In late 2005 I was on New Providence Island, Bahamas, producing
a map to show which properties around the island were within the storm surge
flood zone. The northern islands of the Bahamas had been battered by 19 feet (six
meters) of storm surge in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd and flooded again in 2004
Hurricanes’ Frances and Jeanne.
While wandering around the poorer, south side of Nassau, I came across a single-story building, probably a community center or clinic, with barred windows, on which was written “Hurricane Shelter”. It was sufficiently surprising that I even took (and kept) a photo – see below, for the “Hurricane Shelter” was only two to three feet above sea level. If people gathered at this shelter as a strong hurricane approached, they would be placing themselves in mortal danger from an accompanying storm surge.
Dorian looks set to pass over the northern Bahamas in the coming days as
potentially a Category 5 major hurricane, but forecasts regarding future U.S.
impacts remain significantly uncertain, with the latest guidance providing a
twist in the tale that no one anticipated a few days ago.
Understanding the Uncertainty: A Matter of Timing
The meteorological situation that Hurricane Dorian finds itself in is as fascinating as it is uncertain. Several days ago, Florida was bracing itself for potentially its third major hurricane landfall in as many years. Now, Dorian looks more likely to make landfall in the Carolinas, or, as some models increasingly suggest, it may recurve soon enough that is misses the U.S. entirely. So, why have the forecasts been so uncertain? It’s all to do with timing.