As is usual in the weeks following a hurricane’s impact on land, much of the focus surrounding Hurricane Maria has now shifted away from estimating losses with models to surveying the actual damage and claims incurred. With the collection of claims and losses, evaluating the array of loss estimates published by catastrophe model vendors in Maria’s immediate aftermath will begin. Included in this array is the RMS best estimate of insured loss, a range between US$15 billion and US$30 billion.
Michael Young, Head of Americas Climate Model Product Management, RMS
The story of Hurricane Maria, the thirteenth named storm of the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, really started with landfall over Dominica on Tuesday, September 19 — as a category 5 hurricane. It was then Puerto Rico’s turn. As Maria approached, the system did weaken slightly during an eyewall replacement cycle, and made landfall on Wednesday, September 20, near Yabucoa, as a category 4 hurricane. It was the most intense landfalling hurricane for the island since the 1928 San Felipe Segundo Hurricane, with RMS HWind reporting maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour).
Peter Datin, senior principal modeler, RMS
Rajkiran Vojjala, vice president – Model Development, RMS
Last week, Hurricane Maria churned across Puerto Rico with the strongest winds to hit the island in over 80 years. Puerto Rico is home to more than 50 percent of the world’s leading pharmaceutical and life science companies, which operate around 80 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved manufacturing plants on the island. Therefore, the impact of Maria on the industrial line of business not only influences the overall losses experienced in the event, but critically has many ramifications for Puerto Rico’s long-term economic recovery.
09:30 UTC Monday, September 25
Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS
The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts for Hurricane Maria has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Sunday, September 24. This proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, to help deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.