NEWARK, Cali. - July 18, 2018 RMS, the leading global risk modeling and analytics firm, announces the release of Version 4.2 of the RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) and the update in RiskLink Version 18 of the RMS Terrorism Scenario Model (TSM). This update will equip terrorism model licensees with the tools they need to address both recent trends in the threat landscape like the rise of lone-wolf attacks and market challenges such as understanding the geography spread of risk within major cities.
The terrorism model update includes the following components:
• Refinements to the Terrorism Target Database for US, UK, and Belgium
• Updates the conditional probability of a terrorist attack (by target category and attack mode) based on attack and threat group data in US, UK, Canada, Italy, Denmark and France.
• Addition of Belgium (Brussels area) - PTM now includes the greater Brussels area, with 228 targets and 2,845 events.
The update to the Terrorism Target Database includes the addition of new targets to reflect the construction of new, high-profile, urban properties as well as the removal of targets that no longer meet the criteria for target selection. There are also refinements in the latitude and longitude coordinates of key attack points.
The increase in lone-wolf attacks at soft targets, such as hotels and transportation hubs, continues to be the focus of Islamic militants, given these targets are relatively unprotected due to their public access. Night clubs and other afterhours venues remain an attractive target, as these establishments are often tightly packed with crowds of people with limited exit routes, therefore enabling mass casualties. For these reasons, RMS expects more plots against these types of targets and has added a specific category to the US PTM and US TSM models.
RMS also has added all hotels under the Trump Organization in New York City and Washington DC to the US terrorism target database as there have been an increased threat of attack to these establishments since Donald Trump assumed the U.S. presidency in 2017.
In the UK and Belgium, the release updates the target database in the greater London area and in Brussels to reflect construction of new targets and removal of targets with diminished risk. The models now cover over 4,600 targets across the US, UK and Belgium; such as foreign consulates, government buildings, train stations and tourist attractions.
Although overall plot and attack frequency remain unchanged in US, UK, Canada, Italy, Denmark, and France, this release updates the conditional probability of various attack types to reflect the current risk landscape. Based on recent plots, the incidence of armed attacks as a preferred mode of attack has increased. To comply with this scenario, we have reduced the relative likelihood of conventional bomb attacks and increased the likelihood of armed attack in these countries.
These model updates are part of the wider launch of Version 18, RMS catastrophe risk management software. Based on the latest science, innovative methodologies and analytics, Version 18 expands global capabilities to deliver new and updated modeling insights to support profitable portfolio growth.
Gordon Woo, Catastrophist, RMS, said: “The global terrorism landscape is continually evolving. Numerous factors contribute to an increased or reduced risk outlook, both in terms of terrorist threat and the preparedness of governments and counter-terrorism initiatives. Persistent intelligence surveillance and diligent law enforcement action make it hard for terrorist plots involving multiple operatives to avoid detection. While this may reduce the risk of large-scale, coordinated attacks, it also increases the risk of lone-wolf attacks.
“We understand that it is important that our clients have the most up-to-date reliable information possible; they know and expect RMS will deliver this, and will continue to support them across all their modeling needs.”
Notes to Editors:
What is new in Version 18?
Terrorism: Updated scenario model including updates to targets database for US, UK and Belgium; updates to hazard footprints and changes to the default time of day, to react to changes in peak times across different occupations.
Australia Cyclone: Model update includes the most recent market and meteorological data and lessons learned from recent events, such as Cyclone Yasi in 2011, Cyclone Marcia in 2015 and Cyclone Debbie in 2017. The update also accounts for the rise in properties at risk, with the number of dwellings within 200km of the coast increasing by 15% between 2006 and 2016.
Australia Earthquake: Model update reflecting the latest scientific view of seismic hazard by incorporating data from the 2018 national seismic hazard map from Geoscience Australia. Updated event rates and ground motion models, combined with insight from local experts, provide the most up-to-date view of seismic risk in the country.
Philippines Typhoon: The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, with around 20 cyclones per year, and eight of these making landfall. New model capturing risk from wind and flooding, coastal storm surge and season precipitation-driven flooding. The model expands the RMS suite of climate modeling solutions to the Philippines.
India Flood: New fully probabilistic Flood model. Flooding is the most significant natural hazard affecting India, comprising of about three-quarters of natural catastrophe losses. The new model combines the latest science with local engineering expertise, with an event set based on 125,000 events across 9,033 catchments throughout India; accounting for monsoon rainfall and expanding areas of impermeable ground in major cities such as Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi.
India Earthquake: Update with high resolution geotechnical information for hazard amplification to differentiate risk. Over a thousand vulnerability functions are included with additional solutions for underwriting key exposures such as industrial facilities, buildings under construction, and marine cargo and specie risks. The financial model includes additional losses from landslide and liquefaction hazards.
South Korea Earthquake: New model model covers ground shaking, liquefaction, and landslide risk, enabling users to comprehensively assess earthquake risk in South Korea. While events in this region are relatively rare, they have the potential to be damaging. In 2016 the Mw 5.4 Gyeongju Earthquake hit and in 2017 the Mw 5.4 Pohang Earthquake occurred close to the city of Pohang, damaging more than 23,000 buildings.
Marine Cargo: Update allowing detailed insight into cargo fragility and exposure accumulation, enabling the identification of vulnerable concentrations of static cargo, the measurement of port accumulations, and the analysis of loss severity for key events.
North America Hurricane: Storm surge update incorporating new methods and data made available since the last U.S. storm surge model update. This enhances risk differentiation between defended and undefended areas prone to storm-surge. Also included are defense assumptions and wave treatment within the storm surge hazard module, as well as basement functionality and first floor height assumptions within the vulnerability module.
Post Loss Amplification: Post Loss Amplification (PLA) has been added for all the updated and new models. PLA captures the potential for losses after severe events to be higher due to the impact of claims inflation, economic demand surge as well as super catastrophes.
NEWARK, CA – January 25, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, estimates total U.S. economic losses from the recent California flooding at US$5-7 billion. This estimate reflects inland flood impacts for the U.S. and includes damage to infrastructure. The insured losses are anticipated to be between US$0.5-1.5 billion, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the private flood market. The overall economic loss estimate is based on an event reconstruction using the Moody’s RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model and reflects property damage, contents, and business interruption, across residential, commercial, industrial, automobile and infrastructure assets. A series of extratropical cyclones starting December 26, 2022, impacted the West Coast of the U.S, which resulted in heavy rainfall, overtopped rivers, flash floods, levee breaches, mudslides, fallen trees, debris flow, and heavy snow at high altitudes, together with some wind damage. The rainfall associated with these extratropical cyclones was exacerbated by a band of high atmospheric water vapor, also known as an ‘atmospheric river’. The rainfall intensity in California was so extreme that several locations in central California set new three-week rainfall records and certain locations received their annual average rainfall totals in less than one month. This led to widespread flash floods and river overtopping, for example, water depths in the San Lorenzo River upstream of Santa Cruz rose by more than 16 feet (4.87 meters) in less than eight hours. This was the highest recorded water depth for the San Lorenzo River since records began some 85 years ago. Infrastructure damage, which is accounted for within the economic loss estimates, was extensive. State highways and local roads bore the brunt of the damage due to a combination of flooding and mudslides. Trees previously stressed by dry conditions were uprooted due to high water velocities, saturated soils and heavy winds, which also caused damage to power networks, as well as to cars and properties. The continuous rainfall and compound impacts from riverine-groundwater-coastal interactions also resulted in prolonged flooding for certain urban coastal areas of California. Furthermore, the continuous drought preceding these extratropical cyclones events adds an extra dimension of complexity for reservoir operators and residents. It is important to highlight that 2022 was the second driest year in over 128 years for certain areas (e.g., Santa Cruz) and was categorized under ‘extreme drought’ according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. Although there has been a significant increase in the water levels of major reservoirs and snowpack, it remains unlikely that California is out of the drought, especially when it comes to aquifer replenishment, given the last three years of extreme drought and excessive groundwater withdrawals. These storms generated high-intensity rainfall resulting in a high proportion of rainfall running off into the ocean, whereas aquifers generally recharge gradually from less intense rainfall systems and snow melt. “To put this event in historical perspective with the 1862 ARkStorm, although some impacted areas are similar, the ARkStorm produced much more severe precipitation, for example, 35 inches (88.9 centimeters) of precipitation in San Francisco compared to ~ 15 inches (38 centimeters) from this event. Another important mitigating factor for this event is the presence of flood defenses, which were mostly absent in 1862,” said Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, Moody’s RMS. A relatively small proportion of the economic damage is expected to be covered by insurance. The number of households in California with flood insurance stands at less than two percent – a figure that has been steadily declining. As of August 2022, there were only 193,281 residential National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies in place, representing a decline of around five percent as compared to 2021. These low flood insurance take-up rates are attributed to the fact that only homeowners holding a government-backed loan who live in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) are mandated to obtain a flood insurance policy. But these SFHA boundary ‘flood zones’ do not always reflect the current flood risk, are backward-looking, and are infrequently revised. Other factors impacting flood insurance take-up rates include, but are not limited to, affordability, the misconception that flood is covered under a standard homeowners’ policy, and a lack of understanding of the associated incurred cost from flooding. Firas Saleh, Director, Product Management, Moody’s RMS, concluded: “Extreme drought leads to soil compaction which means less infiltration and more runoff, hence less aquifer recharge and higher risk of flooding. Nowhere is safe from flooding in California today. If we’ve learned anything from this extreme rainfall and subsequent damage, it’s that even perceived low-risk flood zones are still flood zones. If it rains, it can overflow.”
NEWARK, CA – 18 January 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, is pleased to announce that, as of the end of 2022, over 100 active clients have adopted and/or are utilizing applications and services on the Moody’s RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ (IRP). Designed for unified risk analytics, the IRP is a software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform offering applications and services such as Risk Modeler, which enables all risk exposures to be prepared and managed in one place, ready for risk modeling, accumulation, and loss analysis using RMS High Definition™, Detailed Loss, and Aggregate Loss Models. The platform comes with application programming interfaces (APIs) available to deliver global hazard data, risk scores, and loss costs for touchless underwriting as well as real-time event response information, with applications such as ExposureIQ™ – which proved highly valuable during Hurricane Ian in 2022 – to establish the potential impact of an event on a client’s portfolio. The platform has gained significant traction among brokers, insurers, reinsurers, managing general agents (MGAs), and Lloyd’s syndicates across the globe, including Apollo, Tokio Marine, and Gallagher Re, and has also proved popular with banks and real estate asset managers keen to utilize the insights across their portfolios. The IRP removes the need to procure and maintain extensive, high-cost IT infrastructure environments required to support various risk modeling and analytics applications. Insurance and financial services clients also benefit from a quick onboarding process offering access to applications and associated models within days of subscribing. RMS risk models are available on the IRP from the latest High-Definition models, to Detailed Loss Models (DLM) and Aggregate Loss Models (ALM), using established RiskLink® and RiskBrowser® workflows familiar to the market. IRP applications are also designed to integrate with third-party and in-house systems used by insurance and financial firms to provide enhanced data insights. Clients using the cloud-based IRP have availability to the latest model data, with risk model updates integrated automatically with minimal downtime, without the requirement for maintenance and additional IT support. Cihan Biyikoglu, Executive Vice President, Moody’s RMS, said: “I am thrilled to see the great enthusiasm from our customers to the Intelligent Risk Platform. In this short period since its birth, we have customers across all major geographies, including Europe, the Americas, and Asia, and across insurers, reinsurers, and brokers modeling their accounts, portfolios, and underwriting on our platform every day. As one measure of engagement, we are already seeing hundreds of millions of commercial and residential locations analyzed daily on our platform, from earthquakes to hurricanes, and windstorms to climate change models.” “By Moody’s RMS successfully delivering a true SaaS application, clients have genuinely benefited from highly scalable automation and integration to create far more efficient end-to-end risk modeling workflows across business applications. And by clients adopting the IRP, we are also seeing an increasing number of businesses turning off their on-premises RiskLink or legacy analytics applications altogether. We look to further develop and enhance the IRP experience as the client base continues to grow and expand.”
LONDON – December 12, 2022 – Ardonagh Specialty, part of the Ardonagh Group, has signed a new agreement with RMS®, a Moody’s Analytics company and world-leading risk modeling and solutions company, to broaden their adoption of the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ and advance Ardonagh Specialty’s risk modeling and advisory capabilities using the RMS U.S. Flood HD Model and the RMS U.S. Wildfire HD Model. The partnership spans Ardonagh Specialty’s brands including Besso, Bishopsgate, Compass London Markets, Ed Broking, Inver Re, Piiq, and Price Forbes. Antony Erotocritou, CEO of Ardonagh Specialty said: “It has always been important to us that Ardonagh Specialty strives to offer increased value to our clients. Investment in differentiating data and analytics capabilities is a core part of our value proposition. We’re excited to partner with clients and markets, creating new value, and unlocking new opportunities for the industry. By extending our long-term partnership with RMS we are confident that all our clients will continue to benefit from the high levels of service and solutions we always aim to deliver.” Michael Steel, General Manager, RMS added: “We are delighted to extend and strengthen our work with Ardonagh. Advanced implementation of RMS Risk Modeler™ can only enhance the speed, precision, and consistency across all risk decisions across the portfolio. As the increased impact of major catastrophic events such as floods and wildfires continues to evolve, brokers and insurers are keen to embrace the latest science and technology to help them better understand the risks and opportunities they face. We’re delighted to help Ardonagh service their clients with distinction.” About Ardonagh Specialty Ardonagh Specialty is the holding company and growth platform for leading independent brokers Besso Insurance, Bishopsgate, Compass London Markets, Ed Broking, Inver Re, Piiq Risk Partners, and Price Forbes. Combined, Ardonagh Specialty has 1,400 colleagues globally and manages US$6 billion in gross written premium. With a strong presence and deep relationships worldwide, and a steadfast commitment to investing in the best people, markets, and technology, together the businesses offer open market programs, reinsurance, and international solutions designed to empower clients to achieve their strategic ambition.