London, U.K. - September 24, 2018 RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, has estimated that the insured loss for Hurricane Florence will be between USD $2.8 billion and USD $5 billion. This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and inland flood damage across North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
USD$ Billion6.4 – 8.70.4 – 1.36.8 – 10.0
The estimate includes property damage and business interruption caused by wind, coastal flooding, and inland flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business. It also factors in post-event loss amplification. The figures also include estimated losses to the NFIP, which RMS expects to reach between US$800 million and US$1.2 billion.
Similar to events like Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma in 2017, RMS expects uninsured precipitation-induced flood losses from Florence to be material due to the prolonged, record-breaking rainfall.
70 percent of flood losses are expected to be uninsured for this event. Accounting for uninsured wind, storm surge, and rainfall-driven flood losses in the U.S., RMS expects the overall economic loss from Hurricane Florence to fall between USD $6.0 billion and USD $11.0 billion. Economic losses, in this case, are losses to all potentially insurable properties, independent of whether they have coverage or not. It does not include items like roads and utilities, and government-owned property, which is often self-insured (or not at all).
Post loss amplification is included in these figures as RMS expects that prolonged recovery efforts will create interruption and amplify losses in the coming weeks and months. Florence caused significant damage to infrastructure in North and South Carolina, cutting off access to damage areas and further delaying the return of residents and reopening of businesses. Furthermore, the breadth of Florence's impact in the southeast U.S., particularly from inland flooding, may produce a large volume of claims for insurers to address, leading to potential claims inflation. It is also possible that Assignment of Benefits issues, combined with an aggressive legal environment, may contribute to a heighted loss amplification status within the state.
Hurricane Florence was the sixth named storm of the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since Hurricane Irene in 2011. Florence made landfall on Friday, September 14 near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Prior to reaching the U.S. mainland, Florence hit major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater), with sustained winds estimated by RMS HWind to have reached 127 miles per hour (204 km/hr). These wind speeds make it one of the most intense storms to navigate north of 30°N in recent history.
For this loss estimate, wind and storm surge impacts were simulated using version 18.0 RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models and RMS ensemble footprints, which are hazard reconstructions of Florence’s wind field and storm surge
The upcoming RMS U.S. Inland Flood High Definition (HD) Model was also used to simulate the precipitation, run-off, and pluvial and fluvial flows through the southeast U.S. and Virginia.
Consistent with RMS event response efforts in recent years, RMS reconnaissance teams went onsite to survey the hazard and vulnerability impacts of Florence. Their detailed analyses further validated the RMS modeled extent and severity of the hurricane.
Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, RMS,said: “We were fortunate that Florence weakened considerably before making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. While wind-driven damages will still be sizable, the story of this storm is the flood impacts. Florence’s slow moving nature brought historic rainfall and flooding to the Carolinas.”
“Florence is yet another large inland flood event that exposes the protection gap for flood insurance in the U.S. NFIP take-up rates are less than 1 percent for the vast majority of non-coastal counties in the North and South Carolinas. Thus, we expect much of the losses in interior portions of the region to be largely uninsured.”
The technology and data used in providing this Information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
LONDON – 26 August, 2022 – AXA Climate, an entity of the AXA Group specializing in climate change adaptation, will include HWind analytics from RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, as a trigger metric for its relevant parametric insurance policies. HWind produces real-time data sets for tropical cyclone events, allowing quick evaluation of hurricane trigger/payout conditions, which enables parametric policyholders to gain rapid access to capital following impactful events. RMS HWind solutions offer comprehensive coverage over the Western North Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins. Using RMS HWind helps AXA Climate to be fully flexible as to how and where they structure parametric policies, allowing AXA Climate to reassure their clients that they will quickly receive the protection they paid for when damaging winds are present. Amaury Dufetel, Head of Insurance, AXA Climate, said: “As an Engaged Climate Insurer, we believe the preciseness of sophisticated real-time data is essential to improve the use and uptake of parametric insurance solutions. Data coming from independent reputable organizations like RMS HWind solutions, developed over more than 25 years by one of the world’s leading hurricane observation researchers, will allow us to structure innovative parametric covers and bring to our clients the best tailormade Tropical Cyclone coverage both in terms of price and claim settlement.” Charlotte Acton, Senior Director, RMS, added: “By working closely with AXA Climate, we have been able to help an important client develop innovative products that offer a competitive advantage and can help enable growth into new markets. Parametric insurance is another example of how the insurance industry can help build resilience into economies, which in turn helps reduce the protection gap. RMS remains committed to supporting insurance innovation, in our products, for our clients, and for their end users.” About AXA Climate AXA Climate is a Committed Climate Insurer: We integrate best-in-class climate expertise and data in all our products. We believe that from this decade onwards, only private and public actors committed to a sustainable transition will be insurable. Our mission is to reinvent the insurance business to support those engaged in sustainable transitions. We have developed a set of business lines around climate change: parametric insurance against climate risks, climate and nature consulting services, financing and climate training to engage all employees. We are a team of over 150 collaborators spread across the 5 continents, leveraging the entire AXA ecosystem. Visit https://www.climate.axa/ to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn.
NEWARK, CA – 15 August, 2022 – Andrew Hare has been appointed Managing Director, Asia-Pacific at RMS®, a Moody's Analytics company and global leader in risk modeling and solutions. Andrew will be responsible for integrating and leading the strategy and execution across the combined RMS and Moody’s Analytics Insurance Vertical, as well as overseeing client relationships and business development in the region. He will be based in Singapore and will report to Michael Steel, General Manager at RMS, and Wael Jadallah, Moody’s Analytics Head of APAC and the Middle East. Andrew has almost 25 years of experience and was most recently Managing Director and Head of Aon Inpoint (Aon's insurance advisory business) for Asia. He was previously a Managing Director responsible for Strategy and Growth at Aon Reinsurance Solutions across Asia-Pacific. During his 17-year career with Aon, Andrew worked extensively with insurers and reinsurers in the U.K., Europe, Bermuda, and North America before moving to Singapore in 2013. Andrew began his career with Accenture after majoring in Business Management at Oxford Brookes University. Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS said: "Andrew brings extensive experience in the insurance industry, as well as a thorough understanding of the diverse risk requirements in Asia-Pacific, where he has built industry-leading teams and capabilities that have delivered deep insights and added value to insurers and reinsurers. We are delighted to welcome Andrew and look forward to the positive impact he will have on RMS and Moody's Analytics clients. We have always placed a high value on the Asia-Pacific region, and Andrew's appointment demonstrates our continued commitment to providing leading insight, data, and analytics to our clients, communities, and the industry." Wael Jadallah, General Manager Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, Moody's Analytics, highlighted: “We are delighted to have Andrew join as Managing Director and head of our Insurance practice in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Andrew is well known and respected by an extensive network within the insurance industry globally. He brings a wealth of experience and his appointment is a testimony of Moody’s Analytics’ investment in our regions, as we continue to invest in our commitment to add value to our clients’ evolving needs.” Andrew Hare, Managing Director, Asia-Pacific, RMS added: “Climate change and natural catastrophes, such as flood, fire, earthquake, and typhoon, continue to wreak havoc on the Asia-Pacific region. Following the devastating effects of the COVID-19 outbreak as well as chronic supply chain disruptions, heightened cyberattacks, social and economic inflation, and global geopolitical uncertainty, many economies and communities in the region are continuing their long road to recovery. RMS, with the combination of capabilities with Moody’s Analytics, is uniquely positioned to provide a deep understanding of the region’s evolving risk profile and increase confidence in risk management and selection. I am thrilled to join the team to deliver an integrated risk assessment strategy that will help clients and communities decode risk and unlock opportunity."
LONDON – 3 August, 2022 – Covenant Underwriters, the e-commerce insurance program administrator, is using Location Intelligence API from RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, to provide real-time premium indications to its clients during the quotation process. RMS Location Intelligence API offers market-leading, high-resolution, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics delivered directly into underwriting workflows. Clients using Location Intelligence API benefit from trusted model data to help customize pricing for each policy, helping avoid adverse selection and to provide greater opportunities for dynamic pricing. Location Intelligence API is available in multiple countries and covers key modeled perils like hurricane, flood, earthquake, wildfire, convective storm, and more. Daniel Murray, Chief Underwriter at Covenant Underwriters, said: “Covenant has developed an API-powered rating algorithm that leverages big data and artificial intelligence to produce an instant price indication for any given address. Using an application programming interface (API) to integrate RMS knowledge and insight directly into the Covenant platform, enables our retail brokers to craft the winning terms during the quote process.” Marisa Ruscitto, Managing Director, RMS, said: “The RMS Location Intelligence API enables users to benefit from a competitive advantage with real-time, location-level hazard, risk, and loss metrics. Using these metrics not only helps with risk selection but also pricing, screening, and referrals. As underwriting workflows automate rapidly, an increasing number of industry leaders are adopting real-time underwriting processes and decision-making capability to quickly match risk to capital, and to better support their clients and their business.” About Covenant Underwriters Based in Houston, Texas, Covenant Underwriters develops and administers e-commerce insurance programs that leverage custom forms, cutting-edge technology, and niche underwriting to make specialty insurance easy for retail brokers. Current niche programs include commercial package policies for limited-service hotels and convenience stores with gas stations. Visit Covenant Underwriters for more information.