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Managing Pandemic Risk

The RMS Infectious Diseases Model uses fundamental principles of epidemiology to capture pathogen characteristics and assess how intervention strategies could reduce potential impacts.

Pandemics

RMS Infectious Disease Model

RMS pioneered the probabilistic quantification of the impacts of infectious disease with the release of an Infectious Diseases Model in 2006. This model covers influenza and emerging infectious disease pandemics, including the pathogenic virus causing COVID‑19.

Part of the RMS LifeRisks® platform, the model reflects the latest insights and medical research that underlies the drivers of pandemic mortality and allows for the use of alternative model parameters to support portfolio management, risk transfer and capital adequacy.

Probabilistic Infectious Disease Modeling

Epidemiological modeling and the historical records of recorded pandemics of the past three centuries are used to inform the RMS Infectious Disease Model.

Extensive Event Set

A stochastic event set of over 4,500 pandemics represent the full spectrum of pathogen characteristics and major intervention strategies affecting their impact.

Detailed Country Profiles

The model covers 59 countries with parameters such as age distributions, prevalence of pre‑existing conditions, health‑care capacity, immunization and drug availability.

Measuring Pandemic Spread

Two core measures are used: transmissibility – or the speed at which a pandemic spreads through a population, together with virulence based on case‑fatality rate.

Accounting for Mitigation

Factors that reduce pandemic mortality such as the use of pharmaceuticals and vaccines, together with non‑pharmaceutical interventions are considered within the model.

Pioneering Pandemic Models

Over 15 years, RMS has an enviable record of innovation as a pioneer of probabilistic infectious diseases modeling. Models help to assess the health and economic impacts of pandemics for insurers, investors, and governments.

Influenza Findings
2019

New Insight on Influenza

Findings from virologists on how childhood exposure to a previous influenza pandemic is imprinted on the immune system, is one of many discoveries incorporated into the updated RMS Infectious Diseases Model.

Ebola Crisis
2015

Ebola Crisis

After the 2014 Ebola crisis that impacted countries in West Africa, RMS presented alongside the World Bank on solutions for pandemic risk mitigation and financing.

MERS Outbreak
2015

MERS Analysis

In 2015, RMS developed a counterfactual scenario based on Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS+) which corresponded to a more transmissible mutation during the refugee exodus from Syria. This gave a warning that MERS itself was a near-miss.

National Pandemic Risk
2015

National Pandemic Risk

RMS experts contributed to positioning pandemic risk on the U.K. national risk matrix, as the highest risk in terms of likelihood and impact.

Economic Impacts
2011

Analyzing Global Pandemic Risk

Following the 2009 pandemic, RMS undertook an innovative study of pandemic risk to the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, in collaboration with Australian academic experts in global economic modeling.

ILS Excess Mortality Bonds
2011

ILS Excess Mortality Bonds

RMS undertook pandemic risk analysis for Swiss Re's excess mortality bonds at the time of the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic.

H1N1 Pandemic
2011

H1N1 Pandemic

Between April 2009 and April 2010, the H1N1 ‘swine flu’ virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the Centers for Disease Protection and Control.

Pandemic Risk Models
2006

Risk Model Applications

RMS explored the range of use of pandemic risk modeling to cover downturns in tourism, aviation, and life insurance portfolio optimization.

First Infectious Disease Model
2006

First Infectious Disease Model

RMS pioneered pandemic disease modeling, launched in 2006, during the emerging H5N1 Avian Flu crisis. Our principal academic adviser was Prof. Neil Ferguson, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists - then and now.

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