Author Archives: Michael Young

Michael Young

About Michael Young

Vice President, Model Product Management, RMS

Michael leads a team that establishes requirements and features for all of the RMS North and South America climate models. Michael's responsibilities include overseeing the submission of RMS products to regulatory reviewers, such as the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLMP).

Michael has led studies of insurance mitigation programs for the state of Florida, as well as the World Bank. In his past 14 years at RMS, Michael has also worked as a lead wind vulnerability engineer, a director of claims and exposure development, and as the head of the mitigation practice. He has worked in commercial wind-tunnel laboratories doing studies on wind loads for a variety of buildings.

Before joining RMS, he was involved in the development of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) HAZUS-MH software for hurricane risk assessment, and he taught courses on the use of HAZUS hurricane and flood components. Michael has also led studies on mitigation cost effectiveness for building codes such as the 2001 Florida Building Code and the North Carolina Building Code.

Michael holds a bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering and a master's degree from the University of Western Ontario in Canada in Wind Engineering.

U.S. Wildfire: Mitigation Really Matters

It has been a year since the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California’s history. The Camp Fire burnt some 153,336 acres, starting at Camp Creek Road, two miles from the small community of Concow, Butte County in Northern California. A fire was reported at 6.33 a.m. local time on Thursday, November 8, 2018, and spread to Concow within 30 minutes and by 8 a.m. had moved quickly west to the town of Paradise (pop. ~26,800).

The town was devastated within hours, as embers driven by 50 miles per hour winds created an urban conflagration which saw 80 to 90 percent of the town destroyed. The fire took 15 days to fully contain. Overall, the fire destroyed a total of 18,804 structures, and killed 85 people.

The insurance industry is also still reeling after both last year’s and the previous year’s record-breaking California wildfire seasons with US$23 billion in insured losses. All eyes are on the current events as a quiet early season has morphed into an active late season, as the Kincade Fire in Sonoma County that started on October 23, burnt some 77,758 acres and destroyed 374 structures according to CAL FIRE. The Kincade Fire is now the largest ever wildfire in Sonoma County.

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New Era of U.S. Wildfire Modeling Begins with Risk Modeler

The last two North America wildfire seasons have seen total insured losses skyrocket to over US$23 billion – compared to 1991-2010 where average annual losses totaled US$600 million. Wildfire has staked its claim as a major U.S. peril, with events now consistently topping the multi-billion dollar mark. Four of the five all-time biggest wildfire events occurred in 2017 and 2018, and seven wildfires exceeded the US$1 billion threshold in this timeframe. 

When the WUI is Not Enough

Wildfire risk can no longer be managed through accumulation strategies, hazard zoning, or simple extrapolation of historical data because the fundamental drivers of wildfire risk are changing:  

All these factors mean that past losses cannot be easily extrapolated to predict future risk levels. Instead, the industry needs tools from a probabilistic catastrophe model to properly capture future wildfire risk. 

Wildfire risk is not limited to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) anymore. The figure below shows DINS (Damage Inspection) data from CAL FIRE overlaid on the burn perimeter for the 2017 Tubbs Fire in Northern California. Almost half of the destroyed structures in that fire came from areas considered to have no wildfire risk since they are in sub-urban areas classified as non-burnable by existing risk scoring methods. It is not sufficient to manage insurance portfolios with simple hazard zoning approaches. 

Figure One: DINS (Damage Inspection) data from CAL FIRE overlaid on the burn perimeter for the 2017 Tubbs Fire in Northern California
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California Wildfire: Another Record-Breaking Year?

Memories of last year’s Wine Country fires in Northern California and the Thomas Fire in Southern California are top of mind as we look at the unfolding wildfire events across the state, especially the notable Carr Fire to the northwest of the city of Redding in Shasta County, with a population of around 92,000.

Initial observations show similarities to the Wine Country fires in terms of its speed and ferocity, as the Carr Fire spread rapidly overnight on Saturday, July 28, nearly doubling in size. As of 02:00 UTC on Thursday, August 2, the fire is reported to have burned about 121,000 acres (~49,000 hectares) — see figure one below, destroying 1,546 structures, damaging an additional 255 structures, and forcing the evacuation of 38,000 people, according to CAL FIRE and local officials.

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Calculating the Insured Loss After Maria

Michael Young, Head of Americas Climate Model Product Management, RMS

The story of Hurricane Maria, the thirteenth named storm of the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, really started with landfall over Dominica on Tuesday, September 19 — as a category 5 hurricane. It was then Puerto Rico’s turn. As Maria approached, the system did weaken slightly during an eyewall replacement cycle, and made landfall on Wednesday, September 20, near Yabucoa, as a category 4 hurricane. It was the most intense landfalling hurricane for the island since the 1928 San Felipe Segundo Hurricane, with RMS HWind reporting maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour).

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