At the start of the RMS Exceedance conference in New Orleans in March this year, I was interviewed for A.M. Best TV on terrorism risk, and specifically asked what I was envisaging for future terrorist attacks.
I replied that terrorists have been thwarted in their ability to produce large explosives for vehicle bombs, and are likely to use vehicles for ramming groups of people. Less than a day later, on March 22, 2017, such an attack took place on Westminster Bridge, London. Over the summer, several other terrorist vehicle ramming attacks have occurred in London, and one in Barcelona.
The first U.S. terrorist attack of the Trump presidency has also employed this attack mode. It occurred around 3 p.m. Eastern Time on Halloween in Lower Manhattan. A rented pick-up truck was driven along the West Side Highway bike path, killing eight people and injuring another eleven. It has been reported that the driver was 29 year-old Sayfullo Saipov, an Uzbek national, who was radicalized domestically. News reports state that he had left a note stating that the attack had been done in the name of ISIS.
Terrorism is the language of being noticed: this attack took place just a few blocks from the 9/11 Memorial. This location supports the RMS modeling of terrorist targeting, which has always featured name recognition as the key factor. RMS modeling is uniquely based on universal principles, which are as true now as they were in 2002 when the first model was launched. One such principle is that terrorists follow the path of least resistance in their operations. If you can’t use chemical energy in an attack, use kinetic energy. Instead of vehicle bombing, try vehicle ramming.
The core principles that underpin RMS terrorism modeling allow events to be forecast in a manner that is not even achievable for natural hazards. An earthquake underwriter may well ponder where the next U.S. earthquake will occur, and how large it might be. Back at Exceedance in March, a terrorism risk underwriter might have guessed that the next U.S. terrorist attack would have been a vehicle ramming event in Manhattan.