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NEWARK, CA – October 31, 2019 RMS®, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, has estimated insured losses stemming from Typhoon Hagibis in Japan will be between USD $7 billion to $11 billion. This estimate includes property damage and business interruption caused by typhoon wind and typhoon flood to residential, commercial, industrial, marine, and automobile lines, and includes both the private and kyosai/mutual markets. Additional factors for post-event loss amplification and non-modeled losses include demand surge and claims inflation impacts associated with overlapping of areas impacted by the recent Typhoon Faxai, and widespread damage to infrastructure.

The industry loss estimate is informed based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed wind field and flood footprint using the RMS® Japan Typhoon HD model. In addition, the estimate includes additional factors based on data and insights from field reconnaissance by RMS modelers. The circumstances of this event–chiefly, Typhoon Faxai hitting one month earlier and the ensuing widespread flooding–make Hagibis a complex event to model. Three RMS teams surveyed affected areas over two weeks to better understand this event. Field reconnaissance provides factual details about the geographical extent and severity of hazard and impact that cannot be ascertained readily through photographs of the damage circulated in the media.

While last month’s Typhoon Faxai was a wind-driven event, RMS estimates typhoon flooding from Hagibis contributes significantly to the overall losses in the event, approaching 60 percent of the total insured loss. RMS estimated the insured loss from Faxai to be between USD $5 billion to $9 billion.

Margaret Joseph, Senior Product Manager of the RMS Japan Typhoon Model, said, “The combined losses from the two recent storms, Typhoon Hagibis and Typhoon Faxai, could rival insured losses from Typhoon Jebi that struck Japan last year.”

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About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) a Moody's Analytics company, shapes the world's view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector. We empower organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics. RMS models underlie the nearly US$2 trillion Property & Casualty industry and many insurers, reinsurers, and brokers around the world rely on RMS model science.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by offering unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence across organizations and industries. 

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner, enabling effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

RMS is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency.

Media Contacts

Matthew Longbottom

PR Lead, EU and APAC
+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

Haggie Partners

PR Lead, Americas
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