Almost three months ago we passed a
remarkable record in catastrophe loss.
And yet no one seems to want to
No banner headlines in the newspapers.
No speeches at the Monte Carlo Reinsurance Rendezvous.
The first half of 2019 generated the lowest catastrophe insurance loss for more than a decade. The estimates come in at: US$15 billion (Munich Re), US$19 billion (Sigma), or US$20 billion (Aon). In straight dollar terms, independent of any adjustment for inflation or exposure, this is lower than any year since 2006.
Power outages in Chiba Prefecture looked set to continue into the coming weeks as the region continues to recover from Typhoon Faxai. It was one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record in the seven prefectures of the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo and the strongest to impact the Greater Tokyo area since Typhoon Ma-on in 2004.
Two Landfalls as Faxai Travels Across Tokyo Bay
Faxai made a brief landfall over the Miura Peninsula, Kanagawa Prefecture in
the Kanto region of Japan, just 35 miles (57 kilometers) south-southwest of
Tokyo early morning local time on Monday, September 9. The center of the
typhoon then tracked northeast across Tokyo Bay and made a second landfall over
the city of Chiba (pop. ~979,000), Chiba Prefecture, Japan, 20 miles (32
kilometers) east of Tokyo.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Faxai had maximum sustained wind speeds of 102 to 106 miles per hour (165 to 170 kilometers per hour) at its landfalls, equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The year 2020 is just months away, and in the latest edition of EXPOSURE — the RMS magazine for risk management professionals, we consider some of the changes that the (re)insurance industry will have undergone in ten years’ time. Mohsen Rahnama, Cihan Biyikoglu and Moe Khosravy from RMS tackle the issues, examining the evolution of risk management, the drivers of technological change, and how all roads lead to a common, collaborative industry platform.
In late 2005 I was on New Providence Island, Bahamas, producing
a map to show which properties around the island were within the storm surge
flood zone. The northern islands of the Bahamas had been battered by 19 feet (six
meters) of storm surge in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd and flooded again in 2004
Hurricanes’ Frances and Jeanne.
While wandering around the poorer, south side of Nassau, I came across a single-story building, probably a community center or clinic, with barred windows, on which was written “Hurricane Shelter”. It was sufficiently surprising that I even took (and kept) a photo – see below, for the “Hurricane Shelter” was only two to three feet above sea level. If people gathered at this shelter as a strong hurricane approached, they would be placing themselves in mortal danger from an accompanying storm surge.
democratizion of risk data is a core mission for RMS; to provide relevant,
timely risk insight to everyone who needs it, designed for every role in the
business, from those on the frontline of underwriting, through to those
responsible for the entire portfolio. Delivered through simple, elegant
applications, by ensuring relevant data gets to every area of a business you
can build empowered teams that can take effective decisions.
SiteIQ is a great example of this data democratization in action. This application pulls property results from RMS catastrophe models – and supported by qualified third-party data such as crime scores and fire protection measures, it provides an understanding of which hazards are applicable for each location at the point of risk-selection. Risk scores from one to ten, red-amber-green referral advice, high resolution hazard maps, and loss cost data – is all delivered in seconds.
Initial reports from the Bahamas suggest that the islands of
Great Abaco and Grand Bahama have been left devastated from Major Hurricane
Dorian, evoking memories of the destruction on the eastern Caribbean island of Barbuda
in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Irma just two years ago.
A Record-Breaking Hurricane for the Bahamas and the Atlantic
Dorian underwent an unprecedented period of rapid intensification between August 31 and September 1, that took its maximum sustained wind speed from 150 miles per hour to 185 miles per hour. No other Atlantic hurricane on record has intensified as rapidly as this from such a high initial wind speed. Dorian joins an exclusive group of Atlantic hurricanes to attain wind speeds of 185 miles per hour or greater: Allen (1980), Wilma (2005), Gilbert (1988), and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935).
Dorian maintained this intensity on September 1, and then made a series of landfalls – first across Great Abaco island, and on September 2 across Grand Bahama. In doing so, Dorian became the strongest hurricane in modern records to strike the northwestern Bahamas. As the Category 5 hurricane traversed the islands, its forward speed slowed and it became near stationary over Grand Bahama for roughly 36 hours before gradually moving northwest. Dorian’s eyewall subjected some areas of these islands to destructive wind gusts of up to 220 miles per hour (354 kilometers per hour) and catastrophic storm surge in excess of 20 feet (6 meters).