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Newark, Calif. - September 13, 2012  Risk Management Solutions (RMS) estimates that U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Issac’s wind and surge impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast will fall between USD$1−2 billion, excluding rainfall driven flood losses and all National Flood Insurance Program losses. This estimate includes the possibility of a small amount of loss stemming from so-called coverage leakage, i.e., losses caused by surge inadvertently paid out by wind-only policies.

"We've formulated our estimate using a blend of modeling tools, combined with our assessment of key areas of uncertainty and non-modeled losses – excluding flood," said Dr. Christine Ziehmann, director of Model Product Management at RMS. "The width of the range reflects some remaining uncertainties, including the variability and uncertainty around loss at very low wind speeds—mostly tropical storm strength—and, in particular, the uncertainty around coverage leakage of surge related losses into wind-only loss payments."

Hurricane Isaac made landfall in Louisiana on Tuesday, August 28 as a Category 1 strength hurricane, near the mouth of Lake Mississippi, then made a second landfall of the same intensity near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on Wednesday, August 29. The storm then continued to move northwest very slowly across Louisiana, was downgraded to a tropical storm later that day, and finally dissipated on Saturday, September 1, in Missouri.

A wide swath of strong winds, storm surge, and inland flooding were associated with Isaac, most notably across Louisiana and Mississippi, with further wind and rain damage affecting Arkansas. Inland flooding caused by heavy rainfall was one of the major concerns from Isaac due to the storm being large in size and moving extremely slowly. Louisiana in particular was hit hard by rain from Isaac, though Alabama and Missouri also experienced heavy rainfall.

"From a wind-damage perspective, Isaac made landfall in the same area where Katrina and also Gustav made landfall in 2005 and 2008, respectively," Dr. Ziehmann continued. "Both these previous events impacted the building stock and eradicated a large portion of very low-quality roofs and buildings, which could mean that the wind losses fall into the lower end of the modeled range."

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season has seen 14 tropical storms, with 7 strengthening to hurricane status.

  • Only one of these hurricanes has become a major hurricane – Hurricane Michael, which intensified into a Category 3 hurricane on September 6, but only maintained that status for 6 hours.
  • At this point (September 13) in 2012 the season is the second most active season (tied with 1936) since records began in 1851, in terms of the number of named storms. Only 2005 and 2011 had more named storms as of September 13.
  • Eight tropical storms formed in August, making August 2012 the most active August in terms of Atlantic basin tropical storm activity, tied with the 2004 season.
  • As of September 13, we are just over half way through the 2012 season, and on average, are currently in the most active month– September 10 is officially classed as the peak of the hurricane season.
  • Between 1950 and 2011 on average four tropical storms formed in September, with an average of five tropical storms forming in September between 1995 and 2011. (2004 had four tropical storms in September, and 2005 had five tropical storms in September—all of which strengthened to hurricanes.)

"Seasonal forecasts for 2012, issued at the beginning of August called for around 14 tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2012," continued Dr. Ziehmann. "The 2012 season is currently on track to exceed these forecasts, especially if September is typical of the 1995-2011 average."

A weak to moderate El Niño is forecast to develop during September, which has the potential to inhibit tropical storm development. However through the 2004 hurricane season a weak El Niño was prevalent, although there was still an above-average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes—the season closing with 14 tropical storms, nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes.

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RMS Launches New Climate Change Models

Newark, CA – March 22, 2021 – RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, today announced the forthcoming launch of a new suite of Climate Change Models to help customers assess the near and long term impacts of climate change on physical assets and their businesses, in order to make the best possible risk and financial decisions.   According to RMS CEO, Karen White, “Today there are no robust or consistent frameworks that can quantify the physical risks posed by catastrophes in a changing climate at the depth required.  The innovative suite of RMS Climate Change Models changes that, giving the market a powerful new set of tools. With increasing Board-level attention, stakeholder scrutiny, and regulatory pressure, businesses need to operationalize climate change analytics to make better decisions and enable better transparency. It is clear that the financial impacts of climate change are not solely a “future problem”. The increasing incidence of wildfires, floods and hurricanes mean that climate change insights need to be incorporated into financial decisions that are being made today, in parallel with long term strategic planning and meeting increasing regulatory, environmental, social and governance (ESG) and TCFD reporting requirements, and investor and customer demands. This necessitates a climate change framework and models fully consistent with today’s catastrophe risk analytics and one which addresses the challenges posed by physical climate change risk and its broad impact across all relevant time scales – from today through to the end of the century.” Most RMS models, including all major peril models, already incorporate the impact of climate change up until now – but more is required to meet the evolving and significant market needs. The new RMS Climate Change Models take our existing capabilities further with forward-looking predictive insights and analysis. The new Climate Change Models empower RMS’s economic modeling framework with the best climate science consensus, including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  The new models will be generally available in June for major peril models North Atlantic Hurricane, Europe Inland Flood and Europe Windstorm. Further models and geographies will follow this initial model suite launch. The RMS climate change solutions also include climate change specialist advisory and consulting expertise and regulatory, ESG and TCFD support.   The Climate Change Models address the perils most impacted by climate change and feature: Probabilistic modeling to capture events across different climate change scenarios The ability to adjust time horizons and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) A proprietary industry and economic exposure database to deliver more accurate and impactful climate change models Embeddable software which integrates into existing workflows to facilitate seamless and easy operationalization  Consulting and additional expertise supporting regulatory submissions and activities, and providing insights from these new models today   Commenting on the RMS climate change solutions, Eric Letourneau, SVP, Group Head of CAT Accumulation Management, QBE, said: “The insights on climate risk provided by RMS have enabled us to better understand climate-related risks and opportunities for our business, to report those insights to financial stakeholders, and to develop and test strategy for our business. We can embed these analytics in our business processes, confident that we have consistency with how we measure underwriting risk and capital requirements now and in the future.” The new RMS Climate Change Models, data, and analytics empower organizations to: Understand the impacts climate change may have on capital and assets today and in the future Price and manage risks to better reflect changing conditions Confidently communicate risks posed by climate change to all stakeholders Comply with regulatory submissions in an efficient and sustainable way RMS has been modeling natural catastrophe risk for the insurance industry for more than 30 years and has been leading research into the impact of climate change on catastrophic losses since RMS’s involvement in the 2007 4th IPCC Assessment Report.   You can learn more about RMS Climate Change solutions here:   https://www.rms.com/climate-change  

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March 17, 2021
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RMS Estimates that Total Insured Losses from the 2020 Western U.S. Wildfires Will Be Between US$7bn – US$13bn

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About RMS

Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) shapes the world’s view of risk for insurers, reinsurers, financial services organizations, and the public sector. We empower organizations to evaluate and manage global risk from natural and man-made catastrophes, including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, climate change, cyber, and pandemics.

RMS helped pioneer the catastrophe risk industry, and continues to lead in innovation by offering unmatched science, technology, and 300+ catastrophe risk models. Leaders across multiple industries can address the risks of tomorrow with RMS Risk Intelligence™ (RI), our open, unified cloud platform for global risk, which enables them to tap into RMS HD models, rich data layers, intuitive applications, and APIs.

Further supporting the industry's transition to modern risk management, RMS spearheaded the Risk Data Open Standard (RDOS), a new modern open standard data schema designed to be an extensible, flexible, and future-proof asset within modeling/analysis systems.

RMS is a trusted solutions partner, enabling effective risk management for better business decision-making across risk identification and selection, mitigation, underwriting, and portfolio management.

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