Japan continues to assess the extent of the damage caused by
Typhoon Hagibis, which made landfall near the Izu Peninsula in Shizuoka
Prefecture on Saturday, October 12. Current reports state that at least 66
people have been killed, dozens of people are missing, and hundreds are injured.
At this time, the worst impacted prefectures include Nagano, Saitama,
Shizuoka, and Fukushima.
However, the full extent of the damage is not expected to be known for several days as rescue operations and official damage assessments continue – rescuers cannot reach some areas due to high water levels. The Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, stated that there is no plan to slow rescue operations, with around 13,000 police, 66,000 firefighters and 31,000 Self-Defense Forces personnel involved. The numbers of structures and properties affected is predicted to rise.
of Thursday afternoon (October 10), Super Typhoon Hagibis remains a powerful
Category 4 equivalent hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 miles
per hour (240 kilometers per hour). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has described the storm as “violent” – its highest tropical cyclone classification.
Hagibis hit the headlines in recent days after it underwent one of the most rapid intensifications ever observed: its maximum sustained wind speeds intensified from 60 to 160 miles per hour in just 24 hours on October 6-7. According to media reports, only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Patricia in 2015, are known to have strengthened more quickly. Its peak wind speed of 160 miles per hour (258 kilometers an hour) is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Typhoon Faxai was the strongest landfalling typhoon to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004. Making two landfalls as it traveled across the Tokyo Bay, Faxai made a brief landfall over the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa prefecture in the Kanto region of Japan, just 35 miles (57 kilometers) south-southwest of Tokyo early morning local time on Monday, September 9.
It then tracked northeast to make a second landfall
over the city of Chiba (pop. ~979,000), Chiba prefecture, 20 miles (32
kilometers) east of Tokyo. Maximum sustained wind speeds at its landfalls were
equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Just four days after, RMS reconnaissance was in Chiba prefecture,
surveying the damage.
Power outages in Chiba Prefecture looked set to continue into the coming weeks as the region continues to recover from Typhoon Faxai. It was one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record in the seven prefectures of the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo and the strongest to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004.
Two Landfalls as Faxai Travels Across Tokyo Bay
Faxai made a brief landfall over the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa Prefecture in
the Kanto region of Japan, just 35 miles (57 kilometers) south-southwest of
Tokyo early morning local time on Monday, September 9. The center of the
typhoon then tracked northeast across Tokyo Bay and made a second landfall over
the city of Chiba (pop. ~979,000), Chiba Prefecture, Japan, 20 miles (32
kilometers) east of Tokyo.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Faxai had maximum sustained wind speeds of 102 to 106 miles per hour (165 to 170 kilometers per hour) at its landfalls, equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The first half of 2019 had been unusually quiet in the western
North Pacific tropical cyclone basin. Following the dissipation of the
strongest-ever February typhoon – Wutip, there were no subsequent typhoons
until Francisco reached Category 1 strength on August 4. A few days later,
Typhoon Lekima strengthened significantly on its approach towards the China coastline
and then became the strongest landfalling storm of the year so far.
Lekima Enters the Record Books
Typhoon Lekima made landfall in Wenling City, Zhejiang Province (pop. ~1.3 million), at 1:45 a.m. local time on Saturday, August 10, with an intensity equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). With two-minute sustained winds of 116 miles per hour (187 kilometers per hour) and a central pressure at landfall of 930 millibars, Lekima became the third strongest tropical cyclone to impact eastern China after Saomai in 2006 and Wanda in 1956.
Many of us in the catastrophe risk management industry actively help communities in need after natural disasters – through donations, working with organizations to promote resilience, or through on-the-ground assistance. Our intimate understanding of the power of these catastrophes makes us acutely aware of the need to act.
RMS and Build Change
Every year, a team of RMS employees and clients work together to help support our longstanding partner, Build Change, on how to ensure vulnerable communities benefit from safer housing, retrofitting and sound construction methods. The skills that both our employees and clients bring are very complementary to these tasks, and knowledge of risk modeling and analytics, and how to use this knowledge to develop resilience is highly valued.
Following successful visits to Haiti and Nepal in recent years, this year’s RMS Impact Trek visits the Philippines for the first time, with the team (including myself) on the ground in the country from March 17–25.
Build Change have been active in the Philippines since 2013. They have worked on a range of long-term projects from helping to rebuild schools, pre-disaster retrofitting of homes in poorer areas of Manila, through to training technicians in disaster-resistant construction skills in Guiuan in southeast Samar.
In September, Typhoon Mangkhut wrought a path of destruction across the western North Pacific, causing damage from Guam, to the Philippines, Hong Kong, and southern China. For Hong Kong, Mangkhut was the second strong typhoon to impact the region in consecutive years, following Typhoon Hato in 2017. Damage was extensive – according to local media, at least 500 homes and high-rise buildings in Hong Kong, including apartment complexes and office blocks, were severely damaged.
In the weeks following Mangkhut, RMS worked with the Insurance Authority (IA) – the independent insurance regulator for Hong Kong, to help provide (re)insurers in the region with some context and scientific analysis around this event. According to data from the insurers gathered by the IA, Typhoon Mangkhut caused total insured losses of HKD 3.5 billion (US$448 million) in Hong Kong. This figure, collected as at October 12, three weeks after Mangkhut’s landfall, represents losses reported by insurance and reinsurance companies in Hong Kong. With the loss information provided by the IA and using the RMS China and Hong Kong Typhoon Model, RMS estimated Mangkhut to have a return period of 30 to 40 years in Hong Kong.1
Many of us across the risk management industry actively help communities in need after natural disasters, through donations, working with organizations to promote resilience, or through on-the-ground assistance. Our intimate understanding of the power of these catastrophes makes us acutely aware of the need to act.
This is true for everyone here at RMS, where our values embrace the need to understand risk, build resiliency, and make an impact to help improve the lives of communities who live with the threat of natural disasters. One of the ways we live our values is through our annual RMS Impact Trek, where both RMS employees and our clients work with the social enterprise Build Change in some of the world’s most catastrophe-prone areas.
If you are an RMS client, I would like to extend an invitation to our annual RMS Impact Trek. This is the fourth year that we are sponsoring representatives from our clients to join RMS employees and Build Change so that their skills can be used to build stronger communities.
Images of total devastation from Typhoon Haiyan shocked the global community in 2013, and Haiyan still haunts the Philippines five years on. At 4.40 a.m. local time on Friday, November 8, 2013, the city of Guiuan (pop. ~52,000) on the island of Leyte, in the Eastern Visayas, Philippines, first experienced the full force of Typhoon Haiyan (Super Typhoon Yolanda) as it made landfall. The city’s mayor declared “100 percent damage.” A community found itself homeless as 10,008 structures in Guiuan were destroyed and 1,601 were partially damaged. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Haiyan’s one-minute sustained winds at 315 kilometers per hour (195 miles per hour) at landfall, and at the time, this unofficially made Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed based on wind speed.
Haiyan was a story of prolific intensification, starting life as an area of low pressure some 3,200 kilometers (2,000 miles) east-southeast from landfall just six days previously. Warmed by the Pacific, Haiyan was a tropical depression on November 3, tropical storm on November 4, and claimed typhoon status by November 5. Four days into monitoring, by November 6, the JTWC assessed Haiyan as the equivalent of a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). It continued to intensify before landfall.
This is my experience of Typhoon Mangkhut. I live in Tseung Kwan O in the New Territories, Hong Kong, some five miles (eight kilometers) east of downtown Hong Kong, and home to around 370,000 residents. Hong Kong, which ranks just above Luxembourg in terms of geographical area, is the fourth-most densely populated region in the world, with a population around 7.5 million. Because of so many people living in a small area, it is full of towers — Hong Kong as a city has the most skyscrapers in the world, with 317 towers taller than 150 meters (490 feet).
My home is also in a high-rise development, part of The Wings complex in Tseung Kwan O, which includes eight towers built around six years ago, with the towers rising to 41 stories. The towers overlook Junk Bay to the south, and is right next to the eastern end of the famous Victoria Harbor between Hong Kong Island and Kowloon.
My experience of Typhoon Mangkhut is similar to many residents — as of course, many of us do live in high-rise towers. The center of Mangkhut passed close by Hong Kong at a weekend, on Sunday, September 16, and on the day of the typhoon, we were acting on the official advice and all staying at home.