Author Archives: Jara Imbers Quintana

Jara Imbers Quintana

About Jara Imbers Quintana

Principal Modeler

Jara joined the RMS Model Development team in October 2012. In her role as a senior catastrophe modeler, Jara worked on various components of the RMS North Atlantic and North West Pacific tropical cyclone models, including historical reconstructions. Currently, Jara leads the Medium-Term Rates for the North Atlantic Hurricane Models.

Prior to starting at RMS, Jara held a postdoctoral research position at the Department of Applied Mathematics, Oxford University, working on uncertainty analysis of climate change. Jara holds an MPhys in Theoretical Physics and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the University of Nottingham.

How Did the 2017-2018 Hurricanes Affect Medium-Term Rates?

Earlier this year, RMS released its latest medium-term rates (MTR) forecast for the North Atlantic hurricane basin as part of the North Atlantic Hurricane Models Version 18.1 release. Applicable over the 2019-2023 period, the Version 18.1 forecast represents an update from the previous MTR forecast issued in 2017 for the 2017-2021 period, by reflecting hurricane activity from the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

The MTR forecast provides a forward-looking estimate of the expected average annual landfall rate on a five-year horizon. Available alongside the long-term rates (LTRs) – a view of hurricane frequency based on the climatological average for the period from 1900 onwards, MTRs provide an additional perspective on expected hurricane rates on a shorter timescale. This allows RMS to adjust our view of risk according to the observed climate variability, and to combine different scientific theories on the drivers of hurricane variability over time, ultimately providing a view of landfalling hurricane risk that best represents the near-term basin conditions.

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