The first professionals on the stand in the Grenfell Tower Inquiry were the London Fire Brigade, quizzed on their lack of training around managing evacuation from the devastating tower block fire in North Kensington, West London on June 14, 2017. Coming soon, the inquiry’s focus will turn to the architects and fire engineers, the manufacturers of cladding material and the regulatory procedures for determining safety.
Yet, one actor conspicuously missing from this parade of experts is insurance.
You might think that insurance would, by now, be leading the agenda in calculating the fire risk to tower blocks and showing how mitigative action, such as removing or replacing flammable cladding, would directly convert into both lower risk and lower premiums. For this calculation around fire risk has the potential to drive other responses, including which buildings are too dangerous to be habitable.
Yet this calculation cannot come from empirical data on fire losses, as supports most actuarial fire pricing, because this fire is without precedent, at least in the U.K. Instead it will have to be the product of “large building” stochastic fire risk modeling.