hurricane model, HurLoss®, provide an independent and highly respected view of hurricane risk to structural engineers, emergency managers, energy producers, and property insurers. With over 1,700 employee-owners at locations in the U.S. and Canada, ARA offers a broad range of technical expertise in defense technologies, civil engineering, computer software and simulation, systems analysis, biomedical engineering, environmental technologies, and blast testing and measurement. For more information, visit https://ara.com About Fathom Fathom gives risk management professionals the most scientifically robust tools and intelligence for understanding the climate’s impact on water risk. By publishing cutting-edge, peer-reviewed academic research and applying it to real-world challenges, Fathom powers better decision-making for (re)insurance, financial markets, corporate risk, civil engineering, disaster response, and government. Fathom’s dedicated team of scientists harness their passion for innovation and the environment to develop rigorous catastrophe models and comprehensive mapping and geospatial data that make a real-world difference to customers and communities worldwide. For more information visit https://www.fathom.global About JBA Risk Management JBA Risk Management is the global leader in flood risk science. Offering best-in-class flood maps, models, analytics, and consultancy services to help users understand flood risk today and in the future, JBA works with some of the world’s largest organizations in the insurance and financial sectors, including mortgage providers, property search companies, governments, the international banking community, and NGOs. With a collaborative team of expert scientists, hydrologists, mathematicians, and engineers, JBA uses pioneering science to stay at the forefront of flood modeling innovation. Headquartered in the U.K. with offices in Asia Pacific, the U.S. and Europe, JBA Risk Management is part of the JBA Group, which was founded in 1995. For more information, visit https://jbarisk.com
