LONDON – February 14, 2020 – RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, estimates that insured property losses from Windstorm Ciara, also known as Sabine, will likely fall between 1.1 and 1.8 billion Euro (US$1.2 and US$1.95 billion). Losses in Germany will account for around 50 percent of the total loss. Ciara also affected France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic between February 8-11.
The loss estimate is based on a hazard reconstruction using the version 15.0 RMS® Europe Windstorm Models and includes damage to property, auto, forestry, agriculture, and direct business interruption but excludes losses from damage to infrastructure. RMS does not expect any post-event loss amplification and anticipates low business interruption losses. Losses from auto are not expected to exceed more than five percent of the total loss.
“Windstorm Ciara is very likely to be the first billion-Euro windstorm of this season. This event exhibited characteristics typical of European windstorms, with low gusty winds causing widespread damage across several countries, and is most comparable to Windstorm Emma in 2008,” said Michèle Lai, product manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS. “Our loss range represents the current uncertainty in the event loss, which is primarily driven by prolonged, squally gusts that locally affected several regions across the continent.”
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses.
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