Category Archives: Wildfire

California Wildfire: Another Record-Breaking Year?

Memories of last year’s Wine Country fires in Northern California and the Thomas Fire in Southern California are top of mind as we look at the unfolding wildfire events across the state, especially the notable Carr Fire to the northwest of the city of Redding in Shasta County, with a population of around 92,000.

Initial observations show similarities to the Wine Country fires in terms of its speed and ferocity, as the Carr Fire spread rapidly overnight on Saturday, July 28, nearly doubling in size. As of 02:00 UTC on Thursday, August 2, the fire is reported to have burned about 121,000 acres (~49,000 hectares) — see figure one below, destroying 1,546 structures, damaging an additional 255 structures, and forcing the evacuation of 38,000 people, according to CAL FIRE and local officials.

Continue reading

EXPOSURE: Assigning a Return Period to 2017

This is a taster of an article published in the latest edition of EXPOSURE magazine. For the full article click here or visit the EXPOSURE website.

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (HIM) tore through the Caribbean and U.S. in 2017, resulting in insured losses over US$80 billion. Twelve years after Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (KRW), EXPOSURE asks if the (re)insurance industry was better prepared for its next “terrible trio” and what lessons can be learned.

Continue reading

EXPOSURE Magazine: Looking Back, Looking Forward

The latest edition of EXPOSURE is essential reading for risk professionals, as we look back at what can be learned from last year’s events and look forward to the future including new challenges faced by the global risk management community and new opportunities to capitalize on.

EXPOSURE offers a unique perspective with a clear mission “… to provide insight and analysis to help insurance and risk professionals innovate, adapt and deliver.” And with a new North Atlantic hurricane season nearly upon us, and memories of HIM (Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria) fresh in the industry’s collective consciousness, EXPOSURE talks to the industry and paints a picture of a mature, responsible insurance sector that managed HIM with certainty and confidence. Cyber has also demonstrated its potential as a global systemic risk, and EXPOSURE looks at how events such as an outage of a major cloud services provider could generate economic losses as high as Superstorm Sandy.

Continue reading

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario: An RMS View on Fire Following Earthquake Risk

New findings into the effect of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake originating from the 74 mile-long (119 kilometer) Hayward Fault in the California Bay Area, suggests that fire following earthquake alone could see more than 52,000 single-family homes burn. Earlier this month, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released new results for their HayWired scenario, a scientifically plausible magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault. The hypothetical HayWired earthquake occurs at 4:18 p.m. on April 18, 2018, the anniversary of the magnitude  7.8 earthquake which struck San Francisco in 1906. The mainshock ruptures the fault along its length for about 52 miles (83 kilometers). The impact of such an event on one of the most densely populated and interconnected areas of the U.S. West Coast — with a population of about seven million people — would be disruptive.

Continue reading

Southern California: Thomas Fire Loss Estimate and Mudslide Commentary

Thomas Fire Loss Estimate

RMS has produced estimates for the insured loss arising from the Thomas Fire that affected the Southern California counties of Ventura and Santa Barbara in December 2017. The estimate will fall between US$1 billion and US$2.5 billion, and includes loss caused by burn or smoke damage to personal, commercial, and industrial lines of business, along with insured loss from business interruption and additional living expenses. It excludes loss to automobile and agriculture lines of business and all damage related to the recent mudslides that impacted the same area. This estimate was calculated using RMS high-resolution exposure data and comparisons against historical fire damage, loss, and claim data.

Continue reading

California Wildfires: Exposure Impacted by the Thomas Fire

As the Thomas Fire continues to climb the list of the top twenty largest California wildfires for both acres burned and structures destroyed, many in the insurance industry are asking how this fire, in addition to the other burned areas across Southern California, will impact their portfolio. A critical element in understanding the industry impact, but also the significance for an individual book, is the insured value of the burned structures. The Thomas Fire, which at 60 percent containment at the time of publication is already the second largest fire in California history with a reported burn area of 272,000 acres (110,074 hectares), has affected several different communities with wide ranges of average insured value.

Continue reading

California Wildfires: Special Climate Conditions Drive Enhanced Risk

Satellite image taken on December 5, based on observations of visible, shortwave infrared, and near infrared light. Image Credit: NASA

Wildfires are once again raging across California, this time focused in the southern part of the state. Prior to the ignitions, weather forecasts called for a significant Santa Ana wind event from Monday (December 4) through Thursday evening (December 7), driven by a high-pressure system across the western United States. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center noted in their Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook valid for Monday, December 4, that, “A very strong surface pressure gradient… coupled with strong low-level northeasterly flow will easily support sustained offshore winds of 30-40 miles per hour (48-64 kilometers per hour) across parts of Ventura into Los Angeles counties beginning later this evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph (96-128 km/h) will be possible across the mountains/foothills of these counties where channeling and terrain effects can locally enhance the already strong flow, with gusts of 45-60 mph (72-96 km/h) likely at lower elevations.”

Continue reading

Wine Country Wildfires: Reconnaissance and Loss Estimate Update

Kevin Van Leer, senior product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

19:00 UTC Friday, October 27

Figure 1: A door frame of a destroyed home overlooks another neighborhood affected by the Wine Country wildfires (Image credit: RMS)

Accompanied by a CAL FIRE escort, on Monday, October 23, RMS reconnaissance experts visited areas affected by the Wine Country wildfires, with a focus primarily on the Tubbs Fire which caused destruction across the Northern California counties of Napa, Sonoma, and Lake. Based on this reconnaissance, RMS has now updated its loss estimate, benefiting from an additional review of the available damage information, plus a review of historical fire damage data.

Continue reading

California Wildfires: Latest Loss Estimates

Kevin Van Leer, senior product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

20:00 UTC Tuesday, October 17

Nearly ten days have passed since the first four wildfires spread rapidly in Northern California. As of Monday, October 16, over 10,000 firefighters battled 14 fires, principally in the wine-growing valleys north of San Francisco. Fires in Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Yuba, Butte, Fresno, Calveras, Orange and Nevada counties have burned about 213,000 acres (86,000 hectares), destroying about 5,700 structures and forcing the evacuation of over 100,000 people, according to CAL FIRE and local officials. Aerial photographs show whole neighborhoods in northern Santa Rosa destroyed, and a neighborhood of about 70 houses has been destroyed in east Santa Rosa. Reports on Monday, October 16 state that there are 41 recorded fatalities, and hundreds of people are missing.

Continue reading

California Wildfires: How Quickly Your World Can Change in 24 Hours

This week’s wildfires in Northern California are an example of how nature, weather, and environment combined into the perfect fire storm that no defense could have prevented. And, when an event like this happens and directly impacts your family and friends, resilience takes on a whole new meaning.

At RMS, we are used to thinking about the “what if” of catastrophic events such as the recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and cyberattacks. We are accustomed to working with our clients, public agencies, and city officials to think about how best to protect their communities from disasters, defining what defenses are needed to keep tragedy at bay, and how to “build back better” should an event happen. But this all comes into sharp focus when it affects people you know and love.

Continue reading