NEWARK, CA – September 23, 2021 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that the total U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Nicholas to be between US$1.1 and US$2.2 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Nicholas made landfall on September 14, 2021 near Sargent Beach, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km/h). The storm brought hurricane-force winds, prolonged heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast, including many areas in southern Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida, as well as Hurricanes’ Laura and Delta (2020).
Total insured loss estimates for Hurricane Nicholas (US$ billions):
|Wind + Surge||Private Inland Flood||NFIP||Total|
|0.7 – 1.4||0.2 – 0.3||0.2 – 0.5||1.1 – 2.2|
RMS estimates US$700 million to US$1.4 billion in privately insured wind and storm surge losses based on analysis of ensemble footprints in Version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Nicholas’ hazard that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. The precipitation-induced inland flooding losses were generated using footprints from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
RMS modelers developed and validated the wind, storm surge, and inland flood reconstructions and corresponding loss estimates using publicly available observations, including wind stations, rivers water level gauge data, and web reconnaissance.
“A notable impact from this event is the rainfalls, especially in Louisiana, where many towns and cities are still in the early stages of recovery after Hurricane Ida. RMS event response teams estimate roughly 40 percent of postal codes in Louisiana that were impacted by flooding in Nicholas were also impacted by flooding from Ida a few weeks earlier. We expect the overlapping nature of these two storms to further amplify losses, including the risk of rainfall infiltration, and to prolong the claims settlement process,” says Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.
The estimate also includes US$200 – $500 million in losses for NFIP in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico region. NFIP losses were derived using RMS’ view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, Version 21 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model.
Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and considers sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA). RMS expects the majority of wind and storm surge losses to come from Texas, and the majority of the NFIP and insured flood losses to come from Louisiana.
Hurricane Nicholas was the fourteenth named storm of the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season and the sixth hurricane. It was the second hurricane to make landfall this season.
RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.
The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
NEWARK, CA – 19 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching new global views for acute and chronic perils and their climate change impact. RMS already offers a range of regional peril and climate change models, which support detailed acute physical loss modeling products, as well as data products covering hazard and risk scores, and loss costs for individual locations, across multiple time horizons. RMS climate change models and data products have been welcomed by the market, and allow users to stress test portfolio management, risk mitigation, and adaption strategies. The newly announced global views significantly extend RMS’s peril and climate change impact coverage to provide fully correlated global views of risk, and include event frequency and severity, and analysis for current baseline and future climate views. With these new global views, RMS not only delivers a view of risk for acute peril-specific risks, but also chronic risks such as drought, heat stress, water stress, and sea-level rise. This global peril coverage will enhance RMS’s applications on the Intelligent Risk Platform™ with the Risk Modeler™, ExposureIQ™, TreatyIQ™, SiteIQ™, and UnderwriteIQ™ applications delivering global insights in the future. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, said: “We are continuing to see growing demand for risk insights on acute and chronic perils and climate change, from investors and corporations across many industries such as banking, commercial real estate, and insurance. The effects of these risks will unfold over many years and will have many direct and indirect implications for both industry and society. We firmly believe that long-term strategies and decision making can only benefit from detailed and analytical insight into hazard and risk impacts for present and future climates.”
NEWARK, CA – 18 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, today announces it will be releasing four new High Definition™ (HD) models, including Europe Windstorm, North America Winterstorm (WT), North America Severe Convective Storm (SCS), and Terrorism. RMS HD Models represent the next generation of risk modeling, delivering deeper analysis and granularity from Moody's. The HD probabilistic models incorporate a high-fidelity, simulation-based framework for modeling event frequency and severity, to provide a major step forward in the quality of catastrophe risk quantification. The framework allows for event footprints to be represented more realistically across larger event sets. The new RMS Europe Windstorm HD Model further enhances the current model and will cover 17 countries, adding Finland and Lichtenstein. The HD model includes a climate variability view and has expanded storm surge analytics to include the U.K., Ireland, France, and Belgium. Storm clustering will be modeled natively within the HD framework, together with an option to run the model without clustering. Industrial facilities, builders’ risk, and marine cargo will also all be covered. With the new model RMS will be able to offer a complete High-Definition solution for all atmospheric climate perils across Europe including Europe SCS HD Model, Europe Windstorm HD Model - and the Europe Flood HD Model, which was particularly relevant during the Berndt flooding in 2021. The exceptionally high insured losses from the U.S. severe winter weather event of February 2021 placed the winter storm peril in sharp focus. Both the RMS North America Winterstorm and RMS North America SCS HD Models benefit from a simulation-based framework that better represents the time-dependent nature of SCS/WT event frequency and hazard. This includes event clustering, seasonality, and the representation of cumulative hazard such as multi-day SCS outbreaks, or the cumulative snow buildup on a building due to multiple snowfalls. RMS launched its market-leading Terrorism Model in 2002, to help firms better manage exposed risks and quantify losses and casualties due to macro terrorism. As part of the suite of capabilities Moody's provides clients, the new RMS Terrorism HD Model offers increased transparency in exceedance probability (EP) generation, with outputs and analysis processes consistent with other RMS HD models. Workflow improvements include expanded financial model capabilities, multi-region selections, property and workers compensation in a single analysis, and introduces selectable causes of loss: conventional, fire only, or chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN). The planned general availability for the RMS Terrorism HD Model will be in 2022, Europe Windstorm HD Model in 2023, and North America Winterstorm and North America Severe Convective Storm in 2024. Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, Model Production Management, RMS, said: “The RMS High Definition Models are delivering a step-change in risk analysis across the insurance industry. All the technological capabilities within the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ support the RMS HD model enhancements for clients. These model announcements build on Moody’s continued commitment to bringing reliable and precise analytics to the modelers, underwriters, the C-suite, and across the industry. RMS has always invested in leading science and technology to ensure that clients have some of the best information available to help them with their risk decisions.”
NEWARK, CA – 17 May, 2022 – RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, announces it will be launching a new application, UnderwriteIQ™, hosted on the cloud-based RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™. UnderwriteIQ enables underwriters to have greater control of risks by bringing hazard, exposure, and loss data together in the underwriting process at the point of decision – all based on RMS model science and data. The new application will allow underwriters to price with confidence, enable consistent risk decisions, and improve operational efficiency. The application is hosted on the modular and unified RMS Intelligent Risk Platform (IRP). The platform provides proprietary and tertiary data analytics to rapidly generate high-resolution risk insights via applications that meet underwriting and portfolio management needs. Moe Khosravy, Executive Vice President, Software and Platform, RMS, said: “The growth in adoption of the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has been phenomenal. A substantial number of clients are benefiting from the secure cloud-based platform that provides superior advanced analytics through a single holistic enterprise risk management system, without the hardware and software maintenance required for on-premise offerings. IRP easily integrates into existing systems and its modular design allows users to license and use only the required applications or APIs.” UnderwriteIQ is the latest addition to the RMS IQ application suite, which also includes TreatyIQ™ and ExposureIQ™. The TreatyIQ application allows users to rapidly design and analyze both simple and complex treaty program structures, as well as import and leverage any modeled loss data, adapted to a user’s view of risk. An intuitive, underwriter-centric user experience supports customized pricing and capital metrics and can display rapid roll-up results, with analytics on aggregate positions and the performance of risk capital. ExposureIQ allows users to manage both reinsurance and insurance accumulations within one application, building structures that represent their business hierarchies in an intuitive way. The application also provides near real-time catastrophe event visualization using a powerful mapping module that directly integrates RMS Event Response and RMS HWind data. ExposureIQ makes business-wide exposure management faster and more accurate, allowing for easy identification of the key drivers of accumulations and portfolio trends, and analysis of deterministic losses across any region in the world. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS, concluded: “The RMS Intelligent Risk Platform has gone from strength to strength since it was launched in 2018, as can be seen by its adoption across the insurance market. Powered by RMS models, science, and technology, UnderwriteIQ is a welcome addition to the existing IQ applications suite, delivering business value, end-to-end consistency, and an improved client experience. RMS plans to always continue to invest in and deliver the technology, science, and solutions that help our clients make better risk decisions.”