NEWARK, Calif. - August 19, 2015 A decade after Hurricane Katrina caused $41 billion in property and casualty insurance losses, the most expensive catastrophe ever experienced by the global insurance industry, rising sea levels are driving up expected economic and insurance losses from hurricane-driven storm surge in coastal cities across the United States, according to new analysis by RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk management firm.
RMS assessed risk in six U.S. coastal cities to determine how losses from storm surge, defined as wind-driven coastal flooding, are expected to change through 2100.
By 2100, the sea-level rise near New Orleans is expected to be greater than 1.3 meters (4.3 feet), increasing the chance of catastrophic citywide flooding by more than four times unless further improvements are made to raise flood defences by an equivalent height.
“Looking forward, New Orleans is faced with a double-whammy. The land on which the city is built is sinking, even faster than the sea levels are rising,” said Dr. Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer at RMS. “As a result, the rise in flood heights is much faster than at any other city along the U.S. coast.”
However, RMS analysis shows that, due to significant investments in improved flood defences and reduced exposures, the annual chance of a storm surge today causing at least $15 billion in economic loss – the amount caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – is currently much lower in Orleans Parish than for cities such as Miami, New York and Tampa.
The study shows that currently, Tampa faces the highest risk among the six cities included in the study, with a 1-in-80 annual chance of experiencing a $15 billion storm surge loss. Miami faces a 1-in-125 chance, New York a 1-in-200 chance and New Orleans a 1-in-440 chance.
RMS models show those likelihoods are expected to increase greatly over time – by up to 350 percent in some cities by 2100. The chance of a storm surge event causing at least $15 billion in economic losses, using today’s dollar values and exposures, in 2100 rises to 1-in-30 in Tampa, 1-in-30 in Miami, 1-in-45 in New York and 1-in-315 in New Orleans.*
Chance that an event will cause at least $15 billion in economic losses from storm surge in a given year, according to RMS modeling. All dollar amounts are in 2015 dollars.
*Figures for New Orleans are calculated on the assumption that flood defences are raised in step with water levels.
Another way to demonstrate storm surge risk over time is to look at changing economic losses at the 100-year return period – the standard metric used by the global insurance industry to calculate the cost of risk.
According to RMS models, economic storm surge losses at the 100-year return period in New York are $9 billion today – meaning there is a one percent chance of at least that amount of losses occurring in a given year. By 2100, the figure more than doubles to $23 billion. For comparison, Superstorm Sandy in 2012 caused just over $15 billion in losses from storm surge in the city of New York.
Similarly large increases in 100-year return period surge losses were found for Tampa and Miami. There is a one percent chance that Tampa will experience at least $17 billion in economic storm surge losses this year. In 2100, that number rises to $25 billion. Miami’s 100-year surge losses rise from $13 billion today to $33 billion in 2100.
100-year return period storm surge losses – the economic loss that has a one percent chance of being exceeded in any given year – according to RMS modeling. All dollar amounts are in 2015 dollars.
“Hurricane Katrina was the first time in decades that more than 50 percent of losses from a hurricane resulted from storm surge,” said Muir-Wood. “Katrina can be seen as a milestone in the long-term shift from ‘wind’ to ‘water’ as the main driver of hurricane loss. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy had more than 60 percent of its losses caused by storm surge flooding.”
Due to sea-level rise, by 2100 storm surge is expected to generate more than half of the economic losses that result from hurricane in the U.S. across hurricane-exposed states.
“This analysis does not take into account the potential further impact of changes in hurricane frequency and severity that may also occur over this time, but for which there is as yet no scientific consensus,” said Muir-Wood.
Newark, Calif. – May 7, 2021 – At its annual Exceedance conference this week, RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, demonstrated the benefits (re)insurance customers are experiencing by moving to RMS Risk Modeler™, the cloud-based risk modeling application running on the RMS open cloud platform, Risk Intelligence™. Risk Modeler, a next-generation cloud-based modeling application, is designed to meet the complex needs of risk analysts and cat modelers at scale. Risk Modeler enables real-time risk analytics and unified, high-performance execution of RiskLink models and High-Definition (HD) simulation models. Designed with a deep understanding of customer requirements and leveraging the latest technological innovations, Risk Modeler easily integrates with other on-premise applications as well as other cloud applications through open APIs and export services, giving customers greater flexibility and choice. This week at Exceedance, the industry has heard from RMS customers about the advantages they are gaining by adopting Risk Modeler to help manage their risk portfolios. Gallagher Re, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, and Unipol spoke during the conference keynotes about their experiences with Risk Modeler to date. Howden Group also shared their insights on the benefits of Risk Modeler. Neil Bramley, analytics executive, Gallagher Re, “Gallagher was keen to take advantage of the SaaS Solution, pushing the technology harder and faster, leveraging the benefits and scale of secure cloud computing to ultimately create tangible advantage and upsides for our clients. Risk Modeler helped us grow our analytical capability tremendously and our usage stats are through the roof compared to last year, with the added benefit of zero downtime whenever our divisions are looking to access new functionality and solutions.” Gian Luca De Marchi, group chief risk officer, Unipol Gruppo S.p.A., “Risk modeling through the Risk Modeler application allows us to run portfolio analyses and to support risk management assessments for risk profiling, risk monitoring, capital allocation, and optimal risk transfer. Now, the RMS models could help us in moving to an internal model, reducing the gap between economic capital and regulatory capital, and provide robust support in meeting regulatory requirements in particular in relation to stress tests.” David Flandro, managing director, Head of HX Analytics, Howden Group, “Risk Modeler together with RMS’s trusted science is an important part of our analytics ecosystem that helps Howden provide a differentiated service to our clients and partners. The SaaS delivery and API-based development framework is well positioned to help service our digital-first vision with distinction.” Alexander Hanks, executive director, head of actuarial & analytics, Price Forbes & Partners Ltd, “We worked with RMS as early adopters, making full use of Risk Modeler’s API first development approach to fully integrate modeling with our own cloud tools, switching off RiskLink and RiskBrowser in the process. Gone are the days of manually working with spreadsheets, copying and pasting and relying on manually re-running modeling of jobs. The automation work has taken manual time-consuming tasks away and we're able to spend much more time on interpreting modeling results and providing deeper insights to our clients.” Speaking at the conference, RMS CEO, Karen White, said, “When RMS launched Risk Modeler 2.0 in 2020, more customers started on their cloud migration with us. We are seeing more momentum in the industry for digital first strategies. Today, insurers, reinsurers, and brokers from every major global geographic region are on the RMS platform. Leveraging leading models, technology, and the cloud to gain greater risk insights helps them to avoid surprises, confidently deploy more capital, and potentially develop new products and new business models.”
Newark, Calif. – May 6, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, announced new innovations to ExposureIQ™ on the Risk Intelligence platform, including real-time catastrophe event visualizations and more powerful reporting. RMS also unveiled new capabilities to allow cross-portfolio accumulations across reinsurance and insurance workflows. ExposureIQ is an innovative, cloud-based exposure management application designed to help portfolio managers gain deeper insights into their books, scaling to millions of locations, enabling easy discovery of hotspots, diversification, and portfolio re-balancing. The application provides access to exposure information which leverages events and footprints from RMS Event Response and RMS’s unique HWind real-time forecasting capabilities, to help gain a quicker and more accurate assessment of potential losses before, during, and after an event. Real-time analysis and insight into portfolios allow for alignment with a company’s risk appetite, exposing threats and opportunities within their portfolio. The latest ExposureIQ release provides powerful reporting with an in-app dashboard that allows portfolio analysis across the most critical building criteria, allowing customers to understand how varying geocoding resolutions impact results as well as understanding which building occupancies and construction types are driving their losses. This advanced reporting functionality speeds up analysis and empowers portfolio managers to make faster, better-informed decisions. ExposureIQ is now the only application in the market to provide near real-time event visualization through a powerful new mapping module that integrates RMS Event Response and RMS HWind data. There’s no longer a need for customers to download and upload data to their system. Customers can now automatically access the latest event data, visualize events against exposures, and run accumulations – all within the application on a near real-time basis. At its annual Exceedance Conference, RMS demonstrated how ExposureIQ will expand on these capabilities to allow customers to run accumulations across both their insurance and reinsurance books of business. It will enable users to easily build structures that represent business hierarchies in an intuitive way. For the first time, customers will be able to run accumulations across portfolios and across cedents all in one application and leverage the RMS rich data catalog derived from our market-leading model science. Speaking at the annual RMS Exceedance conference, RMS executive vice president, product, Cihan Biyikoglu, said: “Exposure management is one of the most important aspects in terms of overall business profitability and keeping business risk appetite in check. Real-time exposure information such as wind forecasting from RMS Event Response gives customers the insights and control they need during critical points before, during, and after an event. The inclusion of cross-portfolio and cross-cedant accumulation in this release takes portfolio analytics to an unprecedented level. RMS understands the importance of making decisions based on quality data and insights. ExposureIQ brings together excellence in modeling with the flexibility, scale, and performance of the cloud to enable companies to develop a comprehensive view of their portfolio, optimize workflows, generate quality insights, and improve profitability.”
Newark, Calif. – May 5, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk modeling and solutions company, today announces new models. Speaking at the annual RMS Exceedance conference, Mohsen Rahnama Ph.D., chief risk modeling officer and executive vice president, said: “Risk is increasingly complex and connected. RMS is focused on providing the highest quality and most transparent, robust catastrophe models to the industry in this environment. With the new inland flood models and global flood hazard maps, we address an important set of regions where flood is the most important peril, and now cover 100 percent of flood premiums written worldwide. The significant update to the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models incorporates the latest science, and applies the learnings from 2017 onward.” Global Flood Coverage Key flood models and maps announced today at Exceedance 2021 include: A new inland flood model for China will be available in June 2021, concurrently on both RiskLink Version 21.0 and Risk Modeler, the RMS cloud platform for model execution and analytics. New inland flood models for New Zealand and Southeast Asia (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia) are available in the second half of 2021. Global flood hazard maps for over 200 countries will also be available in the second half of 2021. With this significant expansion, the RMS Global Flood Solution Suite now offers unmatched high-resolution flood model coverage and a unified approach to manage all global flood risk. These models and maps cover 100 percent of global property gross written premiums for flood. North Atlantic Hurricane Significant updates to the industry-leading North Atlantic Hurricane (NAHU) Models were also announced. The North Atlantic Hurricane Models Version 21.0 now include medium-term event rates, lessons learned from the 2017-2020 hurricane seasons, and a new alternative view of vulnerability for Florida Residential Lines. Importantly, RMS incorporated an alternative view of risk accounting for the Florida Building Code 25 percent Roof Replacement Rule, which was expanded from the High Velocity Hurricane Zone (HVHZ) to cover the entire state of Florida in the 2017 Florida Building Code. These key updates empower customers to make more informed rate setting decisions. Additional 2021 RMS Models RMS Canada Wildfire Model has been added to the RMS North America Wildfire Models Suite and is available now. Canada Wildfire has coast-to-coast coverage for Canada. Consistent with the RMS U.S. Wildfire Model, the Canada model incorporates ignition and spread of wildfires, ember footprints, smoke footprints and urban conflagration, as well as the financial model that include hours and distance clauses for representation of policy terms. RMS Cyber Solutions Version 5.1, available now, incorporates a new dashboard for underwriters providing powerful cyber underwriting analytics and rich data covering cyber incidents and threats. RiskLink Version 21.0 RiskLink 21.0 will be available June 2021. All RiskLink models will be available concurrently on both RiskLink and Risk Modeler.