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London, U.K. - January 16, 2018 RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, has won a prestigious award for its new high-definition flood models for Europe, in recognition of their potential to transform risk management for the continent’s flood (re)insurers. The RMS Europe Inland Flood HD Models were awarded Best Catastrophe Risk Modeling Solution at the 2017 InsuranceERM Awards.

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In the last two decades, flood has accounted for a third of all European natural catastrophe losses. But until now modelers were forced to use short-cut approximations because computers could not handle the complexity associated with applying flood risk science at high-resolution over the entire continent. Flood risk can differ significantly at properties only meters apart, while affecting huge regions of the continent across national boundaries. The new model is a major step forward for the industry, because it exploits the computational power of the cloud to represent flood risk, using the latest scientific evidence, at a highly granular level.

Commenting on the award, Dr. Maurizio Savina, a hydrologist and director of international flood model management at RMS said, “with Europe’s broad weather systems, coupled with the complicated transnational river networks, flood is very much a pan-European problem. So, we set out to create the first pan-European solution, spanning 13 countries, that could also model how floods change over hours and days using a continuous time and space simulation. It’s been a fantastic RMS team effort, very much a labour of love, and we’re delighted to see the end result receive this acclaim.”

The RMS model can be adopted for selected countries or as a pan-European set. It has recently proved its worth to numerous clients during 1/1 renewals, and many more are expected to have completed model validation in time for 2019 renewals. Flood Re, the UK not-for-profit scheme funded by insurers, is also using the RMS Europe Inland Flood HD Model in the United Kingdom

Further information about the capabilities of the RMS model can be found here.

IERM Awards

 

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February 23, 2023
Moody’s RMS Estimates Total Economic and Insured Losses from the Turkey Earthquakes Likely to Exceed US$25 Billion and US$5 Billion Respectively

NEWARK, CA – February 23, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, estimates economic losses from the moment magnitude (Mw) Mw7.8 and Mw7.5 earthquakes that struck southern Turkey on Monday, February 6 are likely to exceed US$25 billion (TL₺471 billion), and the total insured loss is likely to exceed US$5 billion (TL₺94 billion). These loss estimates reflect the impact of the earthquakes in Turkey only; losses in Syria are not included. The insured losses include those to private insurers as well as to the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP).   The loss estimates are based on an analysis of the earthquake sequence using Moody’s RMS Europe Earthquake Models and reflect damage to property and contents, and business interruption, across residential, commercial, and industrial lines in Turkey. These estimates do not include post-event loss amplification or losses to non-modeled exposures such as transport and utility infrastructure. On Monday, February 6, an Mw7.8 earthquake struck east of the Turkish city of Nurdaği, triggering a strong earthquake sequence. This included an Mw7.5 earthquake that struck south-southeast of Ekinözü, Turkey. These earthquakes occurred in southern Turkey near the northern border with Syria, causing widespread and severe damage across Turkey and northern Syria, with shaking felt as far away as Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel, and the State of Palestine. The events ruptured multiple faults across the broad East Anatolia fault zone. The region is recognized as having a high earthquake hazard, with multiple earthquakes of Mw7.0 or greater since the nineteenth century. Nilesh Shome, Vice President of Earthquake Model Development at Moody’s RMS said: “The earthquakes ruptured geometrically complex faults with multiple branches and were part of an active sequence that included over 400 events of Mw4 or greater. It is very unusual for an earthquake to trigger another event of such a magnitude as the Mw7.5 earthquake. The two largest earthquakes generated significant ground motions, and many areas were impacted by both events.” The devastation was widespread. According to the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change[1], 11 provinces were severely affected by the earthquakes, and the damage was worst in Gaziantep, Hatay, and Kahramanmaraş. As of February 22, over 335,000 buildings are reported to have been damaged. A unique contributor to the overall loss is that most of the economic losses due to shaking can be attributed to structures with severe damage that have either already collapsed or will require demolition. Observations from early damage reports issued by the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, and Turkish research reconnaissance[2] indicate a systemic lack of adherence to seismic provisions, including government ‘amnesty’ programs[3] that have allowed continued occupancy of structures that do not meet seismic design requirements. Ongoing research will aim to understand the full extent of these code lapses, together with any future code updates and enforcement mechanisms that could arise from this event. Moody's RMS anticipates that any tightening of the codes or more stringent enforcement will likely increase repair and rebuild times, especially as the number of destroyed structures is so extensive. The damage reports to date suggest that mid- and high-rise buildings contribute significantly to the overall event loss. The road to recovery in Turkey will take several years due to the scale of the damage, and complex macroeconomic conditions that existed prior to the events, including significant inflation, will hamper the reconstruction and add to the overall costs. Laura Barksby, Product Manager, Moody’s RMS, concluded: “The events highlighted the devastation that can arise when large magnitude events coincide with vulnerable building stock. We continue to learn from each significant earthquake, and the events in Turkey act as a wake-up call for other earthquake-prone regions, particularly concerning the true quality of the building stock.”   END   The technology and data used in providing this information are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. MOODY’S RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS, AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL MOODY’S RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.   [1] Source: https://www.csb.gov.tr/ [2] Source: Middle East Technical University Preliminary Reconnaissance Report on February 6, 2023 [3] Source: Construction Amnesty

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February 21, 2023
Ocean Re Continues to Develop and Expand Client Opportunities Through New Agreement with Moody’s RMS

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January 25, 2023
Moody’s RMS Estimates US$5-7 Billion in Total U.S. Economic Losses from California Flooding

NEWARK, CA – January 25, 2023 – Moody’s RMS®, the leading global catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, estimates total U.S. economic losses from the recent California flooding at US$5-7 billion. This estimate reflects inland flood impacts for the U.S. and includes damage to infrastructure. The insured losses are anticipated to be between US$0.5-1.5 billion, including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the private flood market. The overall economic loss estimate is based on an event reconstruction using the Moody’s RMS U.S. Inland Flood HD Model and reflects property damage, contents, and business interruption, across residential, commercial, industrial, automobile and infrastructure assets. A series of extratropical cyclones starting December 26, 2022, impacted the West Coast of the U.S, which resulted in heavy rainfall, overtopped rivers, flash floods, levee breaches, mudslides, fallen trees, debris flow, and heavy snow at high altitudes, together with some wind damage. The rainfall associated with these extratropical cyclones was exacerbated by a band of high atmospheric water vapor, also known as an ‘atmospheric river’. The rainfall intensity in California was so extreme that several locations in central California set new three-week rainfall records and certain locations received their annual average rainfall totals in less than one month. This led to widespread flash floods and river overtopping, for example, water depths in the San Lorenzo River upstream of Santa Cruz rose by more than 16 feet (4.87 meters) in less than eight hours. This was the highest recorded water depth for the San Lorenzo River since records began some 85 years ago. Infrastructure damage, which is accounted for within the economic loss estimates, was extensive. State highways and local roads bore the brunt of the damage due to a combination of flooding and mudslides. Trees previously stressed by dry conditions were uprooted due to high water velocities, saturated soils and heavy winds, which also caused damage to power networks, as well as to cars and properties. The continuous rainfall and compound impacts from riverine-groundwater-coastal interactions also resulted in prolonged flooding for certain urban coastal areas of California. Furthermore, the continuous drought preceding these extratropical cyclones events adds an extra dimension of complexity for reservoir operators and residents. It is important to highlight that 2022 was the second driest year in over 128 years for certain areas (e.g., Santa Cruz) and was categorized under ‘extreme drought’ according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. 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About Moody's RMS

Moody’s RMS shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector, with Moody’s RMS models underlying the nearly $2 trillion USD Property & Casualty industry. Moody’s RMS empowers organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

Moody’s RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation, unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Organizations can address the risks of tomorrow with the Intelligent Risk Platform™, the only open cloud with collaborative applications and unified analytics that can power risk management excellence.

Further supporting the industry’s transition to modern risk management, in 2020, Moody’s RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a modern, open-standard data schema designed to be an extensible and flexible asset within modeling/analysis systems.

In 2021, Moody’s Corporation acquired Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and as part of Moody’s Analytics, Moody’s RMS serves the P&C insurance industry as the leading provider of expertise, science, and technology in integrated risk. A trusted solutions partner, Moody’s RMS enables effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

Visit RMS.com to learn more and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

© 2023 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its affiliates and licensors (“Moody’s RMS”). All rights reserved. All names, logos, and icons identifying Moody’s RMS and/or its products and services are trademarks of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and/or its licensors or affiliates. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.

RMS is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) and operates as part of the Moody’s Analytics business segment. Moody’s Analytics is operationally and legally separate from the Moody’s Investors Service credit rating agency.

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+44 20 7444 7706 prteam@rms.com

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