Category Archives: Risk Modeling

Cyber Risk Seminars Introduce New Solutions to Address Evolving Threat Landscape

During September, RMS ran a series of cyber risk seminars in London and New York. These half-day events coincided with the release of RMS Cyber Solutions version 4.0 and featured both RMS and industry experts discussing cyber risk and the opportunities for the cyber insurance industry.

At both events, the day kicked off with Dr. Andrew Coburn, senior vice president for RMS, examining recent developments within the cyber risk landscape by outlining the approach RMS takes to tracking and categorizing the wide range of evolving threat actor groups. He also proposed some key future trends, such as the potential impact of a “gloves-off” nation-state cyberattack and its implications for the cyber insurance industry.

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Typhoon Faxai: Walking in Its Tracks

Typhoon Faxai was the strongest landfalling typhoon to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004. Making two landfalls as it traveled across the Tokyo Bay, Faxai made a brief landfall over the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa prefecture in the Kanto region of Japan, just 35 miles (57 kilometers) south-southwest of Tokyo early morning local time on Monday, September 9.

It then tracked northeast to make a second landfall over the city of Chiba (pop. ~979,000), Chiba prefecture, 20 miles (32 kilometers) east of Tokyo. Maximum sustained wind speeds at its landfalls were equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Just four days after, RMS reconnaissance was in Chiba prefecture, surveying the damage.

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Reactions North America Awards: We’re in Good Company

On Thursday, September 26, a contingent from RMS attended the Reactions’ 2019 North America (Re)Insurance Conference and Awards in New York. It was such an enjoyable event and it was a great honor to receive the North America Risk Modeler of the Year award. To win a Reactions award, you not only needed to impress the panel of independent judges, you also need market approval. Thank you to the judges and to everyone who took the time to support us.

Karen White, chief executive officer for RMS, receives the Reactions North America Risk Modeler of the Year award

Alongside us were many of our clients and partners who were either award nominees or winners on that night, including North America Insurer, Specialty Reinsurer, ILS Investment Manager, and Consultancy of the Year. Congratulations to our clients gaining recognition for great work. We are proud to be in such good company!

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The Year of the Kitten

Almost three months ago we passed a remarkable record in catastrophe loss.

And yet no one seems to want to celebrate it.

No banner headlines in the newspapers. No speeches at the Monte Carlo Reinsurance Rendezvous.

The first half of 2019 generated the lowest catastrophe insurance loss for more than a decade. The estimates come in at: US$15 billion (Munich Re), US$19 billion (Sigma), or US$20 billion (Aon). In straight dollar terms, independent of any adjustment for inflation or exposure, this is lower than any year since 2006.

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Typhoon Faxai: Strongest Typhoon to Impact Greater Tokyo in Fifteen Years

Power outages in Chiba Prefecture looked set to continue into the coming weeks as the region continues to recover from Typhoon Faxai. It was one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record in the seven prefectures of the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo and the strongest to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004.

Two Landfalls as Faxai Travels Across Tokyo Bay

Typhoon Faxai made a brief landfall over the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa Prefecture in the Kanto region of Japan, just 35 miles (57 kilometers) south-southwest of Tokyo early morning local time on Monday, September 9. The center of the typhoon then tracked northeast across Tokyo Bay and made a second landfall over the city of Chiba (pop. ~979,000), Chiba Prefecture, Japan, 20 miles (32 kilometers) east of Tokyo.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Faxai had maximum sustained wind speeds of 102 to 106 miles per hour (165 to 170 kilometers per hour) at its landfalls, equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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EXPOSURE Magazine: Looking Ahead to the Next Ten Years

The year 2020 is just months away, and in the latest edition of EXPOSURE — the RMS magazine for risk management professionals, we consider some of the changes that the (re)insurance industry will have undergone in ten years’ time. Mohsen Rahnama, Cihan Biyikoglu and Moe Khosravy from RMS tackle the issues, examining the evolution of risk management, the drivers of technological change, and how all roads lead to a common, collaborative industry platform.

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Hurricane Dorian: Who Takes Responsibility for the Loss of Life?

In late 2005 I was on New Providence Island, Bahamas, producing a map to show which properties around the island were within the storm surge flood zone. The northern islands of the Bahamas had been battered by 19 feet (six meters) of storm surge in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd and flooded again in 2004 Hurricanes’ Frances and Jeanne.  

While wandering around the poorer, south side of Nassau, I came across a single-story building, probably a community center or clinic, with barred windows, on which was written “Hurricane Shelter”. It was sufficiently surprising that I even took (and kept) a photo – see below, for the “Hurricane Shelter” was only two to three feet above sea level. If people gathered at this shelter as a strong hurricane approached, they would be placing themselves in mortal danger from an accompanying storm surge.  

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SiteIQ: The Power of Now

The democratizion of risk data is a core mission for RMS; to provide relevant, timely risk insight to everyone who needs it, designed for every role in the business, from those on the frontline of underwriting, through to those responsible for the entire portfolio. Delivered through simple, elegant applications, by ensuring relevant data gets to every area of a business you can build empowered teams that can take effective decisions.

SiteIQ is a great example of this data democratization in action. This application pulls property results from RMS catastrophe models – and supported by qualified third-party data such as crime scores and fire protection measures, it provides an understanding of which hazards are applicable for each location at the point of risk-selection. Risk scores from one to ten, red-amber-green referral advice, high resolution hazard maps, and loss cost data – is all delivered in seconds.

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Northern Bahamas Devastated by Major Hurricane Dorian

Initial reports from the Bahamas suggest that the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama have been left devastated from Major Hurricane Dorian, evoking memories of the destruction on the eastern Caribbean island of Barbuda in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Irma just two years ago.

A Record-Breaking Hurricane for the Bahamas and the Atlantic

Dorian underwent an unprecedented period of rapid intensification between August 31 and September 1, that took its maximum sustained wind speed from 150 miles per hour to 185 miles per hour. No other Atlantic hurricane on record has intensified as rapidly as this from such a high initial wind speed. Dorian joins an exclusive group of Atlantic hurricanes to attain wind speeds of 185 miles per hour or greater: Allen (1980), Wilma (2005), Gilbert (1988), and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935).

Dorian maintained this intensity on September 1, and then made a series of landfalls – first across Great Abaco island, and on September 2 across Grand Bahama. In doing so, Dorian became the strongest hurricane in modern records to strike the northwestern Bahamas. As the Category 5 hurricane traversed the islands, its forward speed slowed and it became near stationary over Grand Bahama for roughly 36 hours before gradually moving northwest. Dorian’s eyewall subjected some areas of these islands to destructive wind gusts of up to 220 miles per hour (354 kilometers per hour) and catastrophic storm surge in excess of 20 feet (6 meters).

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Tracking Hurricane Dorian: Understanding Forecast Uncertainty

Hurricane Dorian looks set to pass over the northern Bahamas in the coming days as potentially a Category 5 major hurricane, but forecasts regarding future U.S. impacts remain significantly uncertain, with the latest guidance providing a twist in the tale that no one anticipated a few days ago.

Understanding the Uncertainty: A Matter of Timing

The meteorological situation that Hurricane Dorian finds itself in is as fascinating as it is uncertain. Several days ago, Florida was bracing itself for potentially its third major hurricane landfall in as many years. Now, Dorian looks more likely to make landfall in the Carolinas, or, as some models increasingly suggest, it may recurve soon enough that is misses the U.S. entirely. So, why have the forecasts been so uncertain? It’s all to do with timing.

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