Newark, CA – May 6, 2020: The world is experiencing the extraordinary crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the never-ending climate crisis and escalating cyber threats. Markets, supply chains, economies, societies and assets can be highly susceptible to shocks and damage from these dynamically shifting risks, posing major challenges to understanding the impacts of these risks and to recovery. Today, at the annual Exceedance® conference, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, underscored the high cost that both acute and chronic risks pose while demonstrating that informed decision-making requires next-generation risk insights. To help address these challenges, RMS announced new model updates during the conference – focusing on infectious diseases, climate and cyber risk.
During his keynote presentation today, Mohsen Rahnama, Executive Vice President, Models, at RMS, compared lessons from COVID-19 to the response to climate change: “Over the last 120 days, every daily action has been critical to flattening the COVID-19 curve and has given us more data to gain insights into outcomes; similarly, climate change has gradually influenced risk over the last 120 years and will for the years to come. In turn, actions taken annually by companies and organizations will be equally critical to both understanding the totality of the risks and impacting outcomes. The effects span all parts of the insurance value chain from acute risks arising from catastrophic events, such as hurricane landfalls, to chronic risks, such as coastal flooding at high tide.”
In the same keynote, Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development, at RMS, stressed that science, data and models have together brought higher confidence to the relationship between climate change and insured perils. “One example is sea level, which we know, based on observations and physics, is rising globally and will continue to rise in the future. RMS is moving forward on two fronts: first, keeping cat models up to date with the latest in climate science, and second, developing new ways of projecting risk based on the future climate, in the near term as well as the long term. In addition, due to COVID-19, extreme weather events that occur this year, such as a major hurricane landfall, will potentially present a number of new challenges for insurers, such as with deployment of adjusters and claims processing, potentially while communities are social distancing. RMS Event Response services provide critical real- time insights for these types of events to help meet these challenges.”
Companies and governments are compelled to understand risks more deeply than ever before, and they need modern technology and the highest-quality, most-advanced models to accomplish this challenging task.
RMS has recently enhanced key models to help clients address the risks posed by these chronic and acute disasters.
ENDS
Moe Khosravy, executive vice president of software at RMS, explains how the Covid-19 pandemic will influence the insurance sector – and why climate risk will be a major area of focus...…
Newark, CA – September 24, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates that total U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Sally will be between US$2.0 and US$3.5 billion. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$400m and US$800m. U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Sally (US$ billions): Wind & Surge Inland Flood NFIP Total 1.3 - 2.3 0.3 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.8 2.0 - 3.5 “Sally made landfall with much stronger winds than expected. While it weakened considerably as it moved inland, the slow-moving nature of the storm brought persistent wind and storm surge to much of the Gulf coastline, combined with heavy rainfall and widespread flooding to interior regions. Sally is another example of how hurricane damage can take many different forms”, said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. This estimate includes wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses across parts of the Gulf and Florida regions, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and estimates from the RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Sally’s hazards that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed wind speeds and storm surge. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. Estimates include post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects the majority of insured losses will impact residential lines. The estimate also includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which RMS expects to reach US$400 million to US$800 million. NFIP losses were derived using an RMS view of NFIP exposure based on the 2019 policy-in-force data published by FEMA, the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models, and the U.S. Inland Flood HD Model. “We expect Sally to be a sizable event for the NFIP. The majority of NFIP take-up occurs in coastal counties, especially in the states most impacted by the hurricane, notably Alabama and Florida. However, the inland extent of heavy rainfall from this event means we’ll likely see NFIP losses stemming from inland flood as well,” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development. Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday, September 16, 2020 as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Sally produced sustained winds of 105 mph (170 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Informed by a suite of real-time observational data sources, RMS HWind products estimated comparable winds at and just after landfall. The landfall location was also well-forecast by the HWind forecasting products. “In the days leading up to landfall, our HWind forecasts consistently provided clients with scenarios indicating a potential Alabama landfall location, even prior to the NHC official forecasts trending east away from New Orleans. This event is another strong validation point in demonstrating the predictive value of these products,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development. In the 24-36 hours following landfall, Sally weakened quickly as it tracked further inland into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas, before being downgraded to a “remnant low” on September 17. Hurricane Sally was the eighteenth named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the seventh hurricane, and the fourth U.S. landfalling hurricane of this very active season. Sally is the eighth named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. so far in 2020, a new record for U.S. landfall activity as of mid-September. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF. …
NEWARK, Calif. – September 22, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk company estimates insured losses for the Western U.S. will be between US$4.0 and US$8.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of September 20, 2020, and further escalation in losses are likely as many fires are still ongoing in California, Oregon, and Washington. RMS estimates insured losses from major wildfires in Northern California, Oregon, and Washington as follows (US$ billions): Regions Insured Losses as of September 20, 2020 Northern California 3.0 - 5.0 Oregon & Washington 1.0 - 3.0 Wildfires in the Western U.S. have led to over four million acres burned so far (2.5 million in Northern California and over 1.5 million in Oregon and Washington) and over 13,500 structures damaged or destroyed as of September 20, 2020. Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “While this season is exceptionally noteworthy on many fronts, I want to highlight a silver lining: 30 to 60 percent of structures in many of these mega complex footprints actually survived the fire. This is because building science has identified many factors that increase the survivability of structures such as wildfire-resistant vents. We need to find bold ways to duplicate those measures at scale. If this is the new normal, we can’t afford not to embrace effective steps towards mitigation.” RMS estimates include losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI) across residential, commercial, industrial lines, and additional living expenses (ALE). Smoke and evacuation are significant contributors to losses during the ongoing Western U.S. wildfires, contributing about 20 percent of losses in Northern California fires and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington fires, respectively. The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the RMS U.S. Wildfire HD Model, part of the suite of RMS North America Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Models, released in February 2019. The model covers the contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports for Oregon and Washington fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database. As many major fires are still active in these states, additional increases in loss are possible. Learn more about the RMS North America Wildfire HD Model here. ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF. …
RMS.com uses cookies to improve your experience and analyze site usage. Read Cookie Policy or click I understand.
