Tag Archives: RMS HWind

Hurricane Nate: Two Sides of the Story

22:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

Hurricane Nate continues to race towards the central Gulf Coast today. The hurricane has become significantly better organized in the last several hours, and now has maximum sustained winds in excess of 90 miles per hour (144 kilometers per hour) based on the RMS HWind snapshot at 18:00 UTC today. This surface wind analysis is based upon data collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters in addition to some surface and satellite-based observations.

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Tropical Storm Nate: Latest HWind Track Probability Analysis

01:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Friday, October 6. Using this new proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, and helps to deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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RMS HWind and Earth Networks: Sharpening the Focus on Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard

Jeff Waters, product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist, Earth Networks

As we have already seen during the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, tropical cyclones such as Harvey, Irma, and Maria cause an array of impacts to homes, businesses, and people, each with varying drivers of damage and recovery timelines. The resulting effects from these and other events reinforce the importance and value of preparedness and responsiveness when managing hurricane risk.

Having an accurate view of the extent and severity of hurricane hazard is imperative in informing effective event response strategies — both throughout a real-time event, and for efficient claims management processes afterwards. It can help insurers anticipate claims locations, counts and overall impacts to their book, where power outages and business interruption are likely to occur, where to deploy claims adjusters of various experience levels, and identify where fraudulent claims are likely (or unlikely) to occur.

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Hurricane Maria Continues its Northward Track

09:30 UTC  Monday, September 25

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts for Hurricane Maria has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Sunday, September 24. This proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, to help deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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The Meteorology of Irma

20:00 UTC  Monday, September 11

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

Steering the Storm

The synoptic patterns that steered Hurricane Irma this past week were complex. Like many intense storms that originate from an African easterly wave, Irma was steered westward across the tropical North Atlantic by the subtropical high to its north. As the storm moved into the Caribbean, a deep mid-latitude trough was sliding eastward across the East Coast of United States. The trough lifted poleward as Irma approached and a ridge steered Irma further to the west through the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas, rather than allowing the storm to turn to the northwest towards the Mid-Atlantic United States.

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Irma: Westward Forecast Shift Creates Déjà Vu With Matthew

15:00 UTC  Saturday, September 9

Tom Sabbatelli, hurricane risk expert – RMS

The westward-moving trend of recent Hurricane Irma forecasts continues, with the Florida Keys, southwest Florida, and Tampa potentially within Irma’s sights. Although the National Hurricane Center forecast “cone of uncertainty” still covers much of south Florida, 83 percent of the individual forecasts analyzed by the RMS HWind forecast product bring the hurricane within 50 nautical miles of Key West, indicating that the Miami metropolitan region may be spared the worst of Irma’s winds. 75 percent of these forecasts also indicate a passage within 50 nautical miles of Tampa (see “Selected Probabilities” in the figure below).

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Hurricane Irma: Latest HWind Track Probability Analysis

07:00 UTC  Saturday, September 9

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Friday, September 8. This new proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, to help deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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Preliminary RMS Analysis of Potential Losses from Hurricane Irma

17:00 UTC  Friday, September 8 

Tom Sabbatelli, hurricane risk expert, RMS

For the last 48 hours, all the forecasts have been consistent in indicating that Hurricane Irma will have a significant impact in Florida, most likely making landfall in the state. The latest RMS HWind forecast shows it tracking more westerly than before, and this reduces the potential for loss because of the relative concentrations of exposure in the southern end of the Florida peninsula.

Based on today’s long-range forecast, RMS calculates there is still a 10 percent chance of wind losses from Irma exceeding US$85 billion. This assumes a U.S. landfall, with the scenarios in RMS modeling showing almost all of that insurance loss to be in Florida.

But the loss range in this preliminary analysis could easily move higher or lower depending on shifts in the storm track and its intensity. Irma’s anticipated direction of travel has been changing continually through the week, oscillating between both coasts of Florida. It is likely that this changeability will continue, and so the modeling uncertainties remain significant.

RMS will continue to update its analysis of potential insurance losses as Hurricane Irma moves closer to the U.S. coast.

Latest RMS HWind Track Probability Analysis: Irma Shifts Further South and West Than Previous Forecasts

23:30 UTC  Thursday, September 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The RMS HWind team based in Tallahassee have released their latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts. This analysis, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC today Thursday, shows that Irma’s projected path has shifted further south and west than the previous forecasts. The highest probabilities now run through southeastern Florida (as shown by the shaded data), with Miami having a nearly 60 percent chance of the storm passing within 50 nautical miles of the city.

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Gearing Up for Irma: Using RMS Modeling to Generate Potential Loss Estimates

23:30 UTC  Wednesday, September 6

Tom Sabbatelli, hurricane risk expert, RMS

Hot on the heels of Hurricane Harvey, Irma looks like it could be the second major landfall in the U.S. this season, as it currently moves towards the Caribbean as a category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds around 185 miles per hour (297 kilometers per hour).

As always, the RMS Event Response starts early in the life of tropical storms, to provide the latest commentary, following up with RMS HWind footprints as data becomes available and providing initial sets of stochastic event selections around 48 hours before landfall. RMS Event Response practices have been designed to best serve our clients and the industry as a whole, and speculation of industry losses whilst such uncertainty remains can be counterproductive. Clients can see full information on the RMS Event Response processes by reading the following document available on RMS Owl.

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