Little more than a week ago, I signed off my previous blog post, discussing storm Eleanor/Burglind, with the following thought:
As the number of minor windstorms impacting Europe this season grows, we are left to wonder how many more “near misses” can we experience before our luck runs out?
At the time, I further noted that:
- One-day-out, the forecasts for Friederike were trending towards lower and lower severities
- As an immature and fast-moving system, these forecasts were subject to high uncertainty
- Eventual losses would be very sensitive to gust speeds experienced in urban areas near to the forecast footprint, such as Rotterdam and Dortmund
In the week since this post, it has become clear that our lucky streak has already come to an end. Storm Friederike (also named David by Météo-France) intensified towards the upper end of the forecast severities in Benelux and Germany, bringing strong gusts to highly populated areas and producing significant insurance losses.