Tag Archives: Science Magazine

Toward a Science of Cyber Risk

Why a “Science”? (Part One)

A new article, The Science of Cyber Risk: A Research Agenda has just been published in Science. A free, non-paywall version of this paper is available here. Written by a diverse team of 19 authors, including myself, it presents a concise argument for interdisciplinary research, to establish a scientific basis for risk analysis and management in the cyber security domain.

As a leading provider of cyber risk models for the (re)insurance industry, RMS is committed to advancing the state-of-the-art in the science of cyber risk. The proposed six category research agenda is of keen interest to RMS and we recommend this Science journal article to anyone who shares our interest in solving the hard problems.

In this the first of three blog posts, I’ll explore why we need a “science” and what difference it will make. The next two posts will feature case studies in interdisciplinary collaboration, including lessons from past successes and failures.

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Did Ridgecrest Increase the Chances of a Large Seismic Event?

Interest in the 160-mile-long Garlock Fault, the second-largest fault in California, has been piqued recently after a Los Angeles Times article about deformation on the Garlock Fault due to the Ridgecrest sequence of events in July 2019. Since the publication of this article, RMS has received information requests focused around two main points.

First, does RMS believe that Ridgecrest impacted the Garlock Fault (and possibly others), and has therefore increased the probability of a rupture there? Second, does RMS support the assumption from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that the most likely scenario is that the Ridgecrest quakes probably won’t trigger a larger earthquake, but have raised the chances of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or more on the nearby Garlock, Owens Valley, Blackwater and Panamint Valley faults over the next year. And how would RMS recommend that clients model and capture this increased risk?

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