Dr. Tedros Adhonom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), has insisted that containment of COVID-19 is feasible, and must remain the top priority for all countries, but that there is not a one-size-fits-all approach. This was reiterated by Dr. Gaudenz Silberschmidt, director, health and multilateral partnerships – external relations at the WHO, who gave a keynote talk at the ReFocus 2020 conference in Las Vegas on March 3. This is the leading annual meeting for senior figures in the life insurance industry.
After his keynote, as an expert on pandemic risk modeling, I participated in a panel together with Dr. Silberschmidt and others, on the benefits of prevention. All the panelists, including myself, expressed support for this focus on containment, and the overall approach the WHO is taking in dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, especially in Iran where the WHO has sent an urgent mission.
Assessing the risks faced by the city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would go well beyond the norms of the insurance industry. On January 17, 2002, a large part of the city center was destroyed by an eruption of Mount Nyiragongo, about 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) to the north. Volcano hazard is not a significant risk factor for many towns and cities – and nor is Ebola. Goma is exceptional in being at risk from both.
Outbreaks of Ebola have occurred in the DRC sporadically in 1976, 1994, 2003, 2007 and 2012. The most recent outbreak started on August 1, 2018, and even with the infection of 2,500 and the deaths of more than 1,700, the Ebola virus is still not contained. Endemic hostilities in the DRC make it hard for health organizations to track contacts of those infected, and to operate treatment centers without fear of military attack. Health workers expose themselves daily to lethal infection – and should not be exposed also to armed assault. But they are – two health workers were killed in mid-July.