Conor is a senior consultant in the Capital and Resilience Solutions team in London. He works on a broad range of catastrophe bond transactions, and has particular experience in modeling parametric structures, leading on recent innovative transactions including MetroCat Re Ltd. 2017-1.
Additionally, Conor researches the application of catastrophe models to public sector resilience initiatives. This includes modeling critical urban infrastructure in Mexico for 100 Resilient Cities, modeling linear transport networks in coastal U.S. states, and working with the U.K. Department for International Development to assess the suitability of a catastrophe risk pool in Asia.
Conor holds a masters in Natural Sciences from the University of Cambridge.
It has been reported that the current Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, which has caused over 1,300 confirmed deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since its onset in August 2018, has now also caused at least one confirmed death in neighbouring Uganda.
The number of confirmed deaths has been steadily increasing since the onset of the outbreak, though since March there has been a notable increase in the reported number of deaths per week. A recent trend shows a slight decrease from the peak, with the current situation report recording 50 deaths among confirmed EVD cases in the past week (Figure 1 below).
While California wildfires may seem far removed from Atlantic storms, for capital markets investors the fires may make the difference to how 2018 is remembered. Insurance Linked Securities (ILS) eyes are now trained on multi-peril aggregate catastrophe bonds.
When catastrophe strikes, it is not unusual for the insurance payout to differ from the policyholder’s expectation. The possibility of such a discrepancy is referred to as “basis risk”. The term, however, can be ill-defined and easily misunderstood.
Therein lies the problem, without definition it is easy for the basis risk associated with a structure to remain unidentified and unquantified. If left unspoken, basis risk can lead to problems down the line, when events do occur. So, as a starting point, we can most simply define basis risk as the “difference between expectation and outcome”.