London, U.K. - September 26, 2019 RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, has estimated that the insured loss from Typhoon Faxai will be between $5.0 and $9.0 billion (¥ 500 to ¥950 billion). This estimate includes property damage and business interruption caused by typhoon wind and coastal flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, marine, and automobile lines - and includes both the private and mutual/kyosai markets.
Additional factors for post-event loss amplification specific to this event, and for non-modeled losses are also included in this estimate. These include: an increase in materials and labor costs due to the forthcoming Summer Olympics, contents and business interruption from extended power outages, and automobile loss.
The estimate is based on analysis of the RMS reconstructed wind field and coastal flood footprint through the Japan Typhoon HD model. In addition, the industry loss estimates include data and insights from analysis of aerial imagery and field reconnaissance by modelers from the RMS Tokyo office.
Margaret Joseph, Senior Manager, RMS, said: “The equivalent of a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) at landfall, Typhoon Faxai was one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record in the Kanto region, and the strongest landfalling typhoon in this region to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004. Faxai underwent an eyewall replacement cycle immediately prior to landfall, which weakened wind speeds; however, a wider area experienced the system’s strongest winds as a result of a broadening of the wind field.”
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.