Nine Years After Darfield: When an Earthquake Drives a New Model – Part Two

The Liquefaction Model

The 2010 M7.1 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand started a sequence of events – the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), that propagated eastward in the Canterbury region over several years. Since the City of Christchurch is built on alluvial sediments where the water table is very shallow, several of the larger events created widespread liquefaction within the city and surrounding areas. Such ground deformations caused a significant number of buildings with shallow foundations to settle, tilt and deform.

Prior to these New Zealand earthquakes, liquefaction was observed but not on this scale in a built-up area in a developed country. As in previous well-studied liquefaction events (e.g. 1964 Niigata) this was a unique opportunity to examine liquefaction severity and building responses. Christchurch was referred to as a “liquefaction laboratory” with the multiple events causing different levels of shaking across the city. However, we had not previously seen suburbs of insured buildings damaged by liquefaction.

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Nine Years After Darfield: When an Earthquake Drives a New Model – Part One

The Source Model

The 2010 M7.1 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand started a sequence of events that propagated eastward in the Canterbury region over several years, collectively causing upward of 15 individual loss-causing events for the insurance industry. The Insurance Council of New Zealand state that the total insured loss was more than NZ$31 billion (US$19.4 billion).

With such a significant sequence of events, a lot had to be learned and reflected into earthquake risk modeling, both to be scientifically robust and to answer the new regulatory needs. GNS Science – the New Zealand Crown Research Institute, had issued its National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) in 2010, before the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) and before Tōhoku. The model release was a major project, and at the time, in response to the CES, GNS only had the bandwidth for a mini-update to the 2010 models, to allow M9 events on the Hikurangi Subduction Interface, New Zealand’s largest plate boundary fault, and to get a working group started on Canterbury earthquake rates.

But given the high penetration rate of earthquake insurance in New Zealand and the magnitude of the damage in the Canterbury region, the (re)insurance and regulatory position was in transition. Rather than wait for a new National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHMP) update (which is still in not available), RMS joined the national effort and started a collaboration with GNS Science as well as our own research, to build a model that would help during this difficult time, when many rebuild decisions had to be made. The RMS® New Zealand Earthquake High Definition (HD) model was released in mid-2016.

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The Unrehabilitated Terrorist

A few hundred yards from where Stephen Hawking first explored black holes from his wheelchair, is the Institute of Criminology at the University of Cambridge. Hawking never shied away from really hard problems; nor do the Cambridge criminologists. There is no Nobel Prize for finding viable solutions to rehabilitating prisoners, but the Cambridge Learning Together program has forged new communal pathways for addressing this major societal challenge. The program seeks to bring together people in criminal justice and higher education institutions to study alongside each other in inclusive and transformative learning communities.

The Learning Together program began at the University of Cambridge in 2014, in partnership with HMP Grendon, a small prison at a village named Grendon Underwood, outside London. This program recognizes that collaboration underpins the growth of opportunities for the learning progression of students in prison, and the development of pathways towards non-offending futures.

Five years on, a celebration alumni event was organized for Black Friday, November 29. This took place in the City of London, at Fishmongers’ Hall, off London Bridge. This happens to be close to the Monument, where the RMS London office is situated.

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How to Deliver Sea Level Data

Global sea levels are rising. After two thousand years of stability, the transition to continuous coastal change will be jarring (although this is what our shoreline ancestors experienced more than 6,000 years ago). By the end of this century, millions of people will need to relocate. An estimated two trillion dollars of assets lies within the first meter above extreme high tide.  

Future sea levels” is one of seven “Grand Challenges” of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Through the week of November 11, leading experts from around the world met in Orléans at the headquarters of the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), the French geological survey.

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Venice in Peril

The first time I noticed the coincidence I assumed there had been a mistake. The most-costly flooding in modern Italian history inundated the city of Florence on November 4, 1966. The Arno river burst its banks and flooded the low-lying heart of the city, with six meters (19.6 feet) of water in some riverine streets. A hundred people died and three to four million priceless medieval books and manuscripts along with precious artworks stored in basements, were damaged and destroyed. It was the worst flood in the city for at least 400 years.

Flood marker on a Venice street. Image credit: Wikimedia

But then the highest measured storm surge flood “acqua alta” in Venice, reached 1.94 meters above the sea level datum, on the same day in November 1966: November 4.   

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Crossing the Terrorism Casualty Protection Gap

This blog was first published as an article in Insurance Day

The victims of the Las Vegas shooter Stephen Paddock, the injured and the dependents of the 57 who died have one comfort following their tragic predicament. Their vicious and indiscriminate attacker (whose reported comments get the attack classified as “domestic terrorism”) chose to fire at the 20,000-plus crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Hotel, part of the MGM chain with a US$735 million liability insurance coverage. As a result (reflecting in part the “moral hazard” of insurance limits), the victims will receive the distribution (after substantial lawyers’ fees) of a near-US$800 million settlement.

In the lead-up to the attack on October 1, 2017, Paddock had researched renting a high-rise condo in Las Vegas and also explored the crowd numbers on the beach at Santa Monica and considered other festivals to target in Boston and Chicago. If he had chosen to shoot from a residential building or clifftop, to the same effect, the only compensation the victims could have expected would have been the US$11 million raised in a public appeal after the shooting: equal to around US$200,000 for each of those who died. As it is, their compensation should work out 30 times more generous.

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Did Ridgecrest Increase the Chances of a Large Seismic Event?

Interest in the 160-mile-long Garlock Fault, the second-largest fault in California, has been piqued recently after a Los Angeles Times article about deformation on the Garlock Fault due to the Ridgecrest sequence of events in July 2019. Since the publication of this article, RMS has received information requests focused around two main points.

First, does RMS believe that Ridgecrest impacted the Garlock Fault (and possibly others), and has therefore increased the probability of a rupture there? Second, does RMS support the assumption from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that the most likely scenario is that the Ridgecrest quakes probably won’t trigger a larger earthquake, but have raised the chances of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or more on the nearby Garlock, Owens Valley, Blackwater and Panamint Valley faults over the next year. And how would RMS recommend that clients model and capture this increased risk?

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Cyberterrorism: A Risk Assessment

Technological advances in communications, computing and computer networks are exposing new vulnerabilities that terrorist groups can exploit, making cyberterrorism a potential security concern. The media has extensively discussed this issue, invoking images of massive economic losses and even larger-scale loss of life from a cyberattack executed by a terrorist group. But just how real is the threat that cyberterrorism poses? Fortunately, the fear surrounding this issue outpaces the magnitude of the risk, and in this blog I will attempt to investigate.  

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U.S. Wildfire: Mitigation Really Matters

It has been a year since the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California’s history. The Camp Fire burnt some 153,336 acres, starting at Camp Creek Road, two miles from the small community of Concow, Butte County in Northern California. A fire was reported at 6.33 a.m. local time on Thursday, November 8, 2018, and spread to Concow within 30 minutes and by 8 a.m. had moved quickly west to the town of Paradise (pop. ~26,800).

The town was devastated within hours, as embers driven by 50 miles per hour winds created an urban conflagration which saw 80 to 90 percent of the town destroyed. The fire took 15 days to fully contain. Overall, the fire destroyed a total of 18,804 structures, and killed 85 people.

The insurance industry is also still reeling after both last year’s and the previous year’s record-breaking California wildfire seasons with US$23 billion in insured losses. All eyes are on the current events as a quiet early season has morphed into an active late season, as the Kincade Fire in Sonoma County that started on October 23, burnt some 77,758 acres and destroyed 374 structures according to CAL FIRE. The Kincade Fire is now the largest ever wildfire in Sonoma County.

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Cyber Risk Under the Spotlight: RMS and NetDiligence #ChatCyberRisk

The Twitterverse got its chance to pose cyber risk questions to a panel of distinguished experts at the NetDiligence® Cyber Risk Summit in Santa Monica on October 16. RMS and NetDiligence teamed up to host a live #ChatCyberRisk Q&A session at the conference. The experts on hand included Vinny Sakore, Chief Technology Officer, NetDiligence; Russell Thomas, Principal Engineer – Cyber, RMS and Christos Mitas, Vice President – Model Development, RMS.

Which cyberattacks will grow in prominence? Vinny Sakore sees more and more attacks against individuals – especially high net worth individuals, with personal cyber insurance coverage becoming an important issue in the future.

And the biggest driver of cyber risk for organizations? Russell Thomas stated that the main ones remain; contagious malware (including ransomware) and data theft/exfiltration will continue to be the most prominent types of attacks with potential for severe or catastrophic loss to victims. The number of attacks will also grow as more firms, government organizations, schools, etc. become more dependent on automated processes and e-commerce. Financial risk due to business interruption stands out as the immediate risk driver; in a 2018 survey of 1,300 global companies, 34 percent of companies reported business interruption due to cyberattack.

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