LONDON, U.K. - October 03, 2017 RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, today announced that Zurich Assurance Ltd. (ZAL), a major U.K. life insurer and part of the global Zurich Insurance Group, has licensed the RMS Longevity Model. ZAL will use the model to provide insights in a number of areas, including into Zurich’s liabilities arising from insurance products linked to pension funds, a key growth market for the firm.
Based on likely medical breakthroughs in the future, as well as projecting mortality trends from the past, the RMS model analyzes the complex interplay of factors expected to drive changes in life spans. By gaining a clearer understanding of this uncertainty, ZAL will be able to better manage financial risks through external risk transfer.
Simon Johnson, chief actuary for Zurich Assurance, said: “There has been a lot of recent discussion about a possible slowdown in improvements in longevity, which shows how much uncertainty there can be, even over a short period of time. We’ve partnered with RMS because their model doesn’t just look through the rear view mirror, but combines statistical techniques with the latest insights from medical research to show how longevity may change in the future, for example due to socio-economic, lifestyle and medical factors. We are pleased to be working with RMS as we continue to expand our innovative longevity risk transfer solutions for U.K. pension schemes.”
Because it includes forward-looking medical-based insights, and does not rely solely on projecting historical mortality trends into the future, the RMS model offers a more realistic analysis of future lifespans than typical longevity models. It anticipates future medical advances such as stem-cell therapies and anti-ageing science in addition to projecting the impact of changing attitudes towards personal health and fitness.
Commenting on the developing relationship with Zurich, managing director for RMS LifeRisks®, Sofia Ben El Attar, said: “Over the last year, we have supported Zurich’s longevity experts as they adopted the RMS modeling framework to support their view of longevity risk. Right across the market, we’re seeing growing interest in the way our model’s analysis, grounded in the real-world drivers of mortality improvement, is giving clients the necessary insights to manage future liabilities in line with their risk appetites.”
The RMS Longevity Model was originally developed for the life insurance and reinsurance sectors. It employs stochastic simulations along with detailed future longevity scenario analyses in real world terms that can be understood by senior decision-makers outside of modeling specialisms.
Notes to Editors
The RMS U.K. Longevity Model was developed by a team including experts in epidemiology, mathematical biology, genetics, biostatistics, financial engineering, public health policy and medical science.
London, UK – 23rd Nov, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, collaborated with Willis Re Securities and Securian Financial to launch the new La Vie Re Limited (Series 2020-1) mortality catastrophe bond providing US$100m of reinsurance protection for Minnesota Life Insurance Company, a Securian Financial affiliate. RMS acted as the modeling agent on the cat bond transaction, providing a view of the risk covered by the bond to investors. RMS used its suite of excess mortality and morbidity models, covering infectious disease pandemics, terrorism, earthquakes, and other perils, including a contribution to the expected loss from the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering the U.S., this is the first indemnity 144A excess mortality bond that models the cedants’ portfolio on a loss ratio basis. The notes being issued by La Vie Re were launched to cat bond investors, and the full US$100m principal was achieved with a coupon price of 2.85%. Jin Shah, Client Director, RMS, said: “Investors have warmly welcomed Securian Financial as a new sponsor to the ILS market. Likewise, RMS is pleased to support another new issuer secure reinsurance protection from the ILS market with a novel structure and trigger. Using our life risk modeling capabilities, RMS developed an indemnity trigger on loss ratios and supported investors’ understanding of the risk, especially on the contribution from the current COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic outlooks reflect the latest research on vaccine availability, efficacy and distribution, and how this may mitigate the impact of a second, winter wave of COVID-19 infections threatening regions where strict social distancing measures have been relaxed. It was a pleasure to collaborate with Securian Financial and Willis Re Securities and it’s great to see the ILS market continue to support innovation in the market.”
Newark, CA – November 4, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Zeta to be between US$3 and US$5 bn. The estimate includes losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) of between US$200m and US$300m. U.S. insured loss estimates for Hurricane Zeta (US$ bn): Wind + Surge NFIP Total 2.8 - 4.7 0.2 -0.3 3.0 - 5.0 This estimate includes wind and storm surge losses across the impacted states, including Louisiana and Mississippi, based on analysis of RMS ensemble footprints in Version 18.1 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Model. RMS ensemble footprints are reconstructions of Zeta’s hazards that capture the uncertainties surrounding observed winds and storm surge. Losses associated with inland flooding are expected to be negligible, due to Zeta’s fast forward speed post-landfall, which kept high rainfall totals to isolated areas. The RMS estimate includes a 5% reduction in insured onshore losses due to the cumulative impacts of Hurricane Sally, which damaged some of the same region earlier this season. “We do expect some overlap between Zeta and Sally as the industry settles losses from these two events, but not to the degree of Delta and Laura a few weeks ago. Our Development Team found that approximately 20% of zip codes impacted by Zeta were also impacted by Sally, particularly at lower wind speeds. The overlap in the worst-affected areas of these two storms appears to be minimal. Thus, we expect a smaller loss reduction factor compared to the Delta and Laura events, largely attributed to structures in the overlapping region that sustained some, but not total damage from Sally, followed by additional damage from Zeta,” said Jeff Waters, Senior Product Manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. Losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, along with post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled sources of loss. RMS expects most insured losses will be from residential lines. “Power outages and treefall-driven impacts were two key factors in Zeta. The storm’s fast forward speed brought damaging winds well inland, particularly in areas with an abundance of trees, including metro Atlanta. This, combined with already saturated soil conditions, led to one of the most significant power outages of the season. Some fallen trees also directly damaged buildings and vehicles. We expect these factors to amplify insured losses.” said Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development. The estimate also includes losses to the NFIP in the range of US$200 million to US$300 million. NFIP losses were derived using the RMS view of NFIP exposure based on 2019 policy-in-force data published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Version 18.1 North Atlantic Hurricane Models. In Mexico, RMS estimates insured losses from Zeta to be minimal. However, consistent with previous impactful tropical cyclone events this season, overall insured losses constitute a fraction of the total economic losses, particularly in Mexico which has significantly lower rates of insurance take-up compared to the U.S. Additionally, RMS estimates insured losses to offshore platforms, rigs, and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico to not exceed US$500m from wind and wave-driven damages. While platforms in the Central Gulf of Mexico are built with higher deck heights to negotiate wave hazard, Zeta exposed a significant number of state lease platforms to high winds and waves along the Louisiana coast. Offshore losses are based on the October 2020 vintage of the RMS Offshore Platform Industry Exposure Database. Zeta made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana on Wednesday, October 28, 2020 as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At landfall, Zeta produced sustained winds of 110 mph (177 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center. Informed by a suite of real-time observational data sources, RMS HWind products estimated comparable winds at landfall. Consistent with several previous events this season, the landfall location and timing were well forecast by the HWind forecasting products more than 72 hours before landfall. “Despite encountering cooler waters and strong wind shear in its approach, Zeta managed to intensify before making landfall in Louisiana, nearly achieving major hurricane status. The storm’s fast forward motion–common for events that occur later in the season–reduced material water-driven impacts along the Gulf coast. However, that rapid movement brought hurricane-force winds well inland before Zeta finally weakened. In this unprecedented 2020 season, Zeta is another reminder that the season is far from over,” said Pete Dailey, Vice President, Model Development. Hurricane Zeta was the twenty-seventh named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, the eleventh hurricane, and the sixth U.S. landfalling hurricane of this extremely active season. Zeta was the eleventh named storm to make landfall in the contiguous U.S. so far in 2020, and a record-breaking fifth named storm of 2020 to make landfall in Louisiana. One month remains in the Atlantic hurricane season, ending officially on November 30. RMS industry loss estimates for landfalling U.S. hurricanes are comprehensive, reflecting modeled and non-modeled impacts from all major drivers of damage, including wind, storm surge, and inland flooding. ENDS The technology and data used in providing the information contained in this press release are based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. 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NEWARK, CA – October 27, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, announces the appointment of Patrick (Pat) McCarthy as Executive Vice President of Sales and Client Development, with immediate effect. Pat will lead this global organization for RMS, and brings a successful track record of delivering meaningful innovations and high-value solutions to some of the world’s most revered enterprises. Pat joins RMS from SAP, where most recently he was Senior Vice President and General Manager of SAP’s Ariba and Fieldglass businesses, focused on enterprise supply chain optimization and risk reduction. He also supported customers as they moved from legacy solutions to SaaS, always with an eye on value creation. Pat had been at SAP for 15 years in various senior roles including as COO for a large part of the US business, the Midwest Market Unit. Prior to SAP, Pat spent seven years at Oracle in various leadership roles spanning sales, industry, and solution roles in its JD Edwards and PeopleSoft businesses. Pat started his career with ten years at Frito-Lay and Pepsi-Co, where he held several management roles. Pat will report directly to RMS CEO, Karen White. Karen White, Chief Executive Officer at RMS, said: “Pat is joining at an exciting and challenging time in our industry and at RMS. He is exceptionally strategic and has earned his stellar reputation for bringing mission-critical innovations and solutions to global customers. Pat’s impressive approach to deeply understanding the markets and enterprise customers he serves, with an eye on helping them to innovate and on their business outcomes, is aligned with RMS’s mission to be a strong strategic partner for our customers. Pat’s formidable experience supporting global customers as they leveraged leading-edge technology and solutions to advance their businesses will be a great asset to RMS and the customers we serve.” Pat McCarthy added: “I’m very excited to be joining RMS as it’s an honor to work for a company so focused on building resilience into businesses and economies. For 30 years, RMS’s science and models have been the most trusted view of risk in the industry. It’s more important now than ever before that clients have access to the best modeling science and platforms, helping them drive business results that exceed their expectation. I’m pleased to be leading a team that continues to leverage our core strengths and simultaneously maps out a future with our clients that leverages innovations and the latest science as we tackle the future of risk.”