NEWARK, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20.
RMS insured losses represent estimates from major wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado at December 1, 2020:
Region Insured Losses (USD $ bn) as of 1 December, 2020
|Northern California||Oregon & Washington||Colorado|
|5.0 - 9.0||1.0 - 3.0||Up to 1.0|
The RMS estimate includes losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI), and additional living expenses (ALE) across residential, commercial, and industrial lines. Smoke and evacuation are expected to be significant contributors to losses for the wildfires this season, contributing about 20 percent of losses in California and Colorado and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington. The estimate also accounts for notable post-event loss amplification (PLA) from property damage (25 to 30 percent) and business interruption/ALE (up to 100 percent or greater).
The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the U.S. Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Model, part of the North America Wildfire HD Model suite, released in February, 2019. The model covers the entire contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports from federal and respective state agencies for the Oregon, Washington, and Colorado fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database.
Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “2020 represents the most destructive fire season on record, in terms of burn area in California. Since August, 69 major fires that exceeded 1,000 burned acres each, have burned so far. Five of the six largest ever California wildfires have occurred in 2020, with over 4.4 million acres burned in total to date. While fires earlier in the season were dominated by ignitions sparked by the intense lightning storm in August, extreme wind-driven fires dominated the last few months. A similar phenomenon resulted in record-breaking fires in Oregon as well this season, with over 20 major fires driven by extreme winds, burning more than 1.2 million acres so far. In October, Colorado experienced its three largest destructive fires with more than 24 major fires burning 850,000 acres in total.
Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development said: “This wildfire season reaffirms the growing catastrophic nature of this peril. Wildfire risk is clearly evolving, not only in California, but also in other states, as we observed in Oregon and Colorado. While changing climate patterns have significantly influenced the record-breaking fires this season, several other factors also profoundly affected the ignition potential and expected losses from these events in different ways. Most notable amongst them are the Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) measures undertaken by utilities, preparedness and response of firefighters in Northern California despite COVID-19 challenges, and recent legislative actions governing wildfire claims settlement such as the California Senate Bill 872. RMS is currently engaged with various stakeholders in evaluating these factors and understanding their impact on the emerging risk profile of this peril as part of its wildfire modeling agenda.”
The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
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LONDON – 26 August, 2022 – AXA Climate, an entity of the AXA Group specializing in climate change adaptation, will include HWind analytics from RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, as a trigger metric for its relevant parametric insurance policies. HWind produces real-time data sets for tropical cyclone events, allowing quick evaluation of hurricane trigger/payout conditions, which enables parametric policyholders to gain rapid access to capital following impactful events. RMS HWind solutions offer comprehensive coverage over the Western North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins. Using RMS HWind helps AXA Climate to be fully flexible as to how and where they structure parametric policies, allowing AXA Climate to reassure their clients that they will quickly receive the protection they paid for when damaging winds are present. Amaury Dufetel, Head of Insurance, AXA Climate, said: “As an Engaged Climate Insurer, we believe the preciseness of sophisticated real-time data is essential to improve the use and uptake of parametric insurance solutions. Data coming from independent reputable organizations like RMS HWind solutions, developed over more than 25 years by one of the world’s leading hurricane observation researchers, will allow us to structure innovative parametric covers and bring to our clients the best tailormade Tropical Cyclone coverage both in terms of price and claim settlement.” Charlotte Acton, Senior Director, RMS, added: “By working closely with AXA Climate, we have been able to help an important client develop innovative products that offer a competitive advantage and can help enable growth into new markets. Parametric insurance is another example of how the insurance industry can help build resilience into economies, which in turn helps reduce the protection gap. RMS remains committed to supporting insurance innovation, in our products, for our clients, and for their end users.” About AXA Climate AXA Climate is a Committed Climate Insurer: We integrate best-in-class climate expertise and data in all our products. We believe that from this decade onwards, only private and public actors committed to a sustainable transition will be insurable. Our mission is to reinvent the insurance business to support those engaged in sustainable transitions. We have developed a set of business lines around climate change: parametric insurance against climate risks, climate and nature consulting services, financing and climate training to engage all employees. We are a team of over 150 collaborators spread across the 5 continents, leveraging the entire AXA ecosystem. Visit https://www.climate.axa/ to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn.
NEWARK, CA – 15 August, 2022 – Andrew Hare has been appointed Managing Director, Asia-Pacific at RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and global leader in risk modeling and solutions. Andrew will be responsible for integrating and leading the strategy and execution across the combined RMS and Moody’s Analytics Insurance Vertical, as well as overseeing client relationships and business development in the region. He will be based in Singapore and will report to Michael Steel, General Manager at RMS, and Wael Jadallah, Moody’s Analytics Head of APAC and the Middle East. Andrew has almost 25 years of experience and was most recently Managing Director and Head of Aon Inpoint (Aon's insurance advisory business) for Asia. He was previously a Managing Director responsible for Strategy and Growth at Aon Reinsurance Solutions across Asia-Pacific. During his 17-year career with Aon, Andrew worked extensively with insurers and reinsurers in the U.K., Europe, Bermuda, and North America before moving to Singapore in 2013. Andrew began his career with Accenture after majoring in Business Management at Oxford Brookes University. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS said: "Andrew brings extensive experience in the insurance industry, as well as a thorough understanding of the diverse risk requirements in Asia-Pacific, where he has built industry-leading teams and capabilities that have delivered deep insights and added value to insurers and reinsurers. We are delighted to welcome Andrew and look forward to the positive impact he will have on RMS and Moody's Analytics clients. We have always placed a high value on the Asia-Pacific region, and Andrew's appointment demonstrates our continued commitment to providing leading insight, data, and analytics to our clients, communities, and the industry." Wael Jadallah, General Manager Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Moody's Analytics, highlighted: “We are delighted to have Andrew join as Managing Director and head of our Insurance practice in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Andrew is well known and respected by an extensive network within the insurance industry globally. He brings a wealth of experience and his appointment is a testimony of Moody’s Analytics’ investment in our regions, as we continue to invest in our commitment to add value to our clients’ evolving needs.” Andrew Hare, Managing Director, Asia-Pacific, RMS added: “Climate change and natural catastrophes, such as flood, fire, earthquake, and typhoon, continue to wreak havoc on the Asia-Pacific region. Following the devastating effects of the COVID-19 outbreak as well as chronic supply chain disruptions, heightened cyberattacks, social and economic inflation, and global geopolitical uncertainty, many economies and communities in the region are continuing their long road to recovery. RMS, with the combination of capabilities with Moody’s Analytics, is uniquely positioned to provide a deep understanding of the region’s evolving risk profile and increase confidence in risk management and selection. I am thrilled to join the team to deliver an integrated risk assessment strategy that will help clients and communities decode risk and unlock opportunity."
LONDON – 3 August, 2022 – Covenant Underwriters, the e-commerce insurance program administrator, is using Location Intelligence API from RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, to provide real-time premium indications to its clients during the quotation process. RMS Location Intelligence API offers market-leading, high-resolution, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics delivered directly into underwriting workflows. Clients using Location Intelligence API benefit from trusted model data to help customize pricing for each policy, helping avoid adverse selection and to provide greater opportunities for dynamic pricing. Location Intelligence API is available in multiple countries and covers key modeled perils like hurricane, flood, earthquake, wildfire, convective storm, and more. Daniel Murray, Chief Underwriter at Covenant Underwriters, said: “Covenant has developed an API-powered rating algorithm that leverages big data and artificial intelligence to produce an instant price indication for any given address. Using an application programming interface (API) to integrate RMS knowledge and insight directly into the Covenant platform, enables our retail brokers to craft the winning terms during the quote process.” Marisa Ruscitto, Managing Director, RMS, said: “The RMS Location Intelligence API enables users to benefit from a competitive advantage with real-time, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics. Using these metrics not only helps with risk selection but also pricing, screening, and referrals. As underwriting workflows automate rapidly, an increasing number of industry leaders are adopting real-time underwriting processes and decision-making capability to quickly match risk to capital, and to better support their clients and their business.” About Covenant Underwriters Based in Houston, Texas, Covenant Underwriters develops and administers e-commerce insurance programs that leverage custom forms, cutting-edge technology, and niche underwriting to make specialty insurance easy for retail brokers. Current niche programs include commercial package policies for limited-service hotels and convenience stores with gas stations. Visit Covenant Underwriters for more information.