In my recent article in Reactions entitled Why Long-term NFIP Reform is a Must, I looked back at the flood events of 2018 through the lens of the need to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). I made the argument that the NFIP is not effectively covering communities at risk or supporting the development of a private market that support that same goal.
Looking at Hurricane Florence, its impacts exemplify the type of event from which our communities need to recover from by leveraging the NFIP and a more robust private market. Both North Carolina and South Carolina each broke records for the amount of rainfall caused by a tropical cyclone. While the flooding due to storm surge was significant in areas such as New Bern, the majority of the flood damage was driven by that record rainfall in the inland areas.
The areas most impacted had the lowest take-up rates for flood insurance – the take-up rate for NFIP policies is less than two percent in the inland counties of North Carolina and South Carolina, while take-up rates in most coastal counties generally range from 10 to 25 percent. As a result, RMS analysis found that Florence caused US$3 billion to US$6 billion in uninsured losses, or about 4-5 times the losses expected to be incurred by the NFIP.
I had the privilege of joining Property Casualty 360 for a Facebook Live video discussion last week, together with my colleague Wallace Hogsett, client manager at RMS. Danielle Ling, associate editor at PC360 was the host of the discussion, entitled “2018 Hurricane Season: Where Are We Now?”.
We began by providing a perspective on the impacts of this season’s hurricanes. The two big hurricane events to impact the U.S. in 2018 (so far) have obviously been Hurricanes Florence and Michael, but each possessed very different characteristics. Florence maintained Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) for around a week, before wind shear tempered it to a Category 1 as it made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on September 14. While many areas were subject to significant wind gusts and storm surge, Florence was primarily a flood event, causing historic rainfall and inland flooding throughout the Carolinas.
On the other end of the scale, Wallace stated how Michael was a classic intense hurricane — the most intense to make landfall in the U.S. since Andrew in 1992 — almost reaching Category 5 status upon its landfall in Mexico Beach on October 10. The scenes of structures reduced to their “slabs” with just their foundations left showed that this was primarily a wind and storm surge event. In total, damages stretched from the Florida Panhandle region through the Southeast and the Carolinas.
In the last month or so, two significant North Atlantic hurricane events have brought the latter half of the current hurricane season into sharp focus — and what marks these two events out was how different they were. With Hurricane Florence making landfall on September 14 in North Carolina, this event was one of the most intense storms to go above 30 degrees north in recent history.
It seems somehow fitting that a storm underwent rapid intensification today, the peak of the North Atlantic hurricane season. Indeed, as forecast, Florence grew impressively from a tropical storm to a powerful Category 4 major hurricane — as of 1600 UTC on Monday, September 10, — with maximum sustained winds near 130 miles per hour (195 kilometers per hour), according to data from a recent National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reconnaissance aircraft mission into the storm.
A ridge of high pressure is guiding Florence on a west-northwest to northwest path across the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas towards the southeastern U.S. Swells generated by Florence are already affecting Bermuda, with warnings of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
With each advisory, the chances of the storm missing the U.S. is rapidly narrowing. Most global models call for a landfall over the Carolinas as a major hurricane. Although the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) “cone of uncertainty” includes the possibility of landfall between South Carolina and southern Virginia, there has been a strong, consistent guidance that a landfall over North Carolina is the most likely scenario. RMS HWind now shows that the two cities with the highest probability of greatest impact are both in North Carolina: Jacksonville and Wilmington.