Newark, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20.
RMS insured losses represent estimates from major wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado at December 1, 2020:
Region Insured Losses (USD $ bn) as of 1 December, 2020
|Northern California||Oregon and Washington||Colorado|
|5.0 - 9.0||1.0 - 3.0||Up to 1.0|
The RMS estimate includes losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI), and additional living expenses (ALE) across residential, commercial, and industrial lines. Smoke and evacuation are expected to be significant contributors to losses for the wildfires this season, contributing about 20 percent of losses in California and Colorado and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington. The estimate also accounts for notable post-event loss amplification (PLA) from property damage (25 to 30 percent) and business interruption/ALE (up to 100 percent or greater).
The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the U.S. Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Model, part of the North America Wildfire HD Model suite, released in February, 2019. The model covers the entire contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports from federal and respective state agencies for the Oregon, Washington, and Colorado fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database.
Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “2020 represents the most destructive fire season on record, in terms of burn area in California. Since August, 69 major fires that exceeded 1,000 burned acres each, have burned so far. Five of the six largest ever California wildfires have occurred in 2020, with over 4.4 million acres burned in total to date. While fires earlier in the season were dominated by ignitions sparked by the intense lightning storm in August, extreme wind-driven fires dominated the last few months. A similar phenomenon resulted in record-breaking fires in Oregon as well this season, with over 20 major fires driven by extreme winds, burning more than 1.2 million acres so far. In October, Colorado experienced its three largest destructive fires with more than 24 major fires burning 850,000 acres in total.
Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development said: “This wildfire season reaffirms the growing catastrophic nature of this peril. Wildfire risk is clearly evolving, not only in California, but also in other states, as we observed in Oregon and Colorado. While changing climate patterns have significantly influenced the record-breaking fires this season, several other factors also profoundly affected the ignition potential and expected losses from these events in different ways. Most notable amongst them are the Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) measures undertaken by utilities, preparedness and response of firefighters in Northern California despite COVID-19 challenges, and recent legislative actions governing wildfire claims settlement such as the California Senate Bill 872. RMS is currently engaged with various stakeholders in evaluating these factors and understanding their impact on the emerging risk profile of this peril as part of its wildfire modeling agenda.”
The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
NEWARK, Calif. – June 30, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, and the Saudi Reinsurance Company (Saudi Re) announce a new agreement, with Saudi Re adopting RMS models and services for a more comprehensive view across the Asian market. The agreement will enable Saudi Re to enhance risk analysis across multiple geographies including India, China, and the Philippines. Saudi Re continues to grow its activities and client base in the Asian market, and is further enhancing its ‘in-house’ capability of assessing risks particularly in this expanding region. “Our clients know and expect the best insights, service and quality from Saudi Re,” said Fahad Al-Hesni, MD-CEO at Saudi Re. “The new agreement with RMS will help ensure the continued delivery of these standards, through applied use of leading science and technology. Being the first to acquire RMS models in the Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council (re)insurance market, we expect that our use of RMS models will increase value, and ultimately profitability, to all our global clients when managing their risk.” RMS EVP Client Development Pat McCarthy said, “We are honored to be working with Saudi Re. With this deal, the reinsurance and insurance markets in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia are able to take full advantage of the latest science and technology to help navigate the evolving risk landscape. Our continued investment in our models and services aims to give Saudi Re full confidence that they will be in the best position to proactively support their own clients and goals.” END About Saudi Re Saudi Reinsurance Company "Saudi Re" is a Saudi joint stock company, founded in Riyadh in 2008 as the first reinsurance company established in Saudi Arabia. With offices in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Saudi Re is one of the MENA regions leading reinsurers and has a diversified global portfolio which expands over 40 countries across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Saudi Re is A3 rated by Moody’s with a stable outlook.
Newark, Calif. – June 8, 2021 – Today, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced that Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models was approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) on June 1, 2021, for use in residential rate filings with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. The certification applies to Version 21.0 hurricane models available on RiskLink® 21.0 and the Risk Modeler application on the RMS open cloud platform, RMS Risk Intelligence™. This multi-environment approval builds on the successes of the Version 18.1 FCHLPM certification in 2019, when RMS became the first catastrophe risk modeling and solutions firm to have its hurricane models certified for use simultaneously on both on-premises and cloud software. Matthew Nielsen, senior director, regulatory affairs, RMS, said: “Obtaining FCHLPM certification is a key milestone in the development and go-to-market process of our hurricane models. It underscores the continued quality and reliability of our North Atlantic Hurricane Models, based on industry-leading science, data, methods, engineering, and software. The certification also has implications for other regions, as many other states affected by hurricanes look to Florida’s model certification process as a first step for their own state approvals.” On May 5, 2021, RMS announced updates to Version 21.0 of its hurricane models. Informed by new data and learnings from recent impactful seasons, including more than US$6 billion in new claims data, the updated hurricane models allow RMS to continue providing the (re)insurance market with the most comprehensive view of the hurricane risk landscape. Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models Suite, said: “The updates in Version 21.0 include the latest insights into current and evolving market conditions in risk-prone areas. For instance, recent changes to the statewide building code in Florida have extended the geographical applicability of roof replacement requirements throughout the state. Initial assessments suggest this may drive material increases on overall claim severity, because it means a roof that might experience as little as 25% damage is required to be replaced in full. In Version 21, alongside our reference view of vulnerability, we've introduced a new alternative view of vulnerability for residential lines in Florida to help clients understand the sensitivities of these potential impacts to their books.” Other enhancements in Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models include: Long-term event rates updates to incorporate two new seasons of hurricane activity (2017-2018) from the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) data. New medium-term rate forecast for 2021-2025 informed by data-driven updates, including the latest historical Atlantic Basin hurricane data through the record-breaking 2020 season. New historical event reconstructions from recent seasons, including hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Maria (2017), and Michael (2018). Vulnerability updates in the Caribbean based on new claims data and learnings from the impactful 2017-2018 seasons. Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer and executive vice president, models and data, RMS said: “As the 2021 hurricane season is now underway, it’s important to remember that hurricane is one of the biggest drivers of annual insured losses throughout the North Atlantic Basin. Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models incorporates important learnings and insights from the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, including the most new claims data and event rates informed by data from the most recent 2020 season. These advantages help give (re)insurers a more comprehensive view of risk applicable at the point of underwriting through to portfolio management and risk transfer decisions." The FCHLPM certification of Version 21.0 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models will be valid until November 1, 2023. Version 21.0 will be generally available on June 23, 2021, on both RiskLink and Risk Modeler simultaneously. Learn more about the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models here. The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.