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Insurance Solutions

Formerly Moody’s RMS

LONDON – February 25, 2022 RMS®, a world leading risk modeling and solutions company, estimates that insured losses from Windstorms Dudley and Eunice, also known respectively as Ylenia and Zeynep, will likely fall between 3.0 and 4.5 billion Euro (US$3.4 and US$5.1 billion). Losses in Germany will likely account for around 40 percent of the total loss, followed by the Netherlands at around 20 percent, and the United Kingdom at around 15 percent. The storms also affected Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia between February 16-19, 2022.

RMS analysis suggests that Eunice is expected to contribute between 2.5 and 3.5 billion Euro (US$2.8 and US$4.0 billion) to the overall insured loss total. This estimate would rank Eunice as the most damaging European windstorm event since Kyrill in 2007.

These wind-only loss estimates are based on hazard reconstructions using the version 15.0 RMS Europe Windstorm Models, and include damage to property, automobiles, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but exclude losses from damage to infrastructure, which are expected not to be material. Losses caused by storm surge and inland flooding are not included in these estimates, as these are not expected to be material for Dudley and Eunice. Some flooding has occurred subsequently in Europe resulting from Windstorm Franklin between February 20-22, 2022.

The loss estimates consider unique aspects of these events, including market dynamics and economic effects from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which will likely act to increase losses beyond typical expectations. This includes losses to large facilities, such as power plants and stadiums, and uncertainty in replacement costs, driven by material prices and shortages. The estimates also consider a marginal amount of post-event loss amplification and the possibility of “claims leakage,” the payment for damage from other events under a single occurrence, given that several events occurred in close succession. This includes Storm Franklin, which impacted Europe to a smaller degree between February 20-22, 2022 but its damage may be reimbursed under Dudley or Eunice claims.

Michèle Lai, senior product manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS, said: “Windstorm Eunice will likely be the costliest European windstorm of the last 15 years, following the path of Kyrill (2007), however, it will end up causing less damage in Germany than its ‘big brother.’ Although the last two decades have mostly spared us from history-making windstorms like Daria (1990) or Lothar (1999), Windstorms Dudley and Eunice remind us how destructive these events can be and highlight the importance of storm clustering, the close succession of multiple storms following similar trajectories, in Europe.”

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About Moody's RMS

Moody’s RMS shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector, with Moody’s RMS models underlying the nearly $2 trillion USD Property & Casualty industry. Moody’s RMS empowers organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

Moody’s RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation, unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Organizations can address the risks of tomorrow with the Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence.

Further supporting the industry’s transition to modern risk management, in 2020, Moody’s RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems.

In 2021, Moody’s Corporation acquired Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and as part of Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s RMS serves the P&C insurance industry as the leading provider of expertise, science, and technology in integrated risk. A trusted solutions partner, Moody’s RMS enables effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

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RMS is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Haggie Partners

PR Lead, Americas
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