NEWARK, Calif. - July 10, 2017 RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, today announced a substantial expansion of its suite of modeling solutions for the Asia-Pacific region. New models include the RMS® South Korea Typhoon Model and the RMS® Taiwan Typhoon Model, adding to the existing typhoon models in the region, for Japan and China. For analyzing seismic risk, the Version 17 update includes four new models: the RMS® Vietnam Earthquake Model, the RMS® Singapore Earthquake Model, the RMS® Malaysia Earthquake Model and the RMS® Thailand Earthquake Model, which sit alongside earthquake risk models for seven other major economies in the region.
Mohsen Rahnama, RMS chief risk modeling officer, said “the scope of new models our teams are bringing to the Asia-Pacific market is unprecedented, and RMS is now able to offer typhoon and earthquake risk analysis across multiple countries in the region, enabling clients to grow and diversify their portfolios with confidence, using the market-leading science and analytics for which RMS is known.”
The most sophisticated typhoon models for South Korea and Taiwan on the market
The new RMS South Korea and Taiwan Typhoon Models give clients the analytics needed for improved risk selection and pricing, offering a comprehensive view of risk using the latest science to represent the full spectrum of severe storms that could bypass or make landfall. In addition to wind, typhoon flood risk is explicitly modeled by RMS in these territories – as it now is in Japan – including rainfall-driven inland flooding as well as coastal storm surge – all modeled at a high spatial resolution. The new RMS models help clients to identify the most profitable locations for writing new business, and to determine which areas are driving losses, with the tail risk from typhoon-driven flooding reflected in the models robustly. This ensures clients can analyze the vast majority of potential losses at longer return periods, and so calculate their capital requirements and reinsurance needs more confidently.
The models also allow for a highly granular differentiation of building vulnerability, reflecting different heights and construction types, with unique insights on the local insurance market and historical losses based on extensive RMS collaboration with local insurers on the ground.
“We have used all our experience and expertise from tropical cyclone modeling across the globe to develop these new models for South Korea and Taiwan,” said Rahnama. “Although non-life premium growth in these territories has been strong, penetration remains low and this is a significant opportunity for insurers and reinsurers to bridge this protection gap, if they have the most robust understanding of the risk. RMS is now providing that.”
RMS’ typhoon modeling for the western North Pacific also includes China & Hong Kong, Japan and Guam, in addition to Taiwan and South Korea.
State-of-the-art view of seismic hazard across Southeast Asia to differentiate risk precisely
RMS’ heavy investment in modeling solutions for Asia-Pacific also includes four new earthquake models for Southeast Asia: in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam – which join existing models for the Philippines and Indonesia, meaning that RMS now models earthquake risk across six countries in Southeast Asia. These will enable clients to accurately assess portfolio accumulations, reinsurance capacity, capital requirements, and the risk to large accounts, because the correlation and diversification of risk across and between countries can now be viewed consistently throughout this fast-growing region. This capability will help firms achieve strategic growth objectives.
There are large variations in earthquake risk in Southeast Asia, a region which is developing and urbanizing rapidly. The new and updated models will allow clients writing business there to price with greater confidence by capturing the differences in seismic risk, building types and exposure concentrations. The RMS Southeast Asia Earthquake Models include an assessment of building characteristics, such as height, and the type of soil on which they are constructed, and incorporate over 1,000 country-specific vulnerability functions to differentiate their impact on potential losses.
Rahnama added: “With Southeast Asia among the fastest developing regions in the world, there is a huge opportunity for our clients to underwrite this increasing exposure if they can accurately represent potential future losses from individual risks to treaty reinsurance. These new earthquake models will help them to do this. They can use the same view of risk for portfolio and accumulation management, so safely expanding their business. Together with our other regional earthquake models for Taiwan, China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, our clients now have the deepest insights into seismic risk across the Asia-Pacific region.”
The release of new typhoon and earthquake models for the Asia-Pacific region further demonstrates RMS’ strategic focus on helping clients close the coverage gap and take advantage of the region’s growth. It follows on from the addition in March 2017 of agricultural risk models for India and China to its growing line of emerging risks models. Furthermore, RMS is currently developing a flood model for India which will help (re)insurers manage high losses caused by both river and pluvial flooding from intense rainfall which, as Mumbai showed in 2005 and Chennai in 2015, is a major problem in principal cities. This is due to recent urban growth, which exacerbates flood risk, and higher levels of insurance penetration. This fully probabilistic flood model for India is due for release next year.
Newark, CA – December 15, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates insured losses from the record-breaking western U.S. wildfires this season will be between US$7.0 and US$13.0 billion. These losses reflect estimates as of December 1, 2020 and represent an update from the previously estimated losses from fires up to September 20, 2020. The ignition of the highly damaging Glass Fire and additional spread of the CZU and LNU Complex Fires represent the most notable activity in California since September 20. RMS insured losses represent estimates from major wildfires in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado at December 1, 2020: Region Insured Losses (USD $ bn) as of 1 December, 2020 Northern California Oregon and Washington Colorado 5.0 - 9.0 1.0 - 3.0 Up to 1.0 The RMS estimate includes losses from property damage, including evacuation and smoke damage, business interruption (BI), and additional living expenses (ALE) across residential, commercial, and industrial lines. Smoke and evacuation are expected to be significant contributors to losses for the wildfires this season, contributing about 20 percent of losses in California and Colorado and about 35 percent in Oregon and Washington. The estimate also accounts for notable post-event loss amplification (PLA) from property damage (25 to 30 percent) and business interruption/ALE (up to 100 percent or greater). The RMS loss estimate is based on detailed modeling of fire spread, ember accumulations, and smoke dispersion of the fires utilizing the U.S. Wildfire High-Definition (HD) Model, part of the North America Wildfire HD Model suite, released in February, 2019. The model covers the entire contiguous U.S. and explicitly simulates ember and smoke to support detailed analysis of the impact of a wildfire beyond historical fire perimeters. The model’s findings were supported by Damage Inspection Specialist (DINS) damage surveys for California Fires, published damage reports from federal and respective state agencies for the Oregon, Washington, and Colorado fires, and the RMS U.S. Wildfire Industry Exposure Database. Michael Young, Vice President, Product Management said: “2020 represents the most destructive fire season on record, in terms of burn area in California. Since August, 69 major fires that exceeded 1,000 burned acres each, have burned so far. Five of the six largest ever California wildfires have occurred in 2020, with over 4.4 million acres burned in total to date. While fires earlier in the season were dominated by ignitions sparked by the intense lightning storm in August, extreme wind-driven fires dominated the last few months. A similar phenomenon resulted in record-breaking fires in Oregon as well this season, with over 20 major fires driven by extreme winds, burning more than 1.2 million acres so far. In October, Colorado experienced its three largest destructive fires with more than 24 major fires burning 850,000 acres in total. Rajkiran Vojjala, Vice President, Model Development said: “This wildfire season reaffirms the growing catastrophic nature of this peril. Wildfire risk is clearly evolving, not only in California, but also in other states, as we observed in Oregon and Colorado. While changing climate patterns have significantly influenced the record-breaking fires this season, several other factors also profoundly affected the ignition potential and expected losses from these events in different ways. Most notable amongst them are the Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) measures undertaken by utilities, preparedness and response of firefighters in Northern California despite COVID-19 challenges, and recent legislative actions governing wildfire claims settlement such as the California Senate Bill 872. RMS is currently engaged with various stakeholders in evaluating these factors and understanding their impact on the emerging risk profile of this peril as part of its wildfire modeling agenda.” END The technology and data used in providing this information is based on the scientific data, mathematical and empirical models, and encoded experience of scientists and specialists. As with any model of physical systems, particularly those with low frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic events may differ from the results of simulation analyses. RMS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL RESPONSIBILITIES, OBLIGATIONS AND LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF, INCLUDING ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL RMS (OR ITS PARENT, SUBSIDIARY, OR OTHER AFFILIATED COMPANIES) BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO ANY DECISIONS OR ADVICE MADE OR GIVEN AS A RESULT OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS INFORMATION OR USE THEREOF.
London, UK – 23rd Nov, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, collaborated with Willis Re Securities and Securian Financial to launch the new La Vie Re Limited (Series 2020-1) mortality catastrophe bond providing US$100m of reinsurance protection for Minnesota Life Insurance Company, a Securian Financial affiliate. RMS acted as the modeling agent on the cat bond transaction, providing a view of the risk covered by the bond to investors. RMS used its suite of excess mortality and morbidity models, covering infectious disease pandemics, terrorism, earthquakes, and other perils, including a contribution to the expected loss from the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering the U.S., this is the first indemnity 144A excess mortality bond that models the cedants’ portfolio on a loss ratio basis. The notes being issued by La Vie Re were launched to cat bond investors, and the full US$100m principal was achieved with a coupon price of 2.85%. Jin Shah, Client Director, RMS, said: “Investors have warmly welcomed Securian Financial as a new sponsor to the ILS market. Likewise, RMS is pleased to support another new issuer secure reinsurance protection from the ILS market with a novel structure and trigger. Using our life risk modeling capabilities, RMS developed an indemnity trigger on loss ratios and supported investors’ understanding of the risk, especially on the contribution from the current COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic outlooks reflect the latest research on vaccine availability, efficacy and distribution, and how this may mitigate the impact of a second, winter wave of COVID-19 infections threatening regions where strict social distancing measures have been relaxed. It was a pleasure to collaborate with Securian Financial and Willis Re Securities and it’s great to see the ILS market continue to support innovation in the market.”
NEWARK, CA – October 27, 2020 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling company, announces the appointment of Patrick (Pat) McCarthy as Executive Vice President of Sales and Client Development, with immediate effect. Pat will lead this global organization for RMS, and brings a successful track record of delivering meaningful innovations and high-value solutions to some of the world’s most revered enterprises. Pat joins RMS from SAP, where most recently he was Senior Vice President and General Manager of SAP’s Ariba and Fieldglass businesses, focused on enterprise supply chain optimization and risk reduction. He also supported customers as they moved from legacy solutions to SaaS, always with an eye on value creation. Pat had been at SAP for 15 years in various senior roles including as COO for a large part of the US business, the Midwest Market Unit. Prior to SAP, Pat spent seven years at Oracle in various leadership roles spanning sales, industry, and solution roles in its JD Edwards and PeopleSoft businesses. Pat started his career with ten years at Frito-Lay and Pepsi-Co, where he held several management roles. Pat will report directly to RMS CEO, Karen White. Karen White, Chief Executive Officer at RMS, said: “Pat is joining at an exciting and challenging time in our industry and at RMS. He is exceptionally strategic and has earned his stellar reputation for bringing mission-critical innovations and solutions to global customers. Pat’s impressive approach to deeply understanding the markets and enterprise customers he serves, with an eye on helping them to innovate and on their business outcomes, is aligned with RMS’s mission to be a strong strategic partner for our customers. Pat’s formidable experience supporting global customers as they leveraged leading-edge technology and solutions to advance their businesses will be a great asset to RMS and the customers we serve.” Pat McCarthy added: “I’m very excited to be joining RMS as it’s an honor to work for a company so focused on building resilience into businesses and economies. For 30 years, RMS’s science and models have been the most trusted view of risk in the industry. It’s more important now than ever before that clients have access to the best modeling science and platforms, helping them drive business results that exceed their expectation. I’m pleased to be leading a team that continues to leverage our core strengths and simultaneously maps out a future with our clients that leverages innovations and the latest science as we tackle the future of risk.”